Rice quality and its impacts on food security and sustainability in Bangladesh

Rice market efficiency is important for food security in countries where rice is a staple. We assess the impact of rice quality on rice prices, food security, and environmental sustainability in Bangladesh. We find that while price varies as expected for most quality attributes, it is unaffected by a broken percentage below 24.9 percent. This reveals a potential inefficiency, considering the average 5 percent broken rate observed in the market. An increase in the broken rate of milled rice within the limits supported by our findings can, ceteris paribus, increase rice rations by 4.66 million a year, or conversely, yield the current number of rice rations using 170.79 thousand fewer hectares and cutting emissions by 1.48 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent. Thus, producing rice based on quality assessment can improve food security and its sustainability.

Prospects and strategies for food exports from border areas: a case of West Kalimantan Province, Indonesia

Border areas can be a source of growth in food production in Indonesia. One of the provinces in the border areas having prospects as a source of food growth for export is West Kalimantan. This province has started to export food (mainly medium and special quality rice) to Malaysia via Sanggau district. However, food exports from the Kalimantan border are still in limited quantities and face several obstacles that have resulted in unsustainable food exports. This study aims to analyze the prospects and strategies for food exports (especially rice) from West Kalimantan border area. The study was conducted in September 2018 in three subdistricts of Sanggau District, namely Entikong, Sekayam, and Kembayan. Data were collected through focus group discussion, and SWOT analysis was employed. The results show that rice exports from the West Kalimantan border areas are in the Weakness-Opportunity (W-O) quadrant, indicating an opportunity to export but cannot yet be utilized because the existing strength is not enough to carry it out. The main opportunity is that the rice market actors are ready to export, while the main weakness is that the rice prices are not competitive with those from other exporting countries. The decision that can be taken is either (1) releasing existing opportunity and looking for other alternatives or (2) forcing them to work on this opportunity.

Three essays on food security, agricultural productivity, and commodity basis

The proposed research is constructed around the theme of food security, agricultural productivity, and commodity basis. The first paper analyzes the impacts of COVID-19 on the Bangladesh rice market within the framework of a partial equilibrium regime-switching model. We provide an initial estimate of the short- and long-run effects of COVID-19 on the Bangladesh rice market and food security sustainability by comparing baseline projections. We analyze the effect of shocks in policies related to trade, public stock, and productivity on rice supply, demand, and food security dimensions. Finally, we assess the effectiveness of these policies to smooth out shocks that may arise from a future pandemic like COVID-19. In the second essay, we analyze the relationship between women's empowerment in agriculture and Bangladesh rice farm productivity change and its components, which include efficiency change, technological change, and scale efficiency change. We employ the non-parametric Malmquist approach and bootstrap regression method. We find that improvements in women's empowerment in agriculture, specifically enhancing their ability to make independent choices regarding agricultural production, have a statistically significant positive association with productivity change, efficiency change, and technical change. We also find that lowering the gender parity gap is positively related to improving the productivity of the sample farms. In the third essay, we analyze the effect of precipitation variations, namely local, growing season, and regional precipitation, on Missouri corn and soybean basis. We document statistically significant linear and nonlinear basis responses in corn and soybean models for local and growing season precipitation variations. We also find a statistically significant moderating effect of port distance measure on the curvilinearity of the association between regional precipitation and soybean basis. Keywords: food security; policy analysis; women's empowerment; Malmquist; imate change; precipitation

An Econometric Model for Nigeria’s Rice Market

A dynamic econometric model of Nigeria’s rice market was designed to serve as a base for future policy analyses. Using time-series data spanning 38 years, the model contains four structural equations representing paddy area harvested, paddy yield, per capita demand, and producer price variables. Estimates for these equations were obtained using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach. Results of the paddy production and yield sub-models showed that paddy area harvested, and paddy yield was price inelastic. Furthermore, the paddy area harvested responded favourably to technological advancement. For the demand sub-model, estimated own price and cross-price elasticities showed that rice has an inelastic demand response, with wheat being a substitute. A series of validation tests strengthened the reliability of the model for use as an empirical framework for forecasting and analysing the effects of changes in policies such as rice import tariff reforms on production, consumption, retail price, and imports.

COVID-19 and Policy Impacts on the Bangladeshi Rice Market and Food Security

This research employs a partial equilibrium model to estimate the short- and long-run effects of COVID-19 and rice policies on Bangladesh’s rice market and food security. We also analyze the impact of relevant policies in terms of their effectiveness in mitigating stresses stemming from a hypothetical pandemic with a COVID-19-like impact. The results indicate that the effect of COVID-19 on Bangladeshi food security during FY 2019/20 was mixed, as the indicators of food availability improved by 5%, and decreased by 17% for food stability, relative to what they would have been otherwise. Policy simulation results indicate that a higher import tariff improves self-sufficiency status, but undermines rice availability and accessibility by bending the market toward a restrictive trade regime. Results also indicate that unlike stock enhancement policy, closing the existing yield gap improves rice availability, accessibility, and moderates the depressing effect of a future event with repercussions similar to COVID-19, although the yield policy appears more speculative and could be too costly. The insights generated contribute to the understanding of policies that aim to achieve sustainable development goals related to aggregate food security, and build resilience against future shocks akin to COVID-19.