South Korea’s economy will suffer less than most

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

Significance The impact exceeds that of the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when GDP grew 0.8% in 2009. Much hinges on how fast massive stimulus measures kick in at home, and how major export markets fare. Impacts The service sector, hitherto a weaker driver of GDP growth than exports, will get a relative boost. Political conflicts will intensify as to whether unprecedented government spending is appropriately targeted, or fiscally sustainable. Moon’s government will use COVID-19 as cover for measures it was committed to in any case, and as an excuse if performance falls short.

Bank mergers and acquisitions in Greece: the financial crisis and its effect on shareholder wealth

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 273-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Tampakoudis ◽  
Michail Nerantzidis ◽  
Demetres Subeniotis ◽  
Apostolos Soutsas ◽  
Nikolaos Kiosses
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Shareholder Wealth ◽  
Conclusive Evidence ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Bank Mergers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the wealth implications of bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the unique Greek setting given the triple crisis phenomenon – banking, sovereign debt and economic crises – that prevailed after the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach The study examines bank M&As and bank transactions over the period from 1997 to 2018, as well as government-assisted M&As during the crisis. The wealth effects of bank M&As are assessed using both univariate and multivariate frameworks. Findings Findings show a neutral crisis effect on the valuation of M&As upon their announcement. However, the authors provide conclusive evidence that M&A completions are value-destroying events for acquiring banks during the crisis, far worse than in the pre-crisis period. Greek banks also fail to create value from government-assisted mergers. The results suggest that the financial stability and the prevention of further deepening of the Greek crisis with possible contagion effects were achieved at the expense of shareholders and taxpayers. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of the Greek triple crisis on the wealth effects of bank M&As and bank transactions. Also, the study provides first evidence with regard to the economic impact of government-assisted M&As in the European context.

Does macroeconomic uncertainty really matter in predicting stock market behavior? A comparative study on China and USA

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghulam Abbas ◽  
Shouyang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Macroeconomic Risk ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe study aims to analyze the interaction between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market return and volatility for China and USA and tries to draw some invaluable inferences for the investors, portfolio managers and policy analysts.Design/methodology/approachEmpirically the study uses GARCH family models to capture the time-varying volatility of stock market and macroeconomic risk factors by using monthly data ranging from 1995:M7 to 2018:M6. Then, these volatility series are further used in the multivariate VAR model to analyze the feedback interaction between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors for China and USA. The study also incorporates the impact of Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 by using dummy variables in the GARCH model analysis.FindingsThe empirical results of GARCH models indicate volatility persistence in the stock markets and the macroeconomic variables of both countries. The study finds relatively weak and inconsistent unidirectional causality for China mainly running from the stock market to the macroeconomic variables; however, the volatility spillover transmission reciprocates when the impact of Asian financial crisis and Global financial crisis is incorporated. For USA, the contemporaneous relationship between stock market and macroeconomic risk factors is quite strong and bidirectional both at first and second moment level.Originality/valueThis study investigates the interaction between stock market and macroeconomic uncertainty for China and USA. The researchers believe that none of the prior studies has made such rigorous comparison of two of the big and diverse economies (China and USA) which are quite contrasting in terms of political, economic and social background. Therefore, this study also tries to test the presumed conception that macroeconomic uncertainty in China may have different impact on the stock market return and volatility than in USA.

scholarly journals The Basel accords, capital reserves, and agricultural lending

2019 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gary W. Brester ◽  
Myles J. Watts
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Capital Reserves

Purpose The safety and soundness of financial institutions has become a leading worldwide issue because of the recent global financial crisis. Historically, financial crises have occurred approximately every 20 years. The worst financial crisis in the last 75 years occurred in 2008–2009. US regulatory efforts with respect to capital reserve requirements are likely to have several unintended consequences for the agricultural lending sector—especially for smaller, less-diversified (and often, rural agricultural) lenders. The paper discusses these issues. Design/methodology/approach Simulation models and value-at-risk (VaR) criteria are used to evaluate the impact of capital reserve requirements on lending return on equity. In addition, simulations are used to calculate the effects of loan numbers and portfolio diversification on capital reserve requirements. Findings This paper illustrates that increasing capital reserve requirements reduces lending return on equity. Furthermore, increases in the number of loans and portfolio diversification reduce capital reserve requirements. Research limitations/implications The simulation methods are a simplification of complex lending practices and VaR calculations. Lenders use these and other procedures for managing capital reserves than those modeled in this paper. Practical implications Smaller lending institutions will be pressured to increase loan sector diversification. In addition, traditional agricultural lenders will likely be under increased pressure to diversify portfolios. Because agricultural loan losses have relatively low correlations with other sectors, traditional agricultural lenders can expect increased competition for agricultural loans from non-traditional agricultural lenders. Originality/value This paper is novel in that the authors illustrate how lender capital requirements change in response to loan payment correlations both within and across lending sectors.

