Philippines tax reforms could see Senate snags

Subject Tax reform update in the Philippines. Significance The next congressional session opens on July 24, in which the Senate will address its version of the first reform bill in the Duterte administration’s Comprehensive Tax Reform Package (CTRP). This follows the House of Representatives passing its version -- the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Act (TRAIN) -- on May 31. Impacts As it would prove the government’s reform commitment, the CTRP’s passage would likely see Philippine credit rating upgrades. Lowering taxes could bring some business and investment competitiveness benefits, but this is not guaranteed. The tax reforms’ success will be moderated by inefficient tax collection and disbursement, and corruption and evasion.

Subject Philippine tax reforms. Significance The second Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN 2) law, which is focused on lowering corporate income tax and reducing tax incentives, faces growing pushback from beneficiaries of current tax incentives. The Department of Finance introduced the bill in January and wants the bill passed by the end of 2018. Impacts Failure to pass the corporate income tax bill could bring a downgrade in the Philippines’ credit-rating outlook, following a recent upgrade. Sustained high inflation could be a key factor in the 2019 midterm Congressional elections. The Duterte administration will increasingly argue that tax reform is a necessary complement to its ambitious infrastructure programme.


Significance He appears to have weathered this early political storm, achieving notable successes in areas such as tax reform. However, the political outlook remains uncertain, with a likely COVID-19 resurgence heralding new challenges in 2022. Impacts Containing the spread of the Omicron variant will be a priority for Lasso in the coming months. A pandemic resurgence would place downward pressure on economic growth and tax collection. Tax reforms will please international investors and support efforts to attract foreign direct investment to stimulate economic activity.


Significance On July 15, the House of Representatives passed a short-term funding measure, against the wishes of many in the Senate. US infrastructure is facing a fiscal crunch. Taxes on gasoline have traditionally supported highway appropriations. However, eroding purchasing power and greater fuel efficiency means that about 30% of highway funding must be found from other sources, difficult in the current Congress. The present round of appropriations expires on July 31. Impacts A corporate tax might provide a long-term resolution, but the pursuit of it would come at the cost of seeking more modest solutions. These would provide stability for a year or two, necessary for projects of long duration. If corporate tax reform is not completed before the end of 2015, it will probably not get done in a presidential election year. If Congress were to rely on the prospect of these taxes for the HTF, it might find itself in a similar position in a few months.


Significance Hungary thereby regains investment-grade status, albeit at the lowest level, from being downgraded to 'junk' because of doubts about the government's policies and the high public debt burden. Hungary's improving creditworthiness, underpinned by its current account surplus and deleveraging in the banking sector, contrasts with the increasing strain on Poland's credit rating. Political risk has become a major driver of investor sentiment towards emerging markets. Impacts Emerging market assets have become more vulnerable as investors reprice US monetary policy. Futures markets are now assigning a 51% probability to another rise in US interest rates at or before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Central Europe's government bond markets are being supported by the persistently dovish monetary policy stance of its central banks. This contrasts with Latin America, where inflationary pressures are forcing many central banks to raise rates. Brazil, Turkey, Poland and the Philippines are among several countries where political uncertainty is a key determinant of asset prices.


Significance This is the second cabinet change in as many months by President Martin Vizcarra’s administration. Tuesta’s removal represents a shift in the power balance between the prime minister’s office and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), traditionally regarded as the guardian of public finances. It reflects the determination of the new administration to avoid unpopular fiscal policies whose main impact would fall on less affluent taxpayers. Impacts The direction of policy will not change radically under Oliva. A probable rise in mining revenues will likely defer unpopular attempts at broader tax reform. Efforts to reduce tax evasion will produce disappointing results.


Subject Philippines political outlook and electoral update. Significance The House of Representatives on April 7 re-convened its Mamasapano massacre hearings. The massacre's fallout is fusing the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), 2016 presidential and legislative elections and President Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino's legacy in a damaging manner for Aquino, his Liberal Party, Muslim Mindanao and the Philippines. The Bangsamoro peace deal was to have been Aquino's triumph, bolstering his high popularity and aiding his chosen heir in 2016 against United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) leader and current vice-president, Jejomar Binay. The opposite is unfolding. Impacts Aquino will seek political rehabilitation, perhaps using 2016's budget; modest results are probable. Frictions between the legislature and executive may grow, further constraining legislation and Aquino's reforms. With no current front-runner, the Liberal-led coalition will seek presidential candidates, potentially exacerbating internal frictions.


Subject Tax reform efforts in the Philippines. Significance Taxation reform is an aim of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration, but the first batch of measures that the finance department has submitted to congress have caused controversy: one representative on October 8, adding to others' criticisms, said that a mulled increase in vehicle taxes and prices would hit low- and middle-income households disproportionately. Impacts Tax cuts will be popular, but Duterte could lose support from those facing higher taxes. An increased tax take would support government infrastructure development goals. Lowering personal income taxes would see top-up taxes elsewhere, such as on petroleum products, increasing business costs. New taxes on alcohol, tobacco and other 'sin' items, sugary products, luxury items and the auto sector could be coming. Tax avoidance and evasion will not end quickly; sustained regulatory attention will be needed.


Subject Prospects for US corporate tax reform Significance The US administration is growing increasingly anxious for legislative successes, focusing attention on whether Congressional Republicans can deliver on their promise of corporate tax reform. Sustained business confidence and buoyant stock markets suggest businesses remain hopeful, but as Congress gets to work on reforming the tax code, intra-party rifts will increasingly reveal themselves. Impacts Senate debate on healthcare reform saw many controversies arise; a similar course looks unavoidable for corporate tax reform. Stock markets might celebrate a simple and temporary tax cut, but bond investors would flee from the prospect of a wider budget deficit. Other countries would likely react with their own cuts; widespread low rates mean that tax already has less influence on a firm’s location. Losing control of the House of Representatives in the November 2018 mid-term elections would make reform trickier for the Republicans.


Significance With Congress in the legislative endgame over President Joe Biden's proposed USD4tn spending on infrastructure, education, research and clean energy, changes to the US tax code to pay for it are back in Washington's spotlight. Impacts If adopted, Biden's ambitious tax plan would reshape US tax law for the second time in four years. Polls showing support for delaying the USD3.5tn of infrastructure and social spending raise the chance of Congress limiting tax reform. Funding for IRS tax collection enforcement, hit by years of budget cuts accelerated during the Trump administration, will increase.


Subject The Philippines' economic liberalisation. Significance During his third State of the Nation Address (SONA) late last month, President Rodrigo Duterte reaffirmed his wish for the highly protected rice market to be liberalised and for a third major player to enter the telecoms market. For the rice market, bills to shift from the current quota system to a tariff-based one are at various stages in the House of Representatives and Senate. For the third telecoms player, the terms of reference for market entry await finalisation. Impacts The Philippines faces a growing threat of WTO action from Australia, Thailand and Vietnam against its rice quota system. The government will seek to narrow the definition of a public utility, which must be majority locally owned, to exclude telecoms. Continued high inflation could affect the 2019 midterm elections.


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