Challenges mount as Panama’s Varela enters final year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Port City ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Free Zone ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
The Government

Subject Presidential difficulties. Significance President Juan Carlos Varela’s position is becoming increasingly weak as he approaches his final year in office. Not only have protests against him shut down the port city of Colon, but the congressional opposition is mounting an attempt to take control of the legislative agenda. Alongside ongoing allegations of links to various corruption scandals, Varela will have little leeway to make progress on his policy goals ahead of elections in May 2019. Impacts The CD and PRD are aligned against the government but this alliance will splinter closer to the elections in 2019. The new credentials commission will likely appoint new Supreme Court justices sympathetic to the opposition. Any further protests have the potential to disrupt supplies to and from the Colon Free Zone, weighing on economic activity.

Modi's regulatory crackdown on NGOs could backfire

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Perceived Ability ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government

Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.

Regional allies may help to counter Congress in Peru

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Competition ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government

Subject Legislative implementation efforts. Significance By requesting special powers from Congress, the new administration hopes to speed up implementation of its legislative agenda. However, Congress -- in which the opposition Fuerza Popular (FP) is by far the largest party -- appears reluctant to offer the new administration a legislative carte blanche. It has the numbers to block all legislation. Impacts The left-wing FA is likely to become a more vociferous opposition to the government's pro-investment agenda than FP. Support for the government will ebb as its initial honeymoon period recedes. Political competition will become more bitter as the 2021 presidential contest approaches.

Prospects for Argentina in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Rapid Recovery ◽  
First Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Argentina in 2017. Significance The government has placed its hopes on a rapid recovery in economic activity and investment after admitting that many indicators have deteriorated in its first year in office. However, while there are some signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, these have yet to be felt at the popular level.

Libya’s Haftar may use Egypt ties to bolster his power

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Government ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Both have refused to reconcile fully with the internationally-recognised national government in Tripoli, the Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj. Relations between Egypt and Libya have important economic and security dimensions but suffered during the rule of former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi (in power 1969-2011). Impacts Trade and economic activity between Egypt and Libya will grow, despite Libya’s political troubles. A significant deterioration in security along the Egyptian-Libyan border is unlikely. Qatar and Turkey may yet make new efforts to counterbalance Egypt’s approach in Libya.

New Philippines auto policy unlikely to achieve aims

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Policy Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Automotive Production ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Jobs

Subject Philippines automobile sector expansion efforts. Significance The Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy (CARS) became active on January 3, following its announcement by the trade and industry department (DTI) and release of the implementing rules and regulations in 2015. CARS is the most ambitious industrial policy initiative of President Benigno Aquino's administration, seeking to turn the Philippines from a vehicles importer into a regional automotive production hub. Impacts The DTI hopes for 6.4 billion dollars in new economic activity from CARS, and up to 200,000 new jobs. CARS is unlikely to be a 2016 election issue, or to be reversed after Aquino's administration ends in May. The government will need to factor increasing auto usage into its development planning, perhaps requiring new roads.

Mining takes on renewed importance in Ecuador

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
Mine Development ◽  
Increased Activity

Subject The mining outlook in Ecuador. Significance The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government of President Rafael Correa to search for new sources of public revenue and foreign investment. The mining sector, which remains underdeveloped, has the potential to make significant contributions on both of these fronts. Reflecting the growing importance of the sector, the government has a created a Mining Ministry and appointed a mining minister. While numerous challenges continue to face the industry, it has shown signs of increased activity in the opening six months of the year. Impacts Opponents of mining development will attempt to impede medium and large-scale projects, through the courts and on the streets. Changes to water laws and policies will face opposition due to fears they may facilitate mine development and threaten water supplies. While investment in the mining sector will boost economic activity, the economy will expand more slowly than expected in 2015.

Purge brings rewards and risks for Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
The State ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Persecution ◽  
Political Purge

Subject Political purge. Significance Ecuador’s Supreme Court on November 7 ordered former President Rafael Correa (2007-17) to stand trial for his alleged involvement in the kidnapping of a political opponent in 2012. The order comes amid increasing efforts by President Lenin Moreno to purge Correa supporters from the government, legislature and bureaucracy and consolidate power. Correa, who now lives in Belgium, is out of reach of Moreno and the Supreme Court, but his popularity and influence in Ecuador endures and will cause ongoing problems for Moreno. Impacts The risk of political violence will increase as Correa and his supporters are locked out of formal political institutions. Correa will find it easier to claim political persecution if attacks against him and his supporters escalate. The arbitrary use of measures to purge Correa supporters from the state risks undermining trust in democratic institutions.

Israel’s government will struggle for fiscal austerity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government

Significance Although the economy has rebounded, the exit from crisis mode will be complicated, not least because of a sudden increase in new COVID-19 cases in the second half of June. Impacts Resurgent COVID-19 may force the government to reimpose some social distancing restrictions, weighing on economic activity. Segments of the country’s post-pandemic high unemployment could become chronic. Sharp deterioration in Israel’s debt-to-GDP ratio over 2020 will reduce fiscal space.

Acrimony over Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port City will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Port City ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Belt And Road

Significance Parliament passed a bill earlier in May authorising the president to form the commission after key amendments recommended by the Supreme Court were incorporated into the legislation. The Colombo Port City is a development that forms part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Impacts India will be wary of investing in the Colombo Port City. Sri Lankan imports from China will increase, helped by a recently agreed bilateral currency swap. The Rajapaksa government will remain popular with the country’s ethnic Sinhalese, Buddhist majority despite concerns about its China policy.

Mexico's pension challenges may be insurmountable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Fast Track ◽  
Pension System ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Informal Workers ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government ◽  
Huge Challenge ◽  
Legal Commitments

Subject With Mexico's population aging, past pension commitments present major problems for the current government. Significance Mexico is facing serious political and fiscal problems due to pension pledges that are becoming increasingly costly to cover. Reforms introduced in 1997 and 2007 have proved insufficient. The government now faces the huge challenge of bringing further reform to the pension system, while rebuffing the heavy criticism that will come from opposition parties as a result. Impacts With the government lacking a working majority in the Senate, any fast track pension legislation will be impossible. The Supreme Court would likely refuse to sanction any changes that imply a repudiation of legal commitments. On top of the pressure from those formally in work, the government will have to devise support for informal workers with no pension rights.

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