Unions will push back on labour reform in India

Subject Indian government's plans for labour reform. Significance Several trade unions earlier this month held protests over labour codes introduced into parliament by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Unemployment reached a 45-year high in 2017-18. Modi, who recently won a second term, came to power in 2014 promising to create 10 million jobs per year, focusing especially on manufacturing. Impacts The government will aim to expand work training, hoping to upskill the population. Critics will press the government to bolster employment by prioritising investment stimuli. Rising numbers of educated but jobless youths could express their frustrations through political violence.

Subject French trade unions. Significance French trade unions have found themselves at the centre of a continuing and powerful social movement against the labour reform proposed by the government under President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. However, the strong opposition is not just driven by the content of the reform but also by the power struggle among trade unions which are now split into 'reformist' and 'non-reformist' camps. Impacts The division between trade unions is likely to lead to a radicalisation of the non-reformist unions with violent strikes continuing. The government will be held responsible for the lock-down, which will weaken Hollande's re-election bid further. The labour reform dispute could relegitimise non-reformist trade unions in the long term, complicating future reform attempts.


Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.


Subject Prospects for India in 2018. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has responded to the recent economic slowdown by drawing up plans to recapitalise public sector banks (PSBs) and invest in infrastructure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also under pressure to create jobs. The government will be expected to deliver on its promises with elections due in around 18 months’ time.


Subject Modi's likely approach to the 2019 elections. Significance India’s general election is likely to occur in April or May 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power in May 2014 on promises to transform India’s society and economy. In seeking to preserve his position, Modi has begun to emphasise protectionism and national interest. Impacts India will raise tariff barriers on Chinese goods and may do so on US ones, pushing back on what it regards as unfair trade policies. Low-level political violence between different religious and caste communities is likely in the lead-up to the election. The poll is likely to see contention over the credibility of electronic voting machines.


Subject Prospects for India to end-2019. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently secured a second term, with his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) extending its parliamentary majority. In the second half of this year, the government will aim to begin delivering on its campaign pledges besides negotiating diplomatic quandaries.


Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).


Subject Political situation in Belgium. Significance The centre-right Belgian government coalition, led by Prime Minister Charles Michel, has pursued a reformist agenda since it came into power in 2014. However, this has been met with opposition from trade unions and the public. While the government has implemented some of its planned reforms, more work is required to reform the country’s welfare system and increase employment. Meanwhile, regional tensions between Flanders and Wallonia remain an issue. Impacts The modest economic recovery will probably continue, with GDP growth forecast to reach 1.4% this year. The government's reforms are expected to lead to the creation of 120,000 jobs in 2017. Although the public deficit is expected to be below 3% of GDP this year, the consolidation of public finances will remain a priority. Islamist terrorism continues to pose a threat and the country remains on high alert.


Subject Tensions between the co-chairs of Nepal's ruling party. Significance In recent weeks, tensions have grown between the Nepal Communist Party (NCP)’s co-chairs, Prime Minister KP Oli and PK Dahal (‘Prachanda’). Ahead of the NCP’s formation early last year through a merger of the two leaders’ erstwhile parties, Oli and Prachanda reportedly agreed to lead the government for equal periods. As Oli comes under pressure to ensure he complies, former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, who wields strong influence within Oli’s faction in the NCP, has spoken out against the incumbent. Impacts Oli and Prachanda will in the short term probably put on a show of solidarity, aiming to dispel any notion of governing instability. The main opposition Nepali Congress may try to form closer links with India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, hoping for its tacit support. If Prachanda takes power, he may face calls to take a harder line on former comrades within the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist).


Author(s):  
Afroz Ahmad ◽  
Usha Roopnarain

The last Indian parliamentary election held in 2014, proved to be the finest example of India’s age-old commitment towards the pinnacle of democratic norms. India had set a niche by conducting the largest democratic franchise in history. First time ever since the 1984, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved the majority in the Lok Sabha without clubbing with coalition partners. It also got the absolute mandate to rule India’s federal government by ending the Congress monopoly. Interestingly, the Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in his campaigns criticized Congress-led United Progressive Alliance II (UPA II) for its impotency towards establishing friendly and cooperative relations with India’s neighbors. He also gave assurance that if his party (BJP) got the mandate, his leadership would adopt appropriate measures to resuscitate convivial ties with neighbors. Since forming the government, Prime Minister Modi has been persistently trying to pursue those promises by proceeding towards friendly ties with India’s neighbors. In the light of above discussion, this paper seeks to critically analyze the progress in Indo-Nepal relations under BJP government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.


Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.


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