South Africa's president will battle to stay on

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Activity ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Campaign ◽  
International Standing

Significance This followed the publication of a public protector report the previous day outlining damaging evidence of alleged collusion between government ministers and Zuma associates, the Gupta family, including potential criminal activity. The report's findings have sparked fears of a constitutional crisis, with a commission of inquiry to be established within 30 days. Impacts Divisions between the ANC's nine provincial bodies will increase as pro- and anti-Zuma camps crystallise, leading to internal party unrest. The alliance between the ANC and its trade union partners will likely weaken further and hamper the party's 2019 electoral campaign. Pretoria's international standing could suffer further after the announcement that it wished to leave the International Criminal Court.

Burundi crisis will pose risks for the wider region

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Heads Of State

Subject Regional risks posed by the crisis in Burundi. Significance On January 31, the African Union (AU) heads of state voted against deploying a proposed 5,000-strong peacekeeping force to Burundi to quell violence triggered by President Pierre Nkurunziza's successful bid for a third term in office. The decision indicates tacit support by many leaders, some of whom are planning similar bids. Yet they remain concerned for the wider security implications should a full civil war erupt. Impacts Tanzania's new president, John Magufuli, is best placed to lead future peace talks given his strong standing regionally and internationally. If the crisis becomes genocidal, the UNSC may consider extending its DRC peacekeeping mission's mandate to include Burundi. AU opposition to the International Criminal Court means that Nkurunziza is unlikely to face charges if he steps down or is removed.

New Gambian president will re-engage the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Military

Significance If Barrow is inaugurated, it will mark the first peaceful transfer of power since the country gained independence. Incumbent Yahya Jammeh, who seized power in a 1994 military coup, was widely expected to claim victory, despite widespread frustration. With the economy stagnant and the unemployment rate among the highest in West Africa, Barrow successfully united much of the political opposition. Jammeh's concession was unexpected given the repression that his security services employed prior to the election. Impacts A new administration will look to draw prominent figures from across The Gambia's ethnic groups. Security will remain taut ahead of the upcoming inauguration and legislative elections scheduled for April. The new government could renew its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC). There could be widespread calls for the prosecution of Jammeh, which may provoke unrest within the military and new coup fears.

US ICC sanctions are unlikely but spats will come

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
The United States ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Existential Crisis ◽  
Us Military ◽  
International Human ◽  
Eastern And Southern Africa

Subject The United States, the International Criminal Court and international legal investigations. Significance The International Criminal Court (ICC) is being criticised for its paltry conviction record, alleged targeting of particular states and leaders and possibly existential crisis of being unable to prosecute many international criminals. On September 10, US National Security Advisor John Bolton questioned the ICC's legitimacy and applicability, threatening sanctions against its leadership if it pursued investigations against US military personnel for controversial incidents in Afghanistan or against US allies. Impacts African states may push the ICC to refocus away from eastern and southern Africa. Some leaders could use US criticisms of the ICC as cover to violate international human rights. Washington may increasingly seek bilateral protections against ICC involvement in US global activities. The ICC may recalibrate its approach to disputes, seeking other support for its activities.

Partisan politics will muddy Kenya's anti-graft probe

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Partisan Politics ◽  
Senior Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The Us ◽  
International Image ◽  
Step Down

Significance President Uhuru Kenyatta used his State of the Nation address on March 26 to demand that officials under investigation by the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) step down from office for 60 days. The EACC report is said to relate to past allegations from the Anglo-Leasing corruption scandal, which tarnished the former Mwai Kibaki administration. Kenyatta appears to be leveraging the aftermath of the collapse of his trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) to improve his government's image, albeit potentially for partisan ends. Impacts The US president's first planned trip to Kenya in July will boost the international image of Kenyatta's government, after previous snubs. Obama may mention climate change, as the issue is growing in importance to the White House as he nears the end of his term. However, US geopolitical interest in Africa will wax and wane, depending on the capacity of senior leaders.

