Prospects for Argentina in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Rapid Recovery ◽  
First Year ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for Argentina in 2017. Significance The government has placed its hopes on a rapid recovery in economic activity and investment after admitting that many indicators have deteriorated in its first year in office. However, while there are some signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, these have yet to be felt at the popular level.

Libya’s Haftar may use Egypt ties to bolster his power

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Government ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance Both have refused to reconcile fully with the internationally-recognised national government in Tripoli, the Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj. Relations between Egypt and Libya have important economic and security dimensions but suffered during the rule of former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qadhafi (in power 1969-2011). Impacts Trade and economic activity between Egypt and Libya will grow, despite Libya’s political troubles. A significant deterioration in security along the Egyptian-Libyan border is unlikely. Qatar and Turkey may yet make new efforts to counterbalance Egypt’s approach in Libya.

New Philippines auto policy unlikely to achieve aims

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Policy Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Automotive Production ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Jobs

Subject Philippines automobile sector expansion efforts. Significance The Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy (CARS) became active on January 3, following its announcement by the trade and industry department (DTI) and release of the implementing rules and regulations in 2015. CARS is the most ambitious industrial policy initiative of President Benigno Aquino's administration, seeking to turn the Philippines from a vehicles importer into a regional automotive production hub. Impacts The DTI hopes for 6.4 billion dollars in new economic activity from CARS, and up to 200,000 new jobs. CARS is unlikely to be a 2016 election issue, or to be reversed after Aquino's administration ends in May. The government will need to factor increasing auto usage into its development planning, perhaps requiring new roads.

Brazil impeachment battle will do short-term damage

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
First Year ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Government ◽  
Legal Grounds ◽  
Deep Recession ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

Significance This comes near the end of a tremendously challenging first year of Rousseff's second term, marked by collapsing popularity, mass protests and deep recession. However, impeachment is far from a foregone conclusion. The legal grounds are unclear and the government seems more likely than not to have enough congressional support to stave off the process. Indeed, the timing could increase the odds that Rousseff will complete her term. Impacts Financial markets will be especially volatile in the coming months. At best, a recovery in the real economy will not start before late 2016 or even 2017. Nevertheless, impeachment turbulence could gradually lead to more stable politics.

Mining takes on renewed importance in Ecuador

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Revenue ◽  
The Government ◽  
Laws And Policies ◽  
Mine Development ◽  
Increased Activity

Subject The mining outlook in Ecuador. Significance The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government of President Rafael Correa to search for new sources of public revenue and foreign investment. The mining sector, which remains underdeveloped, has the potential to make significant contributions on both of these fronts. Reflecting the growing importance of the sector, the government has a created a Mining Ministry and appointed a mining minister. While numerous challenges continue to face the industry, it has shown signs of increased activity in the opening six months of the year. Impacts Opponents of mining development will attempt to impede medium and large-scale projects, through the courts and on the streets. Changes to water laws and policies will face opposition due to fears they may facilitate mine development and threaten water supplies. While investment in the mining sector will boost economic activity, the economy will expand more slowly than expected in 2015.

Challenges mount as Panama’s Varela enters final year

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Port City ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Free Zone ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Legislative Agenda ◽  
The Government

Subject Presidential difficulties. Significance President Juan Carlos Varela’s position is becoming increasingly weak as he approaches his final year in office. Not only have protests against him shut down the port city of Colon, but the congressional opposition is mounting an attempt to take control of the legislative agenda. Alongside ongoing allegations of links to various corruption scandals, Varela will have little leeway to make progress on his policy goals ahead of elections in May 2019. Impacts The CD and PRD are aligned against the government but this alliance will splinter closer to the elections in 2019. The new credentials commission will likely appoint new Supreme Court justices sympathetic to the opposition. Any further protests have the potential to disrupt supplies to and from the Colon Free Zone, weighing on economic activity.

