Fiscal dangers loom over Taiwan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Private Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment

Subject Taiwan's deteriorating fiscal situation. Significance Taiwan's GDP growth has been below 1% since early 2015 -- a marked slowdown since before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when rates in excess of 5% were normal. Yet the centre-left government of President Tsai Ing-wen, which took office in May, is sticking to a conservative fiscal policy. Impacts Government debt will increase further, but is far from reaching crisis-prone levels. Taiwan's debt is internal, so it can be digested by either fiscal adjustment or monetary policy. Planned tax increases to cope with growing fiscal expenditure will discourage private consumption and investment. More private business owners will relocate their wealth overseas where taxes are lower.

Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
The Real

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

scholarly journals RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF INDONESIAN POLICY CHOICES DURING FINANCIAL CRISIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tumpak Silalahi ◽  
Tevy Chawwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to review the impact of crisis and policy measures taken during the crisis, to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures and to analyze the exit strategy in Indonesia. The econometric model was used to evaluate the impact of monetary and fiscal policy to economic output using quarterly data from 1990 - 2010. The result shows that monetary and fiscal policies have significant impact to economic output. In the short run the changes in real GDP is significantly affected by changes in real monetary supply in the previous three quarter and real fiscal expenditures. The lesson learned from this research among other are that cooperation and coordination among the policy makers and the timely responses are very important in tackling the crisis; an effective conventional monetary policy in normal times may become less effective in a crisis thus unconventional monetary policy indeed necessary as timely policy response and the improvement for more timely disbursement of government expenditure is important to increase the effectiveness of this policy to stimulate economic output. Moreover, several Indonesian exit strategy and policies to face future challenges are very important to reach the ultimate objective of sustainable economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. JEL Classification : E52, E62, E63Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial sector policy, global financial crisis.

ECB to stay dovish despite ending its QE programme

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
European Central ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance Fears of Europe's financial fragility are rising after the ECB ended its quantitative easing (QE) programme in December. The programme -- which lasted almost four years -- bought over 2.5 trillion euros (2.9 trillion dollars) in government, corporate and covered bonds, as well as asset-backed securities. Impacts GDP growth may pick up in the fourth quarter after idiosyncratic factors hit July-September, but GDP will struggle to build momentum. When the next cyclical downturn hits, fiscal policy will have to help monetary policy in supporting the economy. An ECB rate hike in 2019 would allow Central-East European central banks to hike too, curbing inflationary pressures.

South Korea’s economy will suffer less than most

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Significance The impact exceeds that of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when GDP grew 0.8% in 2009. Much hinges on how fast massive stimulus measures kick in at home, and how major export markets fare. Impacts The service sector, hitherto a weaker driver of GDP growth than exports, will get a relative boost. Political conflicts will intensify as to whether unprecedented government spending is appropriately targeted, or fiscally sustainable. Moon’s government will use COVID-19 as cover for measures it was committed to in any case, and as an excuse if performance falls short.

Determinants of the global financial crisis recovery: an empirical assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Crisis Recovery ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the effect of the factors contributing to the recovery from this crisis in terms of national GDP growth among the G7, Asian7, and Latin American7 countries. Design/methodology/approach The author uses a multivariate regression analysis of the determinants of the global financial crisis recovery. Findings Based on data from 21 developed and developing emerging market economies the author found that good macroeconomic fundamentals together with more open financial policy, financial liberalization, financial depth, domestic performance, and favored global conditions do linearly influence national GDP growth. Over 85 percent of cross-country variations in GDP growth during the recovery phase of the global financial crisis can be explained by its linear dependency on pre-crisis national GDP growth, financial liberalization, financial depth, domestic performance, as well as interaction terms between various explanatory variables. Cross-country differences in national GDP growth also linearly depend on macroprudence and on favorable global conditions. Originality/value Results of such empirical examination may enable governments in developing countries devise resilience strategies that may serve as powerful tools for dealing with future global financial crises.

scholarly journals RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF INDONESIAN POLICY CHOICES DURING FINANCIAL CRISIS

