Election risks will weigh on Kenyan economy

Significance With all eyes on the political and security implications of the Supreme Court’s landmark annulment of the August 8 polls, elevated political risk is also impacting the economy, which could now see subdued conditions extend well into 2018. Given President Uhuru Kenyatta’s apparently comfortable victory and widespread approval by international observers, investors were stunned by the Supreme Court ruling, and are now likely to be cautious about fully re-entering local capital markets until the political clouds lift. Impacts Public investments under Odinga would likely focus on lower-profile but critical sectors such as agriculture and health. The government’s 1.5-billion-dollar precautionary IMF facility will buttress the currency if offshore investors accelerate their retreat. Kenya’s rankings on international governance indices could improve, increasing its appeal as a regional investment gateway.

Subject Amnesty law implications. Significance On July 13, the Supreme Court declared unconstitutional a civil-war amnesty law, which has been in force since 1993. This has led to fears of investigations against current politicians, and warnings that political stability could be undermined. Impacts The fall-out from the Supreme Court ruling will place a renewed focus on the independence of El Salvador's judiciary. The fact that both main parties are involved may discourage politicians from engaging in tit-for-tat allegations. There will be considerable military pressure on ARENA to oppose reopening civil-war cases.


Significance The first condition is to move the location of the talks from Geneva to Ghat. The second is that the other attendees recognise the Supreme Court ruling of November 2014, which held that the process that led to the election in June 2014 of the Tobruk-based parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR), was unconstitutional. Initial talks took place on January 14-16 and dialogue is due to restart this week. Both main factions, the Dignity-backed HoR and the Dawn-supported GNC, have called for ceasefires, but not all factions within those blocs have accepted them. Still, this is the first time ceasefires have been called since fighting between the two main competing blocs escalated following the Supreme Court ruling. Impacts Despite the talks, regional states will still be inclined to provide direct support for a proxy that serves their geopolitical interests. Fighting for control of oil installations will severely restrict the flow of revenues. This could prompt the factions to apply more pressure on the National Oil Corporation and the Central Bank. If dialogue fails it will intensify the humanitarian consequences of the conflict.


Subject A Supreme Court ruling permitting recreational marijuana use has reignited Mexico's drug-legalisation debate. Significance The Supreme Court on November 4 issued a ruling in favour of four individuals who submitted a judicial appeal after the national health authority -- the Federal Commission for Protection Against Sanitary Risks (COFEPRIS) -- rejected their request to consume, grow, own and transport cannabis for personal, recreational use. The ruling applies exclusively to the petitioners. President Enrique Pena Nieto's spokesman, Eduardo Sanchez, immediately clarified that it does not legalise marijuana, and that general production, commercialisation and supply remain banned, including for the four claimants. Impacts Although comparable appeals will undoubtedly flow to the Supreme Court, identical outcomes are not guaranteed. The ruling will re-ignite discussions on drug policies, despite the government's reluctance to introduce any major changes. Pena Nieto may struggle to reconcile his domestic and international stances on drugs as the 2016 UNGASS approaches.


Significance The Democrats are seeking to revive their party’s fortunes in legislative and electoral battles from the nadir following the political upsets of 2016. As the party seeks to orientate itself towards the administration of President Donald Trump at the federal level, its congressional leaders must balance the centrist considerations of legislative strategy under Republican rule with the expectations of frustrated progressive voters and activists in the party base. The Democrats also face electoral tests in the 2018 midterms and -- more importantly -- when Trump seeks re-election in 2020. Impacts House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is likely to face a post-midterms leadership challenge. More extreme Republican primary challengers backed by Steve Bannon could cost the Republicans otherwise winnable Senate seats. A sizeable contingent of Democratic senators are likely to vote with the 2020 presidential primaries in mind. A conservative Supreme Court ruling allowing partisan gerrymandering in key states will hinder Democratic House gains. Democratic weakness at the state level will have negative electoral and policymaking consequences at federal level.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio Mirza Maduro

This mini-review aims to reflect upon the conditions of penitentiaries in Brazil during times of the pandemic; it also brings to discussion the recent decision by the Supreme Court of Brazil which allowed for certain detainees to carry out their sentences under house arrest; in addition, it aims to discuss how the judges on lower courts have decided in light of the aforementioned Supreme Court ruling. By outlining the conditions of imprisonment that can be observed in the jailing system, the authors seek to critically reflect upon the role of justice in the society during times of hardship. The authors begin by tracing a historical background in a concise way, in order to elucidate how situations of illnesses and bereavement have developed during the years. After that, the authors compare judicial rulings involving the current prison status quo. To conclude, the authors seek to add to the debate joining the voices who cry out for more assertive measures in the preservation of life and health of detainees and prison workers.


Author(s):  
Gust A. Yep ◽  
Rebecca N. Gigi ◽  
Briana E. Avila

This chapter addresses the complex interplay between voice and silence in US LGBT communities. In terms of voice, the chapter focuses on Evan Wolfson, founder of Freedom to Marry and colloquially known as “Mr. Gay Marriage,” whose public comments on same-sex divorce before and after the Supreme Court ruling on marriage equality focused on two central themes: (1) fairness and (2) protection. In terms of silence, the chapter focuses on the largely absent discourse about same-sex divorce in mainstream LGBT online media to explore its multiple meanings. The analysis explores three major themes: (1) that same-sex divorce is a recent phenomenon, (2) that same-sex divorce may not be relevant to unconventional long-term relationships, and (3) that creation of a pseudo charmed circle suppresses the visibility of same-sex divorce. The chapter concludes by exploring the implications of the multiple meanings of voice and silence surrounding same-sex relational dissolution.


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