Market efficiency and the global financial crisis: evidence from developed markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 362-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Sabbaghi ◽  
Navid Sabbaghi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Investigations

Purpose This study aims to provide one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) country indices as proxies for national stock markets, the study conducts a battery of econometric tests in assessing weak-form market efficiency for the developed markets. Findings The inferential outcomes are consistent among the different tests. Specifically, the study finds that the majority of developed markets are weak-form efficient while the USA is the sole equity market to be commonly diagnosed as weak-form inefficient across the different tests when using full period data spanning the January 2008-November 2011 period. However, when basing the analysis on one-year subsamples over the identical time period, this study fails to reject weak-form market efficiency for all of the developed markets and presents evidence consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis as described by Urquhart and Hudson (2013). When applying technical analysis for the case of the USA over the full study period, the results indicate that the return predictabilities can be exploited for some horizon of variable length moving average (VMA) trading rules. Originality/value This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of market efficiency for developed markets during the recent global financial crisis using an extended set of econometric tests. The study contributes to the existing body of empirical research that formally assesses the impact of a financial crisis on stock market efficiency and underlines the significance and relevance of examining market efficiency through subsample analysis.

scholarly journals Antecedents of voluntary corporate governance disclosure: a post-2007/08 financial crisis evidence from the influential UK Combined Code

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed H. Elmagrhi ◽  
Collins G. Ntim ◽  
Yan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Outside Directors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the level of compliance with, and disclosure of, good corporate governance (CG) practices among UK publicly listed firms and consequently ascertain whether board characteristics and ownership structure variables can explain observable differences in the extent of voluntary CG compliance and disclosure practices. Design/methodology/approach This study uses one of the largest data sets to-date on compliance and disclosure of CG practices from 2008 to 2013 containing 120 CG provisions drawn from the 2010 UK Combined Code relating to 100 UK listed firms to conduct multiple regression analyses of the determinants of voluntary CG disclosures. A number of additional estimations, including two stage least squares, fixed-effects and lagged structures, are conducted to address the potential endogeneity issue and test the robustness of the findings. Findings The results suggest that there is a substantial variation in the levels of compliance with, and disclosure of, good CG practices among the sampled UK firms. The authors also find that firms with larger board size, more independent outside directors and greater director diversity tend to disclose more CG information voluntarily, whereas the level of voluntary CG compliance and disclosure is insignificantly related to the existence of a separate CG committee and institutional ownership. Additionally, the results indicate that block ownership and managerial ownership negatively affect voluntary CG compliance and disclosure practices. The findings are fairly robust across a number of econometric models that sufficiently address various endogeneity problems and alternative CG indices. Overall, the findings are generally consistent with the predictions of neo-institutional theory. Originality/value This study extends, as well as contributes to, the extant CG literature by offering new evidence on compliance with, and disclosure of, good CG recommendations contained in the 2010 UK Combined Code following the 2007/2008 global financial crisis. This study also advances the existing literature by offering new insights from a neo-institutional theoretical perspective of the impact of board and ownership mechanisms on voluntary CG compliance and disclosure practices.

scholarly journals Alternative measures for predicting financial distress in the case of Malaysian Islamic banks: assessing the impact of global financial crisis

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1827-1845
Author(s):  
Mehmet Asutay ◽  
Jaizah Othman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Alternative Funding ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 still has an impact on the financial systems around the world, for which funding liquidity has been mentioned as one of the main concerns during that period. This study aims to consider the impact of and extent to which the funding structure of Islamic banks along with deposit structure, macroeconomic variables, other bank-specific variables, including alternative funding mix variables (in terms of funding structure measured as financing/deposit ratio), could play a part in explaining the financial conditions and predicting the failures and performances of Islamic banks in the case of Malaysia under the distress created by the global financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach Multivariate logit model was used with a sample including 17 full-fledged Islamic banks in Malaysia for the period from December 2005 to September 2010 by using quarterly data. Findings This study found that the funding mix variable (financing/deposit ratio), the composition of deposits, alternative bank-specific variables and alternative funding mix variables are statistically significant. In contrast, none of the macroeconomic variables is found to have a significant impact on bank liquidity. In the final models, the variables that showed significant performance were selected as explanatory variables. The results of McFadden R-squared for both selected models showed an excellent fit to predict the Islamic banks’ performance. Originality/value This empirical study contributes to the literature in two ways: to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the role of the funding structures of Islamic banks in determining their performance; and it also examines the effect of deposit composition (the mudharabah and non-mudharabah deposits) on Islamic banks’ performance.

Determinants of the global financial crisis recovery: an empirical assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Crisis Recovery ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the effect of the factors contributing to the recovery from this crisis in terms of national GDP growth among the G7, Asian7, and Latin American7 countries. Design/methodology/approach The author uses a multivariate regression analysis of the determinants of the global financial crisis recovery. Findings Based on data from 21 developed and developing emerging market economies the author found that good macroeconomic fundamentals together with more open financial policy, financial liberalization, financial depth, domestic performance, and favored global conditions do linearly influence national GDP growth. Over 85 percent of cross-country variations in GDP growth during the recovery phase of the global financial crisis can be explained by its linear dependency on pre-crisis national GDP growth, financial liberalization, financial depth, domestic performance, as well as interaction terms between various explanatory variables. Cross-country differences in national GDP growth also linearly depend on macroprudence and on favorable global conditions. Originality/value Results of such empirical examination may enable governments in developing countries devise resilience strategies that may serve as powerful tools for dealing with future global financial crises.

