Modi could rely more on Hindu nationalism in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Unfair Trade ◽  
Do So

Subject Modi's likely approach to the 2019 elections. Significance India’s general election is likely to occur in April or May 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power in May 2014 on promises to transform India’s society and economy. In seeking to preserve his position, Modi has begun to emphasise protectionism and national interest. Impacts India will raise tariff barriers on Chinese goods and may do so on US ones, pushing back on what it regards as unfair trade policies. Low-level political violence between different religious and caste communities is likely in the lead-up to the election. The poll is likely to see contention over the credibility of electronic voting machines.

Modi’s party will easily win upcoming state polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Both states currently have chief ministers from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). India’s main opposition Congress party and regional players are aiming to wrest power from them. Impacts In some parts of Maharashtra, there will likely be outbreaks of agrarian protest in the final stages of campaigning. Smaller parties could win more seats than Congress in the Haryana poll. Parties winning fewer votes in the elections will probably claim impropriety relating to electronic voting machines.

Modi’s main test now will be to manage his alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.

India's public health will be an election battleground

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Party Chief

Subject India's nationwide clean-up campaign. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’ (‘Clean India Mission’) is now in its fifth and final year. While the programme aims to eliminate the country’s culture of open defecation, many Dalits (historically regarded as ‘untouchable’) working as manual scavengers continue to make up for an infrastructure deficit in urban sewerage. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election, likely in April or May next year, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from rivals including the main opposition Congress party. Impacts The BJP’s election campaign will likely have a strong emphasis on Hindu nationalism. Mayawati, Bahujan Samaj Party chief and a Dalit, will be a key figure in talks about forming a broad anti-BJP alliance for the election. Water shortages could prompt pre-poll protests in several cities across India.

Indian farmers will push government further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier in the month that the reforms would be revoked. The laws sparked a major protest movement among farmers, who maintained that the legislation favoured corporate players over them. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) probably feared that the agitation would hurt it in some of the state elections due early next year. Impacts Modi’s government may in the medium term try to revive aspects of the repealed legislation in a piecemeal way. The BJP will step up appeals to Hindu nationalism in the upcoming state polls, hoping to shore up support from its base. Any crackdown by security forces on ongoing farmer protests would work against Modi’s party in the elections.

Modi's stance on religious violence faces major tests

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Religious Plurality ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Outlook for communal politics and conflict. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing pressure to distance himself from the Hindu nationalist hard-right, with which he has been associated throughout his political career. This pressure has emerged both externally and internally: while US President Barack Obama during his official visit to India underlined the necessity of preserving India's religious plurality, the heavy defeat of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi state elections was seen partly as the electorate's rejection of Hindu nationalism. Impacts Delhi's ties with Dhaka could worsen if election campaigning in Assam results in acute anti-migrant/anti-Muslim violence. A major episode of communal violence would damage India's ties with Middle Eastern and Western partners. Hindu nationalist groups will pose a risk to Modi's policies on land and subsidies.

Modi’s party will not yet seek uniform civil code

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Women ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Marriage Contract ◽  
Personal Law ◽  
Cow Protection

Subject Indian government's efforts to criminalise triple talaq. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking to outlaw Muslim men’s right to terminate a marriage contract by thrice pronouncing “talaq” (divorce). The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in December mobilised its majority in parliament’s lower house to pass the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, though the legislation was blocked in the upper house last month. The bill, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi championed personally, is regarded by some as overdue protection for Muslim wives and by others as an attack on Muslim personal law. Impacts The BJP’s Hindu nationalism will help it to win upcoming polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and hold power in those states. Elections in states with sizeable Muslim populations are likely to see outbreaks of communal violence ahead of polls. Further attacks on Muslims by cow protection vigilantes are likely.

India’s election will see patchwork opposition to Modi

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Close Result ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Ahead of the poll, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been consolidating its National Democratic Alliance (NDA). While the main opposition Congress party heads a United Progressive Alliance (UPA), a much-anticipated ‘Federal Front’ involving other opposition parties, and possibly the UPA, is yet to materialise. Impacts The BJP will play on India's recent military action targeting Pakistan-based militants, believing this improves its poll chances. Congress will attack Modi over jobless growth and farmer hardship, hoping to capitalise on signs of anger towards the prime minister. The election will see contention over electronic voting machines, with disputation likely to intensify in the event of a close result.

Unions will push back on labour reform in India

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Training ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Indian government's plans for labour reform. Significance Several trade unions earlier this month held protests over labour codes introduced into parliament by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Unemployment reached a 45-year high in 2017-18. Modi, who recently won a second term, came to power in 2014 promising to create 10 million jobs per year, focusing especially on manufacturing. Impacts The government will aim to expand work training, hoping to upskill the population. Critics will press the government to bolster employment by prioritising investment stimuli. Rising numbers of educated but jobless youths could express their frustrations through political violence.

Modi’s party will be relaxed about upcoming polls

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
National Profile ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.

E-commerce set to transform India's retailers

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Online Retail ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Small Traders

Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.

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