Intra-communal divisions will plague post-IS Iraq

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Political Consensus

Significance However, the successful fight against IS has not forged a new sense of unity among Iraq’s communities; instead, it has solidified some divides and created conditions for future conflict. Impacts Low-level conflict and instability will persist after IS, undermining the business environment. If no political consensus can be reached after the upcoming polls, Iraq's long-term future as a unified country becomes more problematic. Outside Kurdish-controlled areas, the bulk of oil production is in the south; the main risk to output is therefore intra-Shia conflict. A possible Kurdish bid for independence could destabilise Iraq as a whole.

Saudi ejection of Yemeni workers may have dire results

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Mutual Trust ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Border ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Initial Focus

Significance The initial focus was on professionals employed in the south-western border governorates; however, there are growing reports of an impact across the country, also including unskilled workers. This comes as the Saudi-led coalition continues its intervention in the Yemen conflict that began in 2015. The Riyadh-based government-in-exile has protested. Impacts Anti-Saudi sentiments will strengthen among Yemenis of all political affiliations. Mutual trust between Riyadh and the internationally recognised government of Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansur al-Hadi will decline further. In south-western Saudi Arabia, fear and anger between people of Yemeni origin and nationals will rise, undercutting long-term cultural ties.

To downsize or not to downsize: when and how does corporate downsizing create long-term value?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mishari Alnahedh ◽  
Abdullatif Alrashdan
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Value Appropriation ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Moderation Effect ◽  
Corporate Downsizing

Purpose How does corporate downsizing contribute to a firm’s long-term value? While the extant empirical findings on this relationship are inconclusive, contradictory and equivocal, the answers to this question remain particularly important in today’s business environment. Considering that downsizing is often directed toward long-term growth and survival, this paper aims to posit that scholars should account for the temporal nature of this strategic decision to understand its economic impact on the firm’s operations. Therefore, this paper provides a more rigorous empirical examination of how a firm’s decision to downsize its workforce affects that firm’s long-term value. Design/methodology/approach This paper used Wibbens and Siggelkow’s (2020) measure of long-term investor value appropriation (LIVA) to directly observe the effects of corporate downsizing on firm long-term value and growth. Using a sample of 3,149 US publicly traded manufacturing firms that operated between 2002 to 2018, this paper tested the main effect of downsizing on LIVA and 3 boundary condition hypotheses. Findings This paper found a positive relationship between corporate downsizing and a firm’s long-term value. Interestingly, this positive relationship is stronger among firms that had high human resource slack and R&D intensity. Contrary to the expectations, this paper did not find support for the moderation effect of the proximity to bankruptcy on the relationship between corporate downsizing and a firm’s long-term value. Originality/value With these findings, the paper sheds light on the long-term implications of a firm’s decision to downsize its workforce.

Greek-French defence deal will widen Turkish rifts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Defence Procurement

Significance A win-win deal for both, it strengthens their long-standing excellent relations. It also enhances Greece’s military position in the Aegean Sea and France’s presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. However, following a peaceful summer in the Aegean, the pact risks raising tensions between Greece (and Cyprus) and Turkey over maritime borders and drilling rights. Impacts US-Greek defence agreement will be updated to cover a long-term arrangement, allowing for more investment in US bases in Greece. Turkish defence procurement from Russia is likely to rise, straining ties with Washington. Low-level exploratory talks between Greece and Turkey will continue as scheduled amid mutual recriminations.

Financing shortfall will push Oman to uneasy austerity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Project Financing ◽  
Wage Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Year ◽  
Gas Fields

Significance A fiscal crunch exacerbated by the pandemic and associated oil-price crash has forced the authorities to step up long-term ‘Omanisation’ efforts, ultimately taking pressure off the bloated public sector wage bill. This comes as Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, one year into his reign, launches a raft of new political, military and economic initiatives. Impacts Oman will remain compliant with OPEC+ oil production cuts. The sultanate will boost output at its competitive giant Ghazeer and Khazzan gas fields in Block 61 to benefit from high prices. Muscat will prioritise agriculture, fisheries and logistics for non-oil growth but struggle to secure project financing post-pandemic.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

