Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

Prospects for China's economy in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
China’S Economy ◽  
Do So

Subject Prospects for China's economy in 2019. Significance China goes into 2019 dealing with US trade policy that is proving far more aggressive than Beijing had expected a year ago, when it was pursuing goals of deleveraging debt, reducing pollution and cutting overcapacity in specific industries, all the while keeping the economy on track for 6.5% GDP growth. Instead, Beijing has had selectively to loosen fiscal and monetary policy and put support for trade and investment ahead of the original goals. It will have to continue to do so while trade frictions persist.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2017. Significance GDP growth is picking up across emerging markets (EMs); stronger global demand is helping exporters while loose monetary policy and rising wages are supporting domestic activity. US President Donald Trump has softened his campaign trade stance, and US inflation is easing, reducing pressure for tighter policy that would have damaged growth prospects in export-reliant EMs and put dollar-indebted countries under pressure.

ECB to stay dovish despite ending its QE programme

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Financial Fragility ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
European Central ◽  
Asset Backed Securities

Significance Fears of Europe's financial fragility are rising after the ECB ended its quantitative easing (QE) programme in December. The programme -- which lasted almost four years -- bought over 2.5 trillion euros (2.9 trillion dollars) in government, corporate and covered bonds, as well as asset-backed securities. Impacts GDP growth may pick up in the fourth quarter after idiosyncratic factors hit July-September, but GDP will struggle to build momentum. When the next cyclical downturn hits, fiscal policy will have to help monetary policy in supporting the economy. An ECB rate hike in 2019 would allow Central-East European central banks to hike too, curbing inflationary pressures.

US policy uncertainty and stock returns: evidence in the US and its spillovers to the European Union, China and Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 621-657
Author(s):  
Thomas C. Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And Japan

Purpose Recent empirical studies by Antonakakis, Chatziantoniou and Filis (2013), Brogaard and Detzel (2015) and Christou et al. (2017) present evidence, which supports the notion that a rise in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) will lead to a decline in stock prices. The purpose of this paper is to examine US categorical policy uncertainty on stock returns while controlling for implied volatility and downside risk. In addition to the domestic impacts of policy uncertainty, this paper also presents evidence that changes in US policy uncertainty promptly propagates to the global stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a GED-GARCH (1, 1) model to estimate changes of uncertainties in US monetary, fiscal and trade policies on stock returns for the sample period of January 1990–December 2018. Robustness test is conducted by using different set of data and modeling techniques. Findings This paper contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, testing of US aggregate data while controlling for downside risk and implied volatility, consistently, shows that responses of stock prices to US policy uncertainty changes, not only display a negative effect in the current period but also have at least a one-month time-lag. The evidence supports the uncertainty premium hypothesis. Second, extending the test to global data reveals that US policy uncertainty changes have a negative impact on markets in Europe, China and Japan. Third, testing the data in sectoral stock markets mainly displays statistically significant results with a negative sign. Fourth, the evidence consistently shows that changes in policy uncertainty present an inverse relation to the stock returns, regardless of whether uncertainty is moving upward or downward. Research limitations/implications The current research is limited to the markets in the USA, eurozone, China and Japan. This study can be extended to additional countries, such as emerging markets. Practical implications This paper provides a model that uses categorical policy uncertainty approach to explain stock price changes. The parametric estimates provide insightful information in advising investors for making portfolio decision. Social implications The estimated coefficients of changes in monetary policy uncertainty, fiscal policy uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty are informative in assisting policymakers to formulate effective financial policies. Originality/value This study extends the existing risk premium model in several directions. First, it separates the financial risk factors from the EPU innovations; second, instead of using EPU, this study investigates the effects from monetary policy, fiscal policy and trade policy uncertainties; third, in additional to an examination of the effects of US categorical policy uncertainties on its own markets, this study also investigates the spillover effects to global major markets; fourth, besides the aggregate stock markets, this study estimates the effects of US policy uncertainty innovations on the sectoral stock returns.

Fiscal dangers loom over Taiwan

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Private Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment

Subject Taiwan's deteriorating fiscal situation. Significance Taiwan's GDP growth has been below 1% since early 2015 -- a marked slowdown since before the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when rates in excess of 5% were normal. Yet the centre-left government of President Tsai Ing-wen, which took office in May, is sticking to a conservative fiscal policy. Impacts Government debt will increase further, but is far from reaching crisis-prone levels. Taiwan's debt is internal, so it can be digested by either fiscal adjustment or monetary policy. Planned tax increases to cope with growing fiscal expenditure will discourage private consumption and investment. More private business owners will relocate their wealth overseas where taxes are lower.

