Turkmen cost-cutting may encourage thrift

Subject The Turkmen government's attempt to curb spending. Significance A sharp curtailment in the subsidies on which Turkmenistan's leadership once prided itself reflects a new drive to rationalise spending as hydrocarbons revenues fail to support previous levels of budget spending. There is no sign yet that the government is switching off state funding for prestige projects. Impacts The government cannot afford lavish infrastructure projects but will at least complete those now under way. Ministers and other officials will be sacked on a regular basis and blamed for economic failures. China will ensure that it pays the minimum for the Turkmen gas it buys.

Significance This followed a prominent display of placards at the PKR's conference in favour of the imprisoned Anwar Ibrahim becoming prime minister, a position the party has long held. Impacts The BN-led government will likely support another push by the PAS to pass Islamic criminal punishment reforms in parliament. This would add to pressure on the PH, as Amanah also favours Islamic politics. Ahead of the election, the government will likely prioritise East Malaysian infrastructure projects.


Subject Retail sector woes. Significance The trend towards online shopping is progressing fast in the advanced economies at the same time as rising housing, transport, health and utility costs are squeezing incomes and adding to the decline of traditional retailing. Sharply weaker UK consumer spending is putting yet more pressure on retailers’ profit margins, forcing rapid cost cutting, restructuring and the widespread closure of less viable outlets. Job losses and vacant retail premises are rising; the latter adding to urban decay in the worst affected areas. Impacts Retailing job losses dominate headlines but shop closures will have a larger and more pernicious impact on economic and social conditions. If UK regeneration efforts gain momentum and boost the budget and the government popularity, other regions could follow the UK template. Action needs to be taken to find urban redevelopment solutions and to boost public confidence in the positive effects of new technologies.


Subject Economic update. Significance Landlocked and with meagre infrastructure relative to its large size, Chad depends heavily on oil for export earnings. Under 18s make up more than half of the country’s population of 15.5 million, and poverty levels are high. President Idriss Deby has been in power for nearly 29 years and will have noted with some concern the sustained protest campaign in neighbouring Sudan which led to the ouster of its long-standing president earlier this year. Impacts Allegations or revelations about corruption could prompt the government to initiate new anti-graft measures, albeit likely symbolic. Public infrastructure projects will be hamstrung by financing shortages. Oil output is unlikely to grow significantly.


Subject Deforestation and corruption in Laos. Significance Illegal logging is contributing to deforestation in Laos. About 40% of the country is now covered in forest, but the government seeks a return to the 70% level seen in the 1950s. Impacts Laos’s rural poor, who depend on the forests for their livelihoods, will see declining incomes. Logging corruption will likely dissuade most foreign companies from investing in Lao energy and infrastructure projects. Chinese and Vietnamese firms may assume the reputational risk of working in Laos’s forestry sector, operating on the margins of legality.


Significance Finance Minister Giovanni Tria is aiming to implement gradually the government programme, funded by both deficit and cost-cutting measures within the limits allowed by EU treaties. Meanwhile, the two coalition parties are calling for more fiscal room to implement their flagship promises. Impacts The government could increase its deficit targets to 1.9% and 1.6% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Italian assets will remain volatile with high risk premiums until the government clarifies its position on public finances. In case of a new government, an M5S-Democratic Party coalition seems the most politically achievable, although perhaps not the most viable. If fresh elections are called, they will be held in early 2019 at the earliest.


Subject Tanzania's controversial hydroelectric project at Stiegler's Gorge. Significance President John Magufuli is championing the construction of a new mega-dam: the Stiegler’s Gorge Project. In October, Arab Contractors, an Egyptian construction firm with little hydropower experience, was announced as the dam’s builder, and Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi was invited to lay the foundation stone. However, the project is also deeply controversial as Stiegler’s Gorge lies in the biodiverse heartland of the UNESCO World Heritage Selous Game Reserve. Impacts The dam is likely to face significant continued opposition from governments, academics and civil society groups. The government may choose to use the power for industrial purposes rather than to electrify the country and increase access for citizens. Tanzania’s lack of experience in delivering infrastructure projects on this scale and its history of corruption will elevate concerns.