Diverse neighbors and post-conflict recovery at the village level: Evidence from Iraq after ISIL

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332110391
Author(s):  
Lloyd Lyall
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
First Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
Spatial Autoregression ◽  
Village Level ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government

Why do some towns recover faster than others after intrastate conflict? Many important decisions about post-conflict recovery are made at the substate level, but little empirical work has investigated what causes differences in recovery outcomes within a country. This article suggests that proximity to ethno-religiously diverse neighbors slows a town’s post-conflict recovery. A town has ‘diverse neighbors’ if towns with different plurality ethno-religious groups are nearby. This hypothesis is tested by exploring variation in recovery speed among Iraqi towns after the 2014–17 Islamic State insurgency (ISIL). The article constructs 81-month panels of economic activity for 379 Iraqi settlements occupied by ISIL by using satellite-observed nighttime light emissions as a proxy for economic activity. The panels reveal large variation in post-conflict recovery among towns during the first year of peace. Village-level survey data are then used to construct a measure of neighbor diversity, which is combined with lighting-based recovery scores in spatial autoregression. The results show that greater neighbor diversity is robustly associated with slower settlement recovery. The neighbor diversity penalty cannot be fully explained by cleavages between groups ‘on opposite sides’ of the conflict; proximity to out-group neighbors appears to slow recovery even between wartime allies. Several explanations are considered, and this article suggests that the types of post-liberation controllers that arise in diverse areas – which tend to be substate militias rather than the government – may be one important mechanism.

Israel’s government will struggle for fiscal austerity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government

Significance Although the economy has rebounded, the exit from crisis mode will be complicated, not least because of a sudden increase in new COVID-19 cases in the second half of June. Impacts Resurgent COVID-19 may force the government to reimpose some social distancing restrictions, weighing on economic activity. Segments of the country’s post-pandemic high unemployment could become chronic. Sharp deterioration in Israel’s debt-to-GDP ratio over 2020 will reduce fiscal space.

Stability and risk-aversion mark Sri Lanka's outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
First Year ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Political Challenge ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Political and economic outlook. Significance The national unity government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe completed its first year in July. After a phase of poor cohesion and unpopular decisions, the government is regaining public support. Sirisena, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Wickremesinghe, leader of the United National Party (UNP), have extended their alliance to 2020, boosting political stability. Yet significant economic and political challenges remain. Impacts Dependence on Chinese investment is unavoidable, but Colombo will seek new partners. Rajapaksa will remain the most important political challenge for the government. Ethnic reconciliation is a distant dream, but overt tensions are subsiding.

External financing may buoy Tunisia's economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Industrial Action ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Many

Subject Prospects for the Tunisian economy since the formation of the coalition government. Significance Headwinds to the Tunisian economy are emerging from many directions: industrial action, a security-related shock to tourism and poor rainfall are all providing significant resistance to government efforts to stimulate economic activity. A great deal of focus will turn to how the government handles the many economic and security disruptions it faces. Impacts The decline in global oil prices gives the government some modest breathing space for the national budget. It should also lay the groundwork for longer-term subsidy reduction. However, it will not provide much of a boost to the economy since it is not directly passed through to businesses and consumers.

COVID-19 to compound Nicaragua’s economic woes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The Public ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Revenues

Subject Economic troubles. Significance Nicaragua’s economic activity has contracted sharply since the outbreak of civil unrest in 2018. Social tensions, political gridlock and business uncertainty have weighed heavily on investment and consumption, driving unemployment and capital outflows. A severe tightening of available financing due to sanctions and plummeting public revenues has forced the government to cut spending, exacerbating the downturn. Nicaragua so far appears to have avoided the worst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, with only a handful of confirmed cases to date. However, an alarming lack of preventative action increases contagion risks both nationally and regionally and will threaten economic activity in the medium term. Impacts Government inaction on COVID-19 will exacerbate the public-health impact, potentially resulting in a substantial death toll. Washington will not ease sanctions in light of COVID-19 and may instead redouble efforts to force governmental change. The exchange rate will continue to weaken, posing a threat to the dollarised economy.

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