The effects of the global financial crisis on the capital structure of EPRA/NAREIT Europe index companies

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giacomo Morri ◽  
Andrea Artegiani
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Pecking Order ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Capital Structure

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether the financial crisis has affected the capital structure of real estate companies in Europe and whether these impacts can be studied utilizing the variables traditionally used by the trade-off and pecking-order theories to explain the capital structure of companies. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a fixed-effect panel regression analysis and a sample composed of companies included in the EPRA/NAREIT Europe Index. The effect of the financial crisis has been accounted for within the model by means of a dummy variable. Findings – The global financial crisis did have an impact on the capital structure of companies and the main variables traditionally used by the trade-off and pecking order theories proved to be suitable in explaining the capital structure of real estate companies. Real estate investment trusts are, on average, more leveraged than traditional real estate companies due to their special regulatory status. Research limitations/implications – The study is limited to the European market and UK companies in particular account for a large part of the sample. In addition, major regulatory differences between the various European countries are not taken into account in the model. Originality/value – Similar studies have been performed for the US and Australian market. However, the impact of the global financial crisis has not been traditionally considered in these studies.

The impact of the global financial crisis on audit and non-audit fees

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (4/5) ◽  
pp. 302-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Alexeyeva ◽  
Tobias Svanström
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Audit Fees ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Public Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Non Audit Services

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate audit and non-audit fees during the global financial crisis (GFC) in an environment that is relatively sparsely regulated with regard to the provision of non-audit services. Design/methodology/approach – Audit and non-audit fees were studied during pre-GFC (2006-2007), GFC (2008-2009) and post-GFC (2010-2011) periods. Findings – During the GFC, Swedish companies benefited from an increase in sales and total assets, although return on assets decreased. In this setting, the auditors charged higher audit fees compared with the pre-GFC period, despite the absence of increased audit reporting lags. A significant increase in audit fees continued during the post-crisis periods with auditors paying more attention to companies’ leverage and whether they report losses. At the same time, the companies spent less on non-audit services. Research limitations/implications – This study is limited to companies from Sweden, which was less affected by the GFC. Practical implications – GFC auditors are able to charge higher audit fees to public companies including those that are well-performing during financial crises, and they are also able to increase the audit fees in the post-crisis period. This implies that auditors put in extra audit effort to compensate for higher risk, or that they are good at negotiating prices with their clients. However, non-audit fees decreased during the same period, implying that the demand for these services drops under financial instability. Originality/value – The study highlights auditors’ behavior in the liberal economic environment and it studies both audit fees and non-audit fees before GFC, during GFC and after the GFC. The GFC appears to have provided audit firms the opportunity to extract higher audit fees. Our findings are of interest to managers, auditors and regulators.

Effect of the global financial crisis on the financial performance of public listed construction companies in Malaysia

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 246-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Ying Lai ◽  
Abdul Rashid Abdul Aziz ◽  
Toong Khuan Chan
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The aim of this case study is to characterize the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the financial performance of public listed construction companies. Design/methodology/approach – Financial analysis was conducted on 32 public listed construction companies in Malaysia. Twelve financial ratios were examined to determine the profitability, liquidity, activity, leverage and solvency of these companies over the period between 2005 and 2010. This was complemented by a distress analysis using Altman’s Z-index. The study also used a content analysis of the Chairman’s or Managing Director’s statement to shareholders to uncover the responses and strategic initiatives undertaken by the management in response to the financial crisis. Findings – The only direct impact of the financial crisis was a reduction in profitability. Total revenues and total assets of these companies continue to grow due to increased demand for construction from year 2007 following two large capital investment programs initiated by the Malaysian Government to mitigate the potential effects of the financial crisis. Net profits rebounded back to 5 per cent by year 2010. These companies immediately responded to the crisis with more prudent financial management; curtailing expenses, cutting dividends, reducing bank borrowings, increasing equity; and to the extent of disposing of assets to mitigate losses. Research limitations/implications – The sample of only 32 public listed companies out of a total of more than 60,000 construction companies may be considered small, but these 32 companies represent nearly 20 per cent of the total construction volume for 2010. Practical implications – The study documents the effects of increased capital spending by the government to mitigate the loss of investor confidence followed by a slowdown in economic growth during a period of global financial distress. Key findings will inform on prudent financial management to withstand future financial crises. Originality/value – The responses and strategies adopted by the management to mitigate the effects and to enhance future performance of these companies have been uncovered. These are important considerations in managing construction companies; the analysis and observations will be invaluable to researchers intending to study how the construction industry responds to a future slump in demand.

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