Burkina junta face battle consolidating takeover

Significance The military coup, which began on September 16, has dealt a major blow towards restoring constitutional order. The 'soft coup' ousting last year of former President Blaise Compaore was on the back of a popular insurrection. This new coup represents a grab for power by old regime members. Presidential and legislative elections due on October 11 are unlikely to take place as scheduled. Impacts Prolonged unrest in Burkina will jeopardise the ability of France and the United States to use the country as a counterterrorism base. Compaore's possible role in the coup, from his current base in Ivory Coast, could embarrass the Ivorian president's own re-election bid. If the crisis persists, Burkina's steady economic performance will be imperilled from suspensions in donor support.

Significance Rajoelina was installed as president following a military coup that toppled Ravalomanana in 2009. Following four years of protracted negotiations and pressure from international mediators, neither individual was allowed to contest the 2013 election. Given the longstanding rivalry between the two, there are fears over post-poll insecurity. Impacts A protracted dispute over the election results could undermine solid economic growth prospects (5.4% for 2019). The runoff’s outcome will set the tone for the conduct of the scheduled legislative elections in April and municipal polls in August. Failure to pursue key governance reforms, such as tackling corruption or curbing subsidies, could jeopardise donor support. Hery's backing for Ravalomanana in the runoff would give the latter important additional support from a network of elected officials.


Significance If Barrow is inaugurated, it will mark the first peaceful transfer of power since the country gained independence. Incumbent Yahya Jammeh, who seized power in a 1994 military coup, was widely expected to claim victory, despite widespread frustration. With the economy stagnant and the unemployment rate among the highest in West Africa, Barrow successfully united much of the political opposition. Jammeh's concession was unexpected given the repression that his security services employed prior to the election. Impacts A new administration will look to draw prominent figures from across The Gambia's ethnic groups. Security will remain taut ahead of the upcoming inauguration and legislative elections scheduled for April. The new government could renew its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC). There could be widespread calls for the prosecution of Jammeh, which may provoke unrest within the military and new coup fears.


2021 ◽  
Vol 115 (3) ◽  
pp. 558-567

On February 1, 2021, the military in Burma overthrew the democratically elected government, declared a one-year state of emergency, and installed Senior General Min Aung Hlaing as the head of government. Since the coup, the military has cracked down on protestors, killing over 800 people and detaining many more. Numerous countries and international organizations, including the United States and the United Nations, have condemned the coup and ensuing violence and called for the restoration of a democratic government. The United States and other countries have also imposed rigorous sanctions on the Burmese military, its officials and affiliated corporations, and social media companies have imposed content restrictions to prevent the spread of pro-military propaganda.


2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-238
Author(s):  
Malika S. Tovsultanova ◽  
Rustam A. Tovsultanov ◽  
Lilia N. Galimova

In the 1970s, Turkey was in a state of political turbulence. Weak coalition governments changed frequently and could not bring order to the country. The city streets turned into an arena of battles for various armed radical groups of nationalist, communist, Islamist and separatist persuasions. For 9 years from 1971 to 1980, 10 governments changed in Turkey. The political crisis was accompanied by an economic downturn, expressed in hyperinflation and an increase in external debt. Chaos and anarchy caused discontent among Turkish financial circles and generals with the situation in the country and led to the idea of a military coup, already the third in the republican history of Turkey. The US State Department was extremely concerned about the situation in Turkey, hoping to find a reliable cover against further exports of communism and Islamism to the Middle East, approving the possibility of a coup. The coup was led by the chief of the General Staff K. Evren. Political events of the second half of the 1970s allow us to conclude that, despite the interest of the financial and military circles of the United States in it, the military coup on September 12, 1980 had mainly domestic political reasons.


Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.


Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.


Subject The political role of the armed forces. Significance The armed forces have recently assumed an unusually high political profile. The current government has appointed generals to high-level positions and ordered a large-scale intervention led by the army in Rio de Janeiro state security institutions. These measures, many of them unprecedented, are an attempt by President Michel Temer to boost his popularity as a ‘tough-on-crime’ leader. The armed forces are one of the few public institutions enjoying high levels of trust among Brazilians. Impacts Despite recent protest calls for a military coup, support for such a move is restricted to a radical minority. Resistance against further reliance on the military for domestic law enforcement will rise, including among senior officers. Bolsonaro will focus his message on crime, promising to bring more military members into his cabinet, including the Education Ministry.


Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.


Subject Kidal's significance. Significance In mid-February, the government deployed 600 soldiers and auxiliary forces to the far north-eastern city of Kidal and 200 more to Timbuktu, another key northern city. There are also plans to deploy troops to Menaka and Taoudenit. All these towns have been under the de facto control of shifting constellations of rebels, former rebels and militias since April 2012. The return of the military as part of a ‘reconstituted army’ consisting of one-third government soldiers, one-third former rebel fighters and one-third government-aligned militia members indicates a softening of tensions. Impacts The Kidal deployment may blunt some Western criticism of the Malian government’s performance. Legislative elections in March and talks with jihadists could yet change political balances in Kidal. Relations between the government and former rebels in the north are better now than in years. The Algiers Accord’s different provisions are so interconnected that the success of any one depends on agreement on multiple other elements.


1976 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. D. McKinlay ◽  
A. S. Cohan

The military regime has now become a common phenomenon throughout the world. Research on the military in low-income systems used to focus on the military coup rather than on the military regime, but in recent years this imbalance has lessened. Moreover, many of the old ‘standard findings’ about military regimes have come to be rejected. It is fitting that they should have been since they tended to be the products more of stereotyping and inadequate theorizing than of systematic research.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document