Corporate income tax gap estimation in the context of development of fiscal space

The article is devoted to the analysis of the corporate income tax gap as one of the indicators that characterizes the tax revenues that a country can accumulate accounting for its economic potential. The author summarizes the main theoretical views on the causes of the tax gap and investigates existing methodological approaches to assess the tax gap on corporate income tax in OECD countries. The article estimates the income tax gap under the OECD Revenue Administration - Gap Analysis Program, which is based on determining potential tax revenues by adjusting the aggregate indicators of the system of national accounts (gross output, mixed income), which, according to the analysis, averaged at 1.4% GDP in the period 2017-2019, which shows a potential for the development of the fiscal space of Ukraine. Upon analysis of the distribution of the tax gap between institutional sectors of the economy, the largest gap in income tax was found in the sector of foreign corporations whose potential tax revenues were estimated as tripled relative to the declared tax revenues accrued in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine in 2018. The author conducted a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of corporate income tax in Ukraine on the basis of tax efforts and budget efficiency ratios, which revealed significant weaknesses in comparison with similar indicators in other countries. The main measures aimed at eliminating tax gaps in OECD countries are summed up and recommendations are made for Ukraine.

Tax incentives for R&D in the context of the development of fiscal space

The article deals with the main R&D expenditure based tax incentives such as tax credit and enhanced allowances in the context of the development of fiscal space due to their impact on innovative activities of loss-making, small and medium enterprises as well as startups. The author disclosed basic features of R&D expenditure based tax incentives in comparison with tax exemptions and accelerated depreciation. Cross-country comparisons in OECD revealed that it is often a case when SMEs and startups enjoy R&D tax credit and enhanced allowance with higher rates. In addition, they can also claim full reimbursement of unused tax benefits for R&D while large companies can only count on partial or even non-reimbursement of unused tax benefits and limited carry over period. Implied tax subsidy rates on R&D are analyzed through different OECD countries, as well as through enterprises different in size and profitability. In 2019 the largest R&D tax benefits were offered to profitable SMEs in France (ITSR was 43%) and Portugal (ITSR was 39%). The ITSR methodology is used to work out scenarios of introduction of R&D expenditure -based tax incentives in Ukraine. Calculation results are presented. The state of R&D tax incentives in Ukraine in the case of aircraft industry is analyzed. The introduction R&D expenditure -based tax incentives is argued as a replacement of tax exemptions which are currently used as a measure for R&D promotion in the aircraft industry in Ukraine in terms of improvement of R&D tax support efficiency and spur successful development of high value-added industries as an important prerequisite for the development of fiscal space in Ukraine.

Financial sustainability as a factor of forming fiscal space of local budgets

The purpose of the research is to deepen the theoretical foundations of financial stability as a factor in shaping the fiscal space of local budgets and substantiate the methodological tools for assessing the financial stability of local budgets of Ukraine in the medium and long term. Methods. The following research methods were used in analysing the problem: induction, deduction, system approach, statistical analysis, logical generalization, graphical method. Results. Fiscal extension gives the opportunities to local authorities to obtain and use extra budget resources for achieving the goal taking into account the restrictions caused by the necessity to maintain the financial sustainability in mid- and long-term periods. A methodological toolkit for assessing the financial sustainability of local budgets in mid- and long-term periods is proposed. The complex of arguments for the appropriate applying of the estimation of financial sustainability of local budgets in the national practice using the methodology of the European Commission in the mid-term period is given. It is substantiated that the development of strategic directions for ensuring the long-term financial sustainability of local budgets in Ukraine should take place with the use of foresight. It is substantiated that the fiscal space provides opportunities for local governments to obtain and use extra budgetary resources to achieve a certain goal, taking into account the constraints due to the need to maintain financial stability in the medium- and long-term periods. Methodical tools for assessing the financial stability of local budgets in the medium- and long-term periods are proposed. A set of arguments on the expediency of applying the methodology of the European Commission in the medium-term period in the native practice of calculating the financial stability of local budgets is presented. It is substantiated that the development of strategic directions to ensure long-term financial stability of local budgets of Ukraine should take place using foresight. Practical meaning. The practical significance of the obtained results is in the possibility of using methodological tools to assess the effectiveness of local budget sustainability management by state and local authorities in developing and making management decisions to regulate the level of financial stability of local budgets. Prospects for further research. The formation of theoretical foundations of financial stability as a factor in the formation of the fiscal space of local budgets and substantiation of methodological tools for their assessment in the medium and long term periods confirms the need for further scientific substantiation of strategic directions of long-term financial stability of local budgets in Ukraine under the condition of decentralization.