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-228
Author(s):  
Tumpak Silalahi ◽  
Tevy Chawwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this paper is to review the impact of crisis and policy measures taken during the crisis, to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures and to analyze the exit strategy in Indonesia. The econometric model was used to evaluate the impact of monetary and fiscal policy to economic output using quarterly data from 1990 - 2010. The result shows that monetary and fiscal policies have significant impact to economic output. In the short run the changes in real GDP is significantly affected by changes in real monetary supply in the previous three quarter and real fiscal expenditures. The lesson learned from this research among other are that cooperation and coordination among the policy makers and the timely responses are very important in tackling the crisis; an effective conventional monetary policy in normal times may become less effective in a crisis thus unconventional monetary policy indeed necessary as timely policy response and the improvement for more timely disbursement of government expenditure is important to increase the effectiveness of this policy to stimulate economic output. Moreover, several Indonesian exit strategy and policies to face future challenges are very important to reach the ultimate objective of sustainable economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. JEL Classification : E52, E62, E63Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial sector policy, global financial crisis.

scholarly journals Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy on national saving

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-14
Author(s):  
Duy-Tung Bui
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Tax Policy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of fiscal policy, namely, net tax and government expenditure on national saving and its nonlinearity. The author first investigates whether the impacts of fiscal policy on national saving have changed after the global financial crisis of 2008. Then, the author tests the nonlinearity of the relationship by taking account of the economic cycle, namely, economic expansion (boom) and economic recession (bust). Design/methodology/approach The empirical model bases on a reduced-form equation with national saving as a dependent variable, lagged value of national saving, output gap and fiscal policy as independent variables. The two-step system GMM approach was employed to estimate the empirical model, using a panel of 23 emerging Asian economies in the period of 1990-2015. Findings The empirical results show that tax policy and expenditure policy follow the predictions of the overlapping generation model with finite horizon and the Keynesian view. The nonlinearity of fiscal policy is twofold. The conduct of fiscal policy in the period after 2008 seems effective, while the effect is insignificant in the period before 2008. Likewise, fiscal policy tends to have more significant effects in bust cycle. The effect of tax policy is increased during recession, while the effect of government spending is more pronounced during economic downturn. Originality/value The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is shown that fiscal policies in the region had more impacts on national saving after the global financial crisis of 2008. Second, the research confirms nonlinear impact of fiscal policy on saving behavior during economic recession and economic boom.

Indonesia's modest 2016 growth target is achievable

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for 2016. Significance GDP growth fell to 4.7% in 2015 -- the lowest level in six years and well below the government's 5.7% target. The rupiah, in September 2015, broke the 14,000 mark against the US dollar, its lowest level since the 1997-98 financial crisis. President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's economics team now aims to lift growth to 5.3% in 2016. Impacts Indonesia's potential membership in the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership is years away. Low inflation and a stable rupiah will help Bank Indonesia to ease monetary policy. Bolstering the weak manufacturing base will take years.

Inflation persistence and structural breaks

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 980-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giorgio Canarella ◽  
Stephen M. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on a sequential three-stage analysis of inflation persistence using monthly data from 11 inflation targeting (IT) countries and, for comparison, the USA, a non-IT country with a history of credible monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors estimate inflation persistence in a rolling-window fractional-integration setting using the semiparametric estimator suggested by Phillips (2007). Second, the authors use tests for unknown structural breaks as a means to identify effects of the regime switch and the global financial crisis on inflation persistence. The authors use the sequences of estimated persistence measures from the first stage as dependent variables in the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break tests. Finally, the authors reapply the Phillips (2007) estimator to the subsamples defined by the breaks. Findings Four countries (Canada, Iceland, Mexico, and South Korea) experience a structural break in inflation persistence that coincide with the implementation of the IT regime, and three IT countries (Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK), as well as the USA experience a structural break in inflation persistence that coincides with the global financial crisis. Research limitations/implications The authors find that in most cases the estimates of inflation persistence switch from mean-reversion nonstationarity to mean-reversion stationarity. Practical implications Monetary policy implications differ between pre- and post-global financial crisis. Social implications Global financial crisis affected the persistence of inflation rates. Originality/value First paper to consider the effect of the global financial crisis on inflation persistence.

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