Significance The government is pressing ahead with key developments in the energy sector. These include attempts to boost electricity supply and reduce dependence on Iranian gas and power. Impacts Washington will continue supplying sanctions waivers, fearing the effects of instability. Compliance with OPEC cuts will be weak. Cooperation on exports of Kirkuk oil to Turkey via the Kurdistan pipeline may expand. New oil field development and infrastructure projects will not have a significant impact this year.


Author(s):  
Zhan Su ◽  
Jianmin Tang

Purpose It has been suggested that to be successful in the current global economy with increased competition and ever changing markets, especially in the post-crisis context, firms need to focus more on innovation in exploring new ideas and designing new products to develop new markets than on cost-cutting strategies to maintain cost leadership in old markets. However, because of the lack of micro data, this conjecture has not been systematically evaluated. This paper aims to fill this important void by studying the economic performance associated with these two different business strategies using Canadian micro data. Design/methodology/approach The main data for our analysis are from the Survey of Innovation and Business Strategy (2009 and 2012) which is a sample-based survey of Canadian government. The authors used in this research regression models for the econometric analysis of the underlying factors for undertaking certain business strategies and how business strategies link to economic performance. They also used propensity score matching to ensure the group of firms with innovation strategy being comparable to that with cost-cutting. Findings The research shows that firms focusing on product innovation are indeed more productive than firms focusing on cost-cutting, although there is no evidence that these two different strategies make a difference in profitability. The first indication from the research has been that certain characteristics of Canadian firms are very useful predictors for firms to undertake product innovation. They are, among other things, the age of the firms, the single-establishment structure of the business and being multinationals. Research limitations/implications This empirical research opens up many interesting avenues for future research. Some other variables could be integrated into the models to increase the rate of explained variance. Moreover, because this research is based only on the case of Canadian firms and for a relatively short period of four years after the 2008 crisis, an extension to other context and to a longer period of time should be interesting. Practical implications The research has confirmed that Canadian firms adopting long-term business strategies based on product innovation are more productive. Social implications The results truly concur with the vision of the Government of Canada, like some other developed countries, on the importance of innovation and its policies in encouraging business innovation in driving the growth of the Canadian economy and improving the standard of living of country. Originality/value Mainly because of the lack of micro data, the existing researches have not provided solid evidence on why firms are choosing different business strategies when they are operating in the same business conditions and how the financial crisis has affected the undertaking of business strategies. They have not established a clear linkage between economic performance and different business strategies, although there has been some anecdotal evidence about their association. This study aims to bridge the knowledge gaps with theoretical and practical contributions.


Subject Auditor general's report. Significance The auditor general's report on the 2013-2014 financial period has indicated that only around one quarter of all national government money spent and collected was properly accounted for. The report covers the first year in power for President Uhuru Kenyatta's government, which has consistently pledged to reduce financial mismanagement. However, the report, combined with mounting concerns about corruption at the county level, calls into question whether the Jubilee Alliance has the will or capacity to bring the problem under control. Impacts Claims of financial abuse heighten distrust of the government in opposition communities who feel excluded from access to state resources. Rising corruption will deter foreign investors, reinforcing Kenya's tendency to underperform on foreign investment levels. Corruption is undermining major infrastructure projects, preventing the economic gains that would come from better roads and railways.


Significance Chinese firms have established a strong position in Iraq’s oil sector, strengthened further in the most recent bid round. At the same time, some Western companies are implementing or considering a reduction in their holdings, given poor fiscal terms, capacity constraints and strategic shifts. Impacts With few resources beyond oil, the government will seek to target further production growth once OPEC+ constraints ease. Gas is likely to be an increasingly important focus area, given Baghdad’s need to expand power provision. Upcoming major infrastructure projects create opportunities for Chinese companies as both investors and contractors.


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