US-North Korea summit would have modest outcome

Significance The message was conveyed by a South Korean delegation in Washington, briefing Trump on its talks earlier this week in Pyongyang. North Korea had said, the delegation reported, that it is “committed to denuclearisation” if regime security is not at risk. This follows months of escalating friction between North Korea and the international community that has seen Pyongyang ramp up its intercontinental missile and nuclear testing. Impacts The risk of confrontation on the Korean Peninsula could be reduced while talks are being prepared. Trump may relax his hawkish trade policy in the interim, to avoid alienating partners he needs in managing Pyongyang, including Beijing. A successful Trump-Kim meeting could gain South Korea’s president political benefits. If significant moves towards denuclearisation did occur, Trump’s administration might revise its pro-nuclear defence strategy. Any sanctions relief could be politically beneficial to the Pyongyang regime, but too much opening up could undermine it.

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-184
Author(s):  
ShinHyung Seong

Peace matters in various ways in this globalized world, and the Korean Peninsula has been a critical situation in this matter, especially in the current climate. This article delves into Rev. Ik-whan Moon, a leader of the reunification movement, in South Korea in order to deal with the issue of peace. This article examines him in three parts: the enjoyable tenets of his life and social action, the theological meaning of his activism, and the new horizon of social activism through his new vision of the Kingdom of God. Rev. Moon began his social action at 59, but he dedicated his life to society as he wrote many poems, playing a part in the Korean reunification movement. His activism is based on his theology of the oppressed ( min-joong) and the Kingdom of God. Lastly, he created a historical momentum for the Korean reunification movement by visiting North Korea in 1989, in that he opened a new hope that South Korean civilians and North Korean civilians could meet each other. It was a non-obedience movement because no civilians could visit North Korea due to the National Security Law. Rev. Moon's actions towards Korean reunification give us great wisdom for peace in this contemporary violent world.


Subject US trade policy. Significance During his election campaign, Donald Trump slammed decades of US policy and pledged to secure better trade deals, putting 'America First'. Upon taking office, Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but six months on, his trade agenda remains disjointed. Impacts Trump could use executive powers in a more sweeping fashion if he cannot deliver trade changes via legislation. Washington will expand secondary trade sanctions on firms and people that deal with North Korea, most of which are Chinese. Securing 'big-ticket' export deals will be a means for Trump to deliver manufacturing jobs to his political heartland. US opposition to funding and reforms of international financial institutions could reduce the momentum behind global cooperation.


Subject Politics in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in has hailed the second summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump due to be held in Hanoi on February 27-28 as a “remarkable breakthrough” for peace on the Korean peninsula. Moon hopes the meeting will lead to an easing of sanctions on Pyongyang, enabling inter-Korean cooperation such as the relinking of roads and railways to progress, and that this will boost his waning popularity. Impacts US pressure on Seoul to pay more for US troops in South Korea may stoke anti-US sentiment. Rising tensions with Japan will ultimately cause problems for both countries, and their currently indifferent US ally. Pinning hopes on the unpredictable Kim and Trump is risky; failure with North Korea would galvanise the conservatives.


Headline NORTH KOREA: Hacking endangers South Korean security


Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  

Headline NORTH KOREA: US sanctions put rapprochement at risk


Significance This followed Pyongyang’s breach of its 17-month moratorium on missile testing with two volleys on May 4 and May 9, each personally supervised by Kim and both including short-range ballistic missile launches. Impacts Kim has given Washington until the end of the year to rethink its stance; that is possible but unlikely. Pyongyang’s new missile may be able to penetrate South Korean missile defences. South Korea will persevere with cooperation efforts for now, despite Pyongyang’s rebuffs.


Subject Prospects for North Korea in 2020. Significance 2020 will see tensions rise on and around the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang’s demand that Washington adopt a new approach to bilateral talks by end-2019 will go unmet, given President Donald Trump’s impeachment hearings and other preoccupations.


2020 ◽  
pp. 002200272097218
Author(s):  
Jordan Bernhardt ◽  
Lauren Sukin

A number of proposals for reducing tensions with North Korea have discussed alterations to the program of joint military exercises (JMEs) that South Korea holds. North Korea has also repeatedly called for a reduction or secession of JMEs. Would limiting or halting JMEs be a useful concession for securing a reduction of tensions on the peninsula? We argue that JMEs do not deter North Korea but, instead, provoke provocative rhetoric and actions, demonstrating that North Korea views JMEs as a serious threat to its security. In this paper, we establish a relationship between JMEs and North Korea’s actions. In response to a JME, North Korea can issue warnings or threats as well as take costly signals such as conducting missile or nuclear tests. Using new data on JMEs and North Korean behavior, we find that North Korea systematically responds with aggression to South Korean JMEs. Moreover, we find that the intensity of North Korea’s responses to JMEs is driven by the severity of the threat particular exercises pose, indicating that North Korea responds to JMEs as serious security threats.


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