Environmental crime could have corporate implications

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
National Level ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Supply Chain Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Paper ◽  
Environmental Crimes

Subject International Criminal Court jurisdiction over environmental crimes. Significance The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced in a policy paper on September 15 that it would include environmental destruction within the grounds on which it will bring charges for crimes against humanity. While this new policy memo does not expand the ICC's jurisdiction, it does clarify and expand the scope of what the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) reviews when considering which cases to bring, taking in new and possibly controversial areas. Impacts Financial services and consumer goods firms could face reputational risks from primary goods produced via environmental crimes. Greater scrutiny and trade integration could open up commercial opportunities for firms providing supply chain risk analysis services. Neglect of national-level environmental regulation could create international complications for companies within a state's jurisdiction.

Sudan takes calculated risk with Bashir and the ICC

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Crimes Against Humanity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Calculated Risk ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups

Subject Implications of former President Omar al-Bashir's possible handover to the ICC. Significance Sudan’s transitional authorities announced in February that former President Omar al-Bashir could be released to face charges of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide before the International Criminal Court (ICC). The announcement came in the context of peace negotiations with Darfuri armed opposition groups and followed an earlier agreement to establish a special criminal court to prosecute war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Darfur. Impacts ICC acceptance of a trial in Sudan could reinforce accusations of partial or selective justice, further harming the court's weak reputation. Bashir’s transfer to the ICC would remove one point of civilian-military tension in the transition process. Sending Bashir to the ICC is unlikely to generate much domestic backlash or protests from supporters.

New AU chair shows regional dynamics will persist

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
The Body ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Regional Competition ◽  
Heads Of State

Significance The AU Commission is effectively the secretariat of the AU. It has significantly less influence than the AU Assembly of Heads of State and Government, which determines AU policy and is currently headed by Guinean President Alpha Conde. However, the AU Commission plays an important role in shaping the rhetorical focus of the body and has the potential to draw attention to continental challenges. The position is also symbolically important -- competition for the post is fierce -- and highlights the ongoing battle for supremacy between different regional blocs. Impacts Regional competition will obstruct the cohesiveness of the AU. Multiple political crises on the continent will persist this year, challenging the AU’s efficacy. Statements of collective animosity toward the International Criminal Court (ICC) will not prompt a mass withdrawal. Faki will try to re-build bridges with Kenya and Senegal, whose candidates failed in bids for the Chair.

Philippines faces sustained pressure over drug war

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Criminal Prosecution ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Preliminary Examination

Significance In 2018, Duterte announced that he was withdrawing the Philippines from the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the organisation’s decision to launch a preliminary examination into alleged abuses committed during the crackdown. Impacts The drug war will remain popular domestically. External criticism over the crackdown will mount for the remainder of Duterte’s presidency. Duterte will champion a presidential candidate who promises to shield him from any criminal prosecution by the ICC.

Single Israeli-Palestinian state would be unstable

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Press Conference ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Shift

Significance This followed a policy shift by US President Donald Trump, who on February 15, in a joint press conference with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, announced that he was equally prepared to consider a two-state or a one-state option, whichever both parties preferred. This broke with US policy since the 1993 Oslo Agreement to support an independent Palestinian state as part of a final deal. Impacts Netanyahu, facing corruption charges at home, will placate the far-right members of his cabinet with an expansionist West Bank policy. The international community will fiercely resist any attempt to abandon the two-state solution. Israel could face a challenge to settler activity in the International Criminal Court, prompting a US backlash against the Court. The risk of a new Palestinian intifada and protests in other Arab countries would rise as the shape of the new negotiations becomes clear.

African presidents will weigh costs of leaving office

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
West African ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Violence ◽  
Support For Democracy

Significance Jammeh has rescinded his initial concession and is challenging the outcome. Across the continent, decisions of presidents to stand down from office are critical for avoiding electoral violence and pushing forward the process of democratic consolidation. When presidents stand down, it builds trust between rival parties and increases popular support for democracy. Presidents willing to transfer power peacefully also minimise the risk of political uncertainty and conflict. Impacts West African states may agree to provide Jammeh with a safe residence to support a smooth transfer of power. Declining opinions of democracy in the West could erode its appeal overall. Investigations into political leaders will continue to foment dissatisfaction with the International Criminal Court (ICC).

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