How do the Tax Burden and the Fiscal Space in Latin America look like? Evidence through Laffer Curves

How much fiscal space do Latin American countries have to increase their tax burdens in the long term? This paper provides an answer through Laffer curves estimates for taxes on labor, capital, and consumption for the six largest emerging economies of the region: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Estimates are made using a neoclassical growth model with second-generation human capital and employing data from the national accounts system for the period from 1994 to 2017. Our findings allow us to compare the recent effective tax rates on factor returns against those which would maximize the government's revenues, and therefore to derive the potential tax-related fiscal space. Results suggest that joint fiscal space on labor and capital taxes would reach 6.5% of GDP for the region, on average, and that there are important differences among the countries.

FISCAL SPACE FOR EMERGENCIES IN MUNICIPALITIES

Emergencies that have become an integral part of the lives of different municipalities and the threat of their negative consequences requires an adequate response from local governments. The article outlines the main causes of such situations and substantiates the need to address them by joining efforts both at the national level and at the level of local self-government. The concept of fiscal space is considered by the authors as the presence of a certain budget reserve to achieve the desired goals without violating financial stability. In the context of emergencies, this is a fiscal space to fund certain goals, which can sometimes be actualized in a very short time (as happened with the situation in health care in 2020). The possibility of targeting the fiscal space in the field of health care, social protection, overcoming the effects of natural disasters, combating poverty, achieving the goals of sustainable development, etc. is noted. The article presents the results of a study of the impact of emergencies (eg, the COVID-19 pandemic) on the ability of local authorities to respond to their consequences. The authors analyzed budget expenditures to combat COVID-19 and assessed changes in the financial capacity of municipalities and funding priorities, including funding for pandemic control at the national and subnational levels, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on municipal finances in terms of compliance with the principles of the European Charter of Local Self-Government, the impact on funding priorities at the local level and municipality development strategies, the ability of local governments to respond to emergencies and highlighted some already tested effective practices. The article examines the methods of forming fiscal space, which were used to overcome the consequences of emergencies: reprioritization of expenditures, improving the efficiency of available resources, revenues to local budgets, which are additionally obtained due to understatement of initial revenue plans, reserve fund. Key words: fiscal space, emergencies, municipal finances, municipalities. JEL Classification r51 Formulas: 0; fig.: 1; tabl.: 1; bibl.: 15.

Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?

This paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation for 44 countries, from 1960 to 2020. The study was conducted using a panel VAR approach while accounting for the difference in monetary policy frameworks and the levels of fiscal space across countries. Results suggest that budget deficits are less likely to cause inflation when monetary policy is based on inflation targeting. In contrast, they are inflationary in the group of countries with a poorly structured monetary policy (such as partially dollarized Latin American economies).

Governance and Economic Impact of Covid-19 in Indian Federation

In the year 2019–2020, Indian economy was already on its trough and the incidence of coronavirus pandemic in 2020–2021 has further deteriorated the economic condition, limiting the fiscal space of the government. As need of the hour was to take some supportive measures to handle such an unusual situation, therefore various monetary and fiscal measures were taken by the government to overcome the impact of the pandemic. This resulted in overshooting of the fiscal deficit target set under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act (2003) and made the government to revise its fiscal deficit target of 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020–2021 Budget Estimates (BE) and 9.5% in 2020–2021 Revised Estimates (RE), and further it is projected as 6.8% of GDP for 2021–2022 (BE). After an estimated 7.7% pandemic-driven contraction in 2020–2021, India’s real GDP is projected to record growth of 11.0% in 2021–2022 and nominal GDP by 15.4%. The government is expected to generate 23% more revenue and has budgeted to increase its spending by only 0.95% in FY22 as compared to FY21 (RE). In order to deal with pandemic situation, the economists have suggested more active, counter-cyclical fiscal policy to enable growth during economic downturn. However, due to lack of revenue sources, it also becomes important to strategise the path for fiscal consolidation for the ensuing years.