US trade policy will target self-sufficiency

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Comment ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Government

Subject US trade policy. Significance US President Donald Trump announced on March 22 that within 15 days a list of more than 1,000 Chinese imports to be subject to 25% tariffs will be released for 30 days of public comment. This could herald wider protectionist policies: the rhetoric of Trump's team may suggest its goal is to establish 'fair' trade, letting markets determine pricing and observing copyrights and patents, but the move also represents a key step in the fundamental 15-year US policy shift towards autarky. Impacts Forecasters were slow to see that US shale advances 15 years ago would alter energy markets -- now manufacturing too could change markedly. The United States may extend its shale experience to other sectors to reduce its imports substantially. If the United States becomes less dependent on certain regions for key imports, the government will gain foreign policy flexibility.

Prospects for the global economy in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
Bounce Back

Subject Prospects for the global economy in 2020. Significance Global GDP growth in 2020 is likely to edge above this year’s 3%, provided that employment and wage gains remain firm and trade and investment continue to stabilise. Even if a US-China ‘phase one’ trade deal is agreed, world trade will not bounce back. Moreover, productivity is deteriorating in the United States and United Kingdom and is flat elsewhere, potentially exacerbating weak investment. Looser monetary policy will shore up rather than raise global growth and there is little sign of the larger economies markedly expanding fiscal policy.

Evolving talent management patterns and challenges in Russia and Kazakhstan

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 411-426
Author(s):  
Violetta Khoreva ◽  
Edyta Kostanek
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Multinational Enterprises ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Talent Management ◽  
Business Leaders ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Employer Perspective ◽  
Fierce Competition

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evolving patterns and challenges of talent management (TM) in the emerging markets of Russia and Kazakhstan from the employer perspective. Increasing the understanding of how TM is recognized from the employer perspective may better equip us to address how to effectively manage and lead the available talents in these and other emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors conducted a qualitative study comprising 50 semi-structured interviews, with 37 business leaders from Russian subsidiaries, and 13 from Kazakh subsidiaries, in all cases of Nordic Multinational enterprises (MNEs). Findings The study supports the object approach to TM in the emerging markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. The authors reveal that the exclusive and developable talent philosophy is predominant in these emerging markets, where TM faces the challenges of fierce competition for talents and an insufficient supply, so business leaders tend to be reluctant to inform employees of their talent pool membership. The results demonstrate that MNEs do not act independently of context, thus supporting calls for consideration of the local institutional context. Originality/value TM is still a somewhat novel idea in many emerging economies, and challenges related to managing talents are believed to be far more complex in such settings. Furthermore, to the best of authors’ knowledge, no studies have investigated the notion of talent and TM conceptualization in the emerging markets from an employer perspective.

Design leaps: business model adaptation in emerging economies

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Sharma ◽  
Mukund R. Dixit ◽  
Amit Karna
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Model Adaptation ◽  
Design Features ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Opportunities ◽  
Contextual Intelligence

Purpose Firms take design leaps when they imitate an established business model developed either by another firm or in another market to create business opportunities. While recent research has suggested the use of contextual intelligence for imitation, the exact process of adaptation of a business model is not fully understood. The purpose of this paper is to outline the process through which an emerging market firm adapts a developed market business model for creating business opportunities in the local market. Design/methodology/approach This paper investigates the journey of Air Deccan, the pioneer low-cost airline in India, from its founding until its successful adaptation of a (Western) business model and eventual failure. The authors use a qualitative case-based approach to study business model adaptation. Findings The authors find that adaptation involves the incorporation of following design features: novelty to overcome problem of institutional voids, elasticity to exploit unexpected increase in demand and efficiency to serve large volumes. Based on the evidence, the authors suggest the introduction of global efficiency measures as the boundary conditions of business model adaptation in emerging markets. Research limitations/implications The paper contributes to the literature on business models by suggesting elasticity as a unique design feature relevant for emerging markets. This paper provides granular understanding of business model toxicity. Practical implications Entrepreneurs and managers – looking to enter emerging markets through opportunity creation – should focus on providing contextually novel design features in the adapted business model. The authors also caution practitioners against the perils of toxicity arising out of combining contextual novelty with efficiency. Originality/value Recent literature suggests that multinationals need contextual intelligence to successfully monetize their investment in emerging economies. This paper provides rich description of the challenges faced by entrepreneurs in emerging markets, local innovations used to overcome them and boundary conditions.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

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