Corruption will undermine Lao reforestation efforts

Subject Deforestation and corruption in Laos. Significance Illegal logging is contributing to deforestation in Laos. About 40% of the country is now covered in forest, but the government seeks a return to the 70% level seen in the 1950s. Impacts Laos’s rural poor, who depend on the forests for their livelihoods, will see declining incomes. Logging corruption will likely dissuade most foreign companies from investing in Lao energy and infrastructure projects. Chinese and Vietnamese firms may assume the reputational risk of working in Laos’s forestry sector, operating on the margins of legality.

Subject Mining outlook. Significance The administration of President Jimmy Morales has resisted renewed calls to resurrect a former moratorium on mining activity. However, efforts to expand the sector have still suffered numerous setbacks in the form of protests, adverse court decisions and ongoing investigations into potential links between projects and the corrupt administration of former President Otto Perez Molina (2012-15). Impacts Weak structures for monitoring revenues will hinder progress towards membership of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. Potential probes into operations that received mining licences under Perez Molina may expose some firms to sanctions and reputational risk. Popular opposition to some projects could lead the government to revisit proposals to increase royalty charges for firms in the sector.


Significance This followed a prominent display of placards at the PKR's conference in favour of the imprisoned Anwar Ibrahim becoming prime minister, a position the party has long held. Impacts The BN-led government will likely support another push by the PAS to pass Islamic criminal punishment reforms in parliament. This would add to pressure on the PH, as Amanah also favours Islamic politics. Ahead of the election, the government will likely prioritise East Malaysian infrastructure projects.


Subject Chinese banks in Panama. Significance The world’s largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), is likely to open its doors in Panama this year as part of a new era of cooperation between the countries following the Panamanian government’s decision last year to abandon its long-standing support of Taiwan and begin diplomatic relations with China. Impacts Chinese banks will be keen to tap into the financing opportunities offered by Panama’s investment projects. The Panamanian government will encourage these banks to participate in public tenders for infrastructure projects. Despite recent improvements, Panama’s banking sector will still expose incomers to considerable reputational risk.


Subject Communist Party control over private businesses. Significance The Chinese Communist Party sees itself as a 'vanguard party'. That is, it governs by leading other social groups, including the government and private enterprise. Reforms over the years have withdrawn the government from direct control of many industries, but the Party is reasserting control behind the scenes. Impacts In the business sector, control by the state is being replaced with control by the Party; enterprise is not an independent sector. Large private sector firms such as China's ICT giants are subject to the influence and occasional control of Party groups. Party infrastructure in foreign companies is growing, and the Party may take a closer look at business decisions.


Subject The Turkmen government's attempt to curb spending. Significance A sharp curtailment in the subsidies on which Turkmenistan's leadership once prided itself reflects a new drive to rationalise spending as hydrocarbons revenues fail to support previous levels of budget spending. There is no sign yet that the government is switching off state funding for prestige projects. Impacts The government cannot afford lavish infrastructure projects but will at least complete those now under way. Ministers and other officials will be sacked on a regular basis and blamed for economic failures. China will ensure that it pays the minimum for the Turkmen gas it buys.


Subject Economic update. Significance Landlocked and with meagre infrastructure relative to its large size, Chad depends heavily on oil for export earnings. Under 18s make up more than half of the country’s population of 15.5 million, and poverty levels are high. President Idriss Deby has been in power for nearly 29 years and will have noted with some concern the sustained protest campaign in neighbouring Sudan which led to the ouster of its long-standing president earlier this year. Impacts Allegations or revelations about corruption could prompt the government to initiate new anti-graft measures, albeit likely symbolic. Public infrastructure projects will be hamstrung by financing shortages. Oil output is unlikely to grow significantly.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Bogue

Purpose This paper aims to provide an insight into China’s rapidly developing robot industry. Design/methodology/approach Following a short introduction, this paper first provides a market perspective and then identifies the key user industries and gives examples of applications. The robot supply companies are considered and details are provided for some of the more important. The research effort is then discussed, together with some examples of recent developments. Finally, conclusions are drawn. Findings The Chinese robot market is the largest in the world although the robot density remains far lower than that of many other industrialised nations. Major users include the electrical and electronics sector and the automotive industry, together with growing applications in the burgeoning hospitality and logistics sectors. Markets are presently dominated by foreign companies, but the government has ambitious plans to boost domestic production, and with the aid of financial incentives, the number of Chinese robot manufactures has recently increased dramatically. The country’s robot research effort is diverse and wide ranging and benefits from significant levels of government funding. China is ultimately expected to become a major force within the global robot business. Originality/value This illustrates the growing importance of robots in China, both in its industries and as a robot manufacturer.


Significance They will probably discuss the final draft of the peace agreement between the two main rival political blocs: the pro-Islamist Libya Dawn bloc led by the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) parliament, and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) supported by the anti-Islamist Dignity bloc led by General Khalifa Haftar. Efforts to reach agreement on creating a single government -- the Government of National Accord (GNA) -- have been bulding over the past year. This has stoked rejectionists and spoilers on both sides, although an increase in local ceasefire initiatives has increased the prospects of a deal. Impacts Any new government would likely move quickly to sign deals with foreign companies on construction, electricity and water provision. However, it would likely be split between those preferring to work with European and Turkish or US and UK companies. Fragmentation and the need to meet urgent political deadlines, such as on the constitution, will hamper the GNA's effectiveness.


Significance The government is counting on its multi-sector Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to entice domestic and foreign companies to invest in local manufacturing. It wants gross value added (GVA) in Indian manufacturing industries to reach USD1tn by 2025. Impacts India, Japan and Australia will look for support from South-east Asian countries for their Supply Chain Resilience Initiative. China will initiate more WTO disputes with India over trade barriers. Barriers to Chinese components will disrupt supplies of inputs to Indian manufacturing in the medium term.


Significance The erosion of the rule of law and systemic corruption have not had a substantial impact on capital attraction. Despite occasional anti-capitalist rhetoric and measures to expel foreign companies in some sectors such as media, banking and energy, the government makes individual deals with multinational firms and tries to accommodate them into a 'new normal' based on loyalty to it. Impacts Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party has a slightly better chance of winning the elections than its main rival. Hungary would adopt a tough position towards China if the united opposition won the election. Germany’s pragmatic and economy-first approach to Hungary will not change following its own September 27 elections.


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