India will struggle to create enough jobs

Subject India's problem of 'jobless' growth. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is facing criticism over the country’s ‘jobless’ growth. Modi in 2014 promised to create 10 million jobs per year, but estimates provided by India’s Labour Bureau suggest his government is falling far short of this target. Impacts India’s main opposition Congress party will emphasise the lack of job creation in its election campaigning. Further spending on infrastructure to help create jobs would put pressure on India’s fiscal deficit target. The government’s policy of disinvestment in public sector undertakings will raise concerns over job losses.

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.


Significance Ahead of the poll, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been consolidating its National Democratic Alliance (NDA). While the main opposition Congress party heads a United Progressive Alliance (UPA), a much-anticipated ‘Federal Front’ involving other opposition parties, and possibly the UPA, is yet to materialise. Impacts The BJP will play on India's recent military action targeting Pakistan-based militants, believing this improves its poll chances. Congress will attack Modi over jobless growth and farmer hardship, hoping to capitalise on signs of anger towards the prime minister. The election will see contention over electronic voting machines, with disputation likely to intensify in the event of a close result.


Subject Indian parties' outreach to young voters. Significance Last month, police in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh (UP) state, clashed violently with crowds of student teachers protesting their poor job prospects. There have been dozens of youth demonstrations against joblessness across the country this year. The general election will likely occur in April or May next year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will face a challenge from the main opposition Congress party and other national or state-based parties. Impacts Civil society critics will accuse the BJP of undermining academic freedoms in the country’s universities. Some university campuses could see outbreaks of violence around the time of the poll. While the BJP will highlight India’s robust growth figures in campaigning, opponents will criticise it for fostering jobless growth.


Significance Different states and union territories will go to the polls on different dates, with many voting in more than one phase. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from the main opposition Congress party and several regionally influential parties. Impacts Anti-Pakistan nationalism would favour the BJP but, unless there are further cross-border hostilities, it is unlikely to be a key factor. Outbreaks of religious or caste violence are most likely in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar states. The post-poll government will struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit, with both main parties’ campaign pledges straining budgetary prudence.


Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chetan Ghate ◽  
Debojyoti Mazumder

Purpose Governments in both developing and developed economies play an active role in labor markets in the form of providing both formal public sector jobs and employment through public workfare programs. The authors refer to this as employment targeting. The purpose of the paper is to consider different labor market effects of employment targeting in a stylized model of a developing economy. In the context of a simple search and matching friction model, the authors show that the propensity for the public sector to target more employment can increase the unemployment rate in the economy and lead to an increase in the size of the informal sector. Design/methodology/approach The model is an application of a search and matching model of labor market frictions, where agents have heterogeneous abilities. The authors introduce a public sector alongside the private sector in the economy. Wage in the private sector is determined through Nash bargaining, whereas the public sector wage is exogenously fixed. In this setup, the public sector hiring rate influences private sector job creation and hence the overall employment rate of the economy. As an extension, the authors model the informal sector coupled with the other two sectors. This resembles developing economies. Then, the authors check the overall labor market effects of employment targeting through public sector intervention. Findings In the context of a simple search and matching friction model with heterogeneous agents, the authors show that the propensity for the public sector to target more employment can increase the unemployment rate in the economy and lead to an increase in the size of the informal sector. Employment targeting can, therefore, have perverse effects on labor market outcomes. The authors also find that it is possible that the private sector wage falls as a result of an increase in the public sector hiring rate, which leads to more job creation in the private sector. Originality/value What is less understood in the literature is the impact of employment targeting on the size of the informal sector in developing economies. The authors fill this gap and show that public sector intervention can have perverse effects on overall job creation and the size of the informal sector. Moreover, a decrease in the private sector wage due to a rise in public sector hiring reverses the consensus findings in the search and matching literature which show that an increase in public sector employment disincentivizes private sector vacancy postings.


Significance Party President Rahul Gandhi’s Congress displaced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from power in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, all in the nationally ruling party’s ‘Hindu-Hindi’ heartland and with large rural constituencies. In recent months, opposition parties including Congress have been in talks about possibly forming a broad anti-BJP front to challenge Modi in the general election, likely in April or May next year. Impacts More farmer-led protests are likely ahead of the general election. Outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim violence are likely, especially in the north and west. Modi’s government will press the Reserve Bank of India to release more reserves and cut rates, hoping to boost growth.


Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.


Subject Prospects for India in 2018. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has responded to the recent economic slowdown by drawing up plans to recapitalise public sector banks (PSBs) and invest in infrastructure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also under pressure to create jobs. The government will be expected to deliver on its promises with elections due in around 18 months’ time.


Significance Both states currently have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). India’s main opposition Congress party and regional players are aiming to wrest power from them. Impacts In some parts of Maharashtra, there will likely be outbreaks of agrarian protest in the final stages of campaigning. Smaller parties could win more seats than Congress in the Haryana poll. Parties winning fewer votes in the elections will probably claim impropriety relating to electronic voting machines.


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