Prospects for African economies in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Prospects for African economies in 2019. Significance Sub-Saharan Africa’s gradual recovery is set to strengthen in 2019 with regional GDP growth seen accelerating to 3.1% from 2.7% in 2018, led by recoveries in the three largest economies -- Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to average around 4% over the medium term, reflecting continuing convergence between high- and low-performing countries, although wide disparities will persist.

Prospects for Africa's economies to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Idiosyncratic Shocks ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Eastern And Southern Africa

Subject Prospects for Africa's economies to end-2016. Significance The IMF's most recent forecast of 3% GDP growth for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2016 represents a significant cut from the 4.25% it expected in October 2015. This is a consequence of sharp slowdowns in the region's two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, droughts in previously buoyant economies (notably in eastern and southern Africa), a variety of idiosyncratic shocks and a prolonged commodity price downturn.

Prospects for African economies to end-2018

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Political Transitions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Policy Shifts

Subject Prospects for African Economies. Significance Sub-Saharan African economies are expected to expand by 3.4% this year, up from 2.8% in 2017, reflecting continued recovery in the two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa). However, medium-term growth is forecast to remain below 4%, as the consequences of delayed and insufficient policy responses to the commodities crisis take time to resolve. Some rapidly growing non-resource exporters (Ivory Coast, Senegal) could also slow under the weight of rising debt distress, particularly if private sources of growth fail to emerge. Political transitions in other countries (Angola, Zimbabwe) could be auspicious for the region's investment attractiveness -- if positive policy shifts develop further.

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emission in BRICS

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 248-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umer Jeelanie Banday ◽  
Ranjan Aneja
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Purpose The purpose of this study is to find the causal relationship among energy consumption (renewable energy and non-renewable energy), gross domestic product (GDP) growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa for the period of 1990-2017. Design/methodology/approach The study uses bootstrap Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test, which accepts heterogeneity and dependency in cross-sectional units across emerging countries. Findings The results find unidirectional causality from GDP to CO2 for India, China, Brazil, South Africa and no causality for Russia. The causality results from renewable energy consumption to GDP show that there is evidence of feedback hypothesis for China and Brazil, growth hypothesis for Russia, conservation hypothesis for South Africa and neutrality hypothesis for India. However, the results accept growth hypothesis for India, China, Russia, Brazil and neutrality hypothesis for South Africa. In the case of renewable energy and non-renewable energy consumption to CO2 emission, the results find convergence in India, Russia and South Africa and divergence in China and Brazil. Originality/value It is the first study that investigates the part of balanced economic growth, instead of simply financial development in those economies. Numerous studies have used diverse factors such as economic development, renewable energy, non-renewable energy and CO2 emission; however, the examination has used total GDP growth rate, energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

Innovation, institutions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa – an IV estimation of a panel threshold model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Ato Forson ◽  
Rosemary Afrakomah Opoku ◽  
Michael Owusu Appiah ◽  
Evans Kyeremeh ◽  
Ibrahim Anyass Ahmed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe significant impact of innovation in stimulating economic growth cannot be overemphasized, more importantly from policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between innovation and economic growth in developing economies such as the ones in Africa has remained topical. Yet, innovation as a concept is multi-dimensional and cannot be measured by just one single variable. With hindsight of the traditional measures of innovation in literature, we augment it with the number of scientific journals published in the region to enrich this discourse.Design/methodology/approachWe focus on an approach that explores innovation policy qualitatively from various policy documents of selected countries in the region from three policy perspectives (i.e. institutional framework, financing and diffusion and interaction). We further investigate whether innovation as perceived differently is important for economic growth in 25 economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1990–2016. Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold regression is used to capture the contributions of innovation as a multi-dimensional concept on economic growth, while dealing with endogeneity between the regressors and error term.FindingsThe results from both traditional panel regressions and IV panel threshold regressions show a positive relationship between innovation and economic growth, although the impact seems negligible. Institutional quality dampens innovation among low-regime economies, and the relation is persistent regardless of when the focus is on aggregate or decomposed institutional factors. The impact of innovation on economic growth in most regressions is robust to different dimensions of innovation. Yet, the coefficients of the innovation variables in the two regimes are quite dissimilar. While most countries in the region have offered financial support in the form of budgetary allocations to strengthen institutions, barriers to the design and implementation of innovation policies may be responsible for the sluggish contribution of innovation to the growth pattern of the region.Originality/valueSegregating economies of Africa into two distinct regimes based on a threshold of investment in education as a share of GDP in order to understand the relationship between innovation and economic growth is quite novel. This lends credence to the fact that innovation as a multifaceted concept does not take place by chance – it is carefully planned. We have enriched the discourse of innovation and thus helped in deepening understanding on this contentious subject.

