Indian farmers will push government further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier in the month that the reforms would be revoked. The laws sparked a major protest movement among farmers, who maintained that the legislation favoured corporate players over them. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) probably feared that the agitation would hurt it in some of the state elections due early next year. Impacts Modi’s government may in the medium term try to revive aspects of the repealed legislation in a piecemeal way. The BJP will step up appeals to Hindu nationalism in the upcoming state polls, hoping to shore up support from its base. Any crackdown by security forces on ongoing farmer protests would work against Modi’s party in the elections.

Modi’s main test now will be to manage his alliance

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has retained a parliamentary majority and the BJP has extended its single-party majority. During campaigning, Modi emphasised nationalist themes, ranging from Hindu nationalism to national security, while deflecting criticism over problems such as the country’s jobless growth. Impacts The BJP’s pledge to spend 100 trillion rupees (1.4 trillion dollars) on infrastructure will likely prompt a widening of the fiscal deficit. Leading BJP figures such as party President Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath may aim to succeed Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi will highly likely relinquish leadership of the main opposition Congress party.

Modi’s party will not yet think of separate Gorkhaland

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
National Register ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tea Industry ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject The movement to create a separate Gorkhaland out of West Bengal state. Significance After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government last month abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status, and divided the state into two union territories, speculation grew that the Modi administration might try to hive off West Bengal state’s Gorkhaland region, currently administered by a semi-autonomous Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA). Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to strengthen its position in West Bengal, currently governed by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). Impacts Agitation in Gorkhaland could set back tourism, a major source of income for the area, and India’s tea industry, a major employer there. The alleged exclusion of 100,000 Gorkhas from Assam state’s National Register of Citizens may hurt the BJP’s image in northern West Bengal. Gorkha politicians who have turned to the BJP may desert the party if higher-level officials continue to prevaricate over Gorkhaland.

India's public health will be an election battleground

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Open Defecation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Party Chief

Subject India's nationwide clean-up campaign. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship ‘Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’ (‘Clean India Mission’) is now in its fifth and final year. While the programme aims to eliminate the country’s culture of open defecation, many Dalits (historically regarded as ‘untouchable’) working as manual scavengers continue to make up for an infrastructure deficit in urban sewerage. Modi will be seeking a second term in the general election, likely in April or May next year, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a tough challenge from rivals including the main opposition Congress party. Impacts The BJP’s election campaign will likely have a strong emphasis on Hindu nationalism. Mayawati, Bahujan Samaj Party chief and a Dalit, will be a key figure in talks about forming a broad anti-BJP alliance for the election. Water shortages could prompt pre-poll protests in several cities across India.

Modi could rely more on Hindu nationalism in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Interest ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Unfair Trade ◽  
Do So

Subject Modi's likely approach to the 2019 elections. Significance India’s general election is likely to occur in April or May 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept to power in May 2014 on promises to transform India’s society and economy. In seeking to preserve his position, Modi has begun to emphasise protectionism and national interest. Impacts India will raise tariff barriers on Chinese goods and may do so on US ones, pushing back on what it regards as unfair trade policies. Low-level political violence between different religious and caste communities is likely in the lead-up to the election. The poll is likely to see contention over the credibility of electronic voting machines.

India’s Naxalite threat is much reduced

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Poll ◽  
The Government

Subject Declining threat of India's Maoists. Significance Some 62 Naxalites -- Maoist rebels -- recently surrendered to security forces in Chhattisgarh, where around 125,000 police and paramilitary troops were deployed to safeguard this week’s first phase of the state elections, which the Naxalites want boycotted. Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month said Naxalites would be eliminated in India within 1-3 years. Impacts The government is unlikely to prioritise land reform in the lead-up to the 2019 general election. Some states are likely to see outbreaks of Hindu-Muslim religious violence ahead of the national poll. Singh will likely remain home minister if Prime Minister Narendra Modi wins a second term.

Modi's stance on religious violence faces major tests

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Religious Violence ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Religious Plurality ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Outlook for communal politics and conflict. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces growing pressure to distance himself from the Hindu nationalist hard-right, with which he has been associated throughout his political career. This pressure has emerged both externally and internally: while US President Barack Obama during his official visit to India underlined the necessity of preserving India's religious plurality, the heavy defeat of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi state elections was seen partly as the electorate's rejection of Hindu nationalism. Impacts Delhi's ties with Dhaka could worsen if election campaigning in Assam results in acute anti-migrant/anti-Muslim violence. A major episode of communal violence would damage India's ties with Middle Eastern and Western partners. Hindu nationalist groups will pose a risk to Modi's policies on land and subsidies.

Modi’s party will not yet seek uniform civil code

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Women ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Marriage Contract ◽  
Personal Law ◽  
Cow Protection

Subject Indian government's efforts to criminalise triple talaq. Significance India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is seeking to outlaw Muslim men’s right to terminate a marriage contract by thrice pronouncing “talaq” (divorce). The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in December mobilised its majority in parliament’s lower house to pass the Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, though the legislation was blocked in the upper house last month. The bill, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi championed personally, is regarded by some as overdue protection for Muslim wives and by others as an attack on Muslim personal law. Impacts The BJP’s Hindu nationalism will help it to win upcoming polls in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and hold power in those states. Elections in states with sizeable Muslim populations are likely to see outbreaks of communal violence ahead of polls. Further attacks on Muslims by cow protection vigilantes are likely.

Modi’s party may be close to power in West Bengal

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) has governed the state for a decade. It faces a tough challenge in the upcoming poll from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Impacts Poll-related violence will likely escalate during the month-long election as rival supporters take to the streets. In the four other elections taking place in March-April, the BJP’s alliance will perform best in Assam and Puducherry. Defeat for the TMC in West Bengal could lead to the party’s disintegration.

Modi’s party will grow stronger in West Bengal

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
New Jobs

Subject The nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's ambitions in West Bengal state. Significance West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee last month issued a fresh challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as she turned attention to the 2021 state election. In the recent general election, the BJP won just four fewer parliamentary seats in West Bengal than Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). Impacts There will be frequent outbreaks of violence between TMC and BJP cadres in West Bengal. Banerjee will encourage external investment in the state and promise new jobs, hoping to appeal to voters. The BJP’s rhetoric over immigration could strain India’s relations with Bangladesh.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

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