Petroleum investors could cut their losses in Yemen

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Solar Panels ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Subject Yemeni oil production. Significance The oil and gas sector -- which was in any case in long-term decline, owing to a lack of investment -- suffered serious disruption after civil war broke out in March 2015, with oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refining facilities closed, and ports blockaded to prevent delivery of oil products. The internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi has renewed efforts to encourage a recovery in oil production since late 2016, but these are hampered by the civil war and lawlessness in remote areas. Impacts Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be the main sources of oil imports, probably on concessional terms. Hydrocarbon exports will not provide sufficient finance for post-conflict reconstruction. Exports of LNG are unlikely to restart before 2020 at the earliest. A crisis of power provision will expand the market for small solar panels.

Kazakh business climate improves but needs reform

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Catching Up ◽  
Political Succession

Subject The business climate in Kazakhstan. Significance Kazakhstan is improving its score as a business environment but much remains to be done. Corporate regulation has improved and anti-corruption efforts have been undertaken, albeit with uneven effect. Major privatisations often do not happen or end up redistributing assets within Kazakhstan. A recent restructuring of ministerial responsibilities seems likely to complicate rather than simplify the task of attracting foreign investment. Impacts Aside from structural issues, unanswered but increasingly urgent questions of political succession will weigh on investor interest. The low level of economic diversification limits the pool of investor opportunities. Kazakhstan will continue to be the main regional magnet for FDI but Uzbekistan may start catching up.

Corporate culture and long-term survival of Spanish innovative firms

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Ramón Tejeiro Koller ◽  
Patricio Morcillo Ortega ◽  
José Miguel Rodríguez Antón ◽  
Luís Rubio Andrada
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Culture ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Innovation Culture ◽  
Innovative Firms ◽  
Innovative Capabilities

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze how firms can enhance their innovative capabilities and become more resilient. The current business environment requires a specific type of management for companies to remain competitive and innovation plays a key role in this respect. However, this means that a particular kind of corporate culture must promote innovation in the firm. This innovation culture is likely to be present in innovative companies that have survived in the long term (at least 50 years) and be the source of an adaptive advantage. Design/methodology/approach Using innovative Spanish firms, which were established at least 50 years ago, an exploratory factorial analysis was conducted to verify the existence of an innovation culture. Thereafter, a cluster analysis was undertaken to study differences in performance to be able to detect and identify their adaptive advantage. Findings The findings offer a detailed profile of old and innovative firms created in Spain. Results show that most of the studied firms (88 per cent) have an innovation culture. Furthermore, two separate groups were identified, in which one showed higher profitability and a lower adjustment to an innovation culture, while the other showed the reverse results. This suggests that innovation culture helps companies be more resilient but does not necessarily lead to higher returns. Practical implications Corporate culture is identified as a useful management tool in the search for more resilient enterprises. Specific cultural traits are recommended and a benchmarking tool is applied and made available upon request. Originality/value Although there are a number of studies which consider the concept of adaptive advantage and resilience on the one side, and on corporate innovation culture on the other, this paper seems to be the first to empirically explore the relationship of both these concepts.

scholarly journals Islands as refuges for surviving global catastrophes

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey Turchin ◽  
Brian Patrick Green
Keyword(s):  
Data Storage ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Easter Island ◽  
Nuclear Submarine ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Term Data

Purpose Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes. Design/methodology/approach Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature. Findings The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed. Originality/value The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.

Algeria's Ghardaia violence may rise in the long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City ◽  
At Home

Subject The potential for violence in Ghardaia Significance Violent clashes took place on July 8 in the oasis city of Ghardaia in the south of Algeria, between the region's two major communities, the Arabs and the Berbers. Clashes between the two groups have occurred sporadically since the 1970s. However, the most recent ones were the most violent so far: 23 people died and dozens were injured. The government deployed 8,000 troops in the city, but the escalating violence has raised concerns about the government's ability to resolve the conflict. Impacts More violence in Ghardaia would damage the government's reputation, undermining its ability to solve domestic crises. This would lead to a further loss of credibility at home and abroad. It could also cause concerns among oil investors, at a time when Algiers is looking to increase its hydrocarbons production.

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