Interactive effects of human capital in finance–economic growth nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1192-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muazu Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Interactive Effect ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactive effect of human capital in financial development–economic growth nexus. Relative to the quantity-based measure of enrolment rates, the main aim was to determine how quality of human capital proxied by pupil–teacher ratio influences the relationship between domestic financial sector development and overall economic growth. Design/methodology/approach Data are obtained from the World Development Indicators of the World Bank for 29 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1980–2014. The analyses were conducted using the system generalised method of moments within the endogenous growth framework while controlling for country-specific and time effects. The author also follows Papke and Wooldridge procedure in examining the long-run estimates of the variables of interest. Findings The key finding is that, while both human capital and financial development unconditionally promotes growth in both the short and long run, results from the interactive terms suggest that, irrespective of the measure of finance, financial sector development largely spurs growth on the back of quality human capital. This finding is also confirmed by the marginal and net effects where the interactive effect of pupil–teacher ratio and indicators of finance are consistently huge relative to the enrolment. Statistically, the results are robust to model specification. Practical implications While it is laudable for SSA countries to increase access to education, it is equally more crucial to increase the supply of teachers at the same time improving on the limited teaching and learning materials. Indeed, there are efforts to develop rather low levels of the financial sector owing to its unconditional growth effects. Beyond the direct benefit of finance, however, higher growth effect of finance is conditioned on the quality level of human capital. The outcome of this study should therefore reignite the recognition of the complementarity role of human capital and finance in economic growth process. Originality/value The study makes significant contributions to existing finance–growth literature in so many ways: first, the auhor extend the literature by empirically examining how different measures of human capital shape the finance–economic growth nexus. Through this the author is able to bring a different perspective in the literature highlighting the role of countries’ human capital stock in mediating the impact of financial deepening on economic growth. Second, the author makes a more systematic attempt to evaluate the relative importance of finance and human capital in growth process while controlling for several ancillary variables.

Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Khee Giap ◽  
Nguyen Le Phuong Anh ◽  
Ye Ye Denise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

Purpose Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both Singapore and Malaysia are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that necessitate a course-correction in order to sustain their growth momentum, going forward. In light of the renewed interest in understanding the growth constraints faced by the two countries, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs a novel empirical approach-the Geweke causality analysis-to investigate the causal drivers of economic growth in Singapore and Malaysia. Intuitively, the Geweke causality analysis helps us understand and measure the linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series variables. To that effect, we perform both a bi-variate as well as a multi-variate causality analysis. Findings The empirical results established using Geweke causality analysis suggest that Malaysia's new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector. The results also suggest that Singapore, on the other hand, should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth as the linear dependence between FDI and real GDP growth appears to be weaker compared to the linear dependence between the remaining variables and the real GDP growth. Originality/value While the traditional growth accounting framework provides useful insights at the aggregate level, there is a growing literature that discusses the importance of sectoral analysis to understand structural transformations in the economies which become important to sustain productivity growth in the long-run. This is immensely relevant in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, as well, especially with the changing policy focus in these countries to overcome structural growth issues. In light of this growing discussion on the importance of understanding the growth dynamics at the sectoral level, this paper presents new empirical evidence on the growth drivers in Singapore and Malaysia with a sectoral focus.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Philippines institutional erosion likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Institutional Stability

Significance Duterte is a powerful president with strong support among elected Philippine politicians and the public. Nevertheless, his methods are stoking controversy with concerns of an 'elected dictatorship' which could undermine Philippine judicial, legislative and executive institutions' integrity. Impacts Investor concern is unlikely unless they perceive that the crime crackdown is out of control. Growing personalisation of political power will weaken the congress, including its capacity and will to scrutinise laws. The medium-term risk to institutional stability and credibility could see ratings downgrades. Equally, a successful crime crackdown could aid economic growth and internal security.

Future Nigeria cabinet will not solve economic crunch

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Regional Bias ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Chief Of Staff ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Nigeria. Significance The National Bureau of Statistics on August 26 announced that GDP growth slowed to 2.35% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 6.54% in the year-earlier period. This is the lowest figure since quarterly records began in 2006. It adds pressure on President Muhammadu Buhari to articulate a detailed, medium-term plan to revive growth. Impacts Buhari's cabinet appointments are likely to reflect the technocrat character of those recently appointed as heads of lead federal agencies. However, if personnel choices also continue to be drawn primarily from the north, domestic unease will grow over a regional bias. Despite his credentials, Buhari's new Chief of Staff Alhaji Abba Kyari may face difficulties negotiating the government's reform agenda.

Tensions to shape, but not derail, Ivory Coast poll

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
User Fees ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High User ◽  
Infrastructure Investments

Significance The most serious challenger to President Alassane Ouattara's re-election, N'Guessan's candidacy probably marks the end of election boycotts by FPI, but rifts linger from the 2010-11 civil war. Impacts Large-scale infrastructure investments will facilitate medium-term economic growth, despite possible volatility around the election. Foreign investors are likely to refrain from making major decisions before the poll but inflows will pick up in 2016. High user fees for the new Henri Konan Bedie toll bridge in Abidjan will probably reduce congestion by commuters. High global cocoa prices and robust output (Ivory Coast is the world's largest producer) will buoy government revenues.

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