Belarus 'reformist' team may lack mandate for change

Significance The meeting is the first since Putin appointed a new ambassador to Minsk with enhanced powers. Lukashenka has meanwhile bolstered his own position by bringing in a new cabinet team, after excoriating outgoing ministers during a visit to a failing town, even though most bore no direct blame. Impacts Without clearer hints of economy policy change, an IMF deal will be unlikely. The sight of more direct Russian economic involvement in Belarus will deter Kyiv from building stronger connections with Minsk. Dissidents and independent journalists are likely to be targeted whenever Lukashenka feels nervous about his position.

Author(s):  
Latha Nagarajan ◽  
Anwar Naseem ◽  
Carl Pray

Purpose Since the start of seed and other market reforms in the 1990s, the annual number of improved varietal releases for maize in Kenya has increased substantially. Prior to the reforms, private firms were restricted in introducing new varieties, could not protect their intellectual property and farmers had to rely exclusively on improved seeds developed and marketed by the public sector. Reforms have resulted in not only private firms entering the market and releasing improved varieties, but also an increase in varietal releases by the public sector. The purpose of this paper is to review some of the key policy reforms related to maize in Kenya, and their impacts on varietal development and yields. Design/methodology/approach The authors estimate a yield model that relates national maize yields to a number of input policy variables. The authors employ a two-stage least square regression, as one of the explanatory variables – the number of varietal releases – is likely endogenous with yield. The authors use policy variables such as public R&D, the number of plant breeder’s rights issued, and the years since private varieties have been introduced as instrument variables to estimate their influence new varietal releases directly, and then new varieties, inputs and other policies to measure their impact on yields. Findings The results show that policy changes such as the introduction of intellectual property rights had an important impact on the number of improved maize varieties released. However, the outcomes of the policy change such as the number of varieties and the share of area under improved varieties has no impact on increasing maize yields. The authors argue that this is because farmers continue to use older improved varieties because of the dominance of a parastatal in the maize, seed market and that newer improved varieties may not have the assumed yield advantage. Future policy and programs should be directed toward increasing the adoption of improved varieties rather than simply releasing them. Originality/value This paper provides evidence that while policy change may lead to new varietal development and release, its aggregate productivity impacts may be limited without additional reforms and intervention.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Bone ◽  
Gary Potter ◽  
Axel Klein

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce the special issue on Illicit Cannabis Cultivation in a Time of Policy Change. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviews some of the different adaptations made by cannabis growers in countries where cannabis has not been legalised. Findings Cannabis growers are adjusting to different legal settings by focusing on home production. Participation in cultivation is a crime, but can also be activism: an effort to change the law. Medical use of cannabis is a particularly important driver here. Having to break the law to alleviate symptoms and treat illnesses provides both a greater sense of urgency and a level of sympathy not usually granted to illicit drug users. Practical implications Grass-roots advocacy may drive policy change. Originality/value This is an original assessment of current state of knowledge on cannabis cultivation in countries where cannabis cultivation remains restricted.


2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marshall L. Stocker

Purpose Crisis events are windows of opportunity during which a country’s leaders may implement economic policy adjustments which change that country’s level of economic freedom and affect the local capital market. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between annual changes in an economic freedom index, six types of crises and equity market returns. Design/methodology/approach The author uses fixed-effects regressions on annual panel data for 69 countries during the period 2000-2010. Findings Banking, domestic debt and inflation crises decrease economic freedom, and an external debt crisis weakly relates to increases in economic freedom. Only banking crises relate to a change in economic freedom in the following year, suggesting that crisis-driven changes in economic freedom happen quickly. Gains in economic freedom are more likely to occur during periods of positive local and global equity returns. Preceding and contemporaneous to increases in economic freedom, a country’s equity market outperforms a global equity index, offering observers a leading indicator for economic policy change. Originality/value The author finds that crises coincide with decreases in economic freedom, while gains in economic freedom happen during periods of positive capital market sentiment. The absence of a relationship between one-year lagged crisis events and changes in economic freedom suggests prior research relating gains in economic freedom to a crisis occurring 5 or 10 years earlier is a relationship which is more complex, non-linear and specific to the selected data period or spurious. Furthermore, relative equity market returns are related to changes in economic freedom, suggesting that equity markets identify which countries have increased economic freedom, long before popular economic freedom indexes are published.


Subject The turbulent political outlook. Significance The opposition Democratic Unity Movement (MUD) has outlined a three-pronged strategy to remove President Nicolas Maduro: a recall referendum, a constitutional amendment and street protests. Meanwhile, Maduro's attempt to focus on domestic economic matters has been derailed by the disappearance and murder of 18 gold miners, with seven still missing, in Tumeremo, Bolivar state. Impacts The MUD's prioritisation of removing Maduro rules out the possibility of negotiated policy change. US policy will roil both the government and opposition. The miners' murder may escalate into national concerns over crime and impunity if not addressed effectively.


Significance Pashinyan promises radical changes at home but continuity in foreign policy after his alliance won a landslide victory in a December 9 parliamentary election that legitimised the revolutionary transition of power he has led this year. Before the street protests that brought Pashinyan to power in May, the Republican Party's ruling position seemed unassailable. Now it has failed to win enough votes to be awarded seats in parliament. Impacts The peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections is a substantial positive step and may set a positive precedent. Pashinyan's alliance has five years of parliamentary dominance to pursue reforms. Moscow and Yerevan will eye one another nervously for months or years, watching for signs of policy change.


Significance The conflict alarmed Tehran, which sent out mixed signals and found its offer of mediation ignored. Senior clerics voiced sympathy for Azerbaijan's cause, but this did not translate into substantive foreign policy change. Impacts After Syria, Azerbaijan becomes a second zone of Iranian rivalry with Turkey and alignment with Russia. Tehran will remain alert to signs of domestic unrest and spillover effects from the conflict zone. There is little likelihood of substantial shifts in Iran's bilateral ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Territorial changes make a longer-term restoration of Armenian-Turkish ties theoretically possible; this would benefit regional trade.


Keyword(s):  

Headline GERMANY: Attacks unlikely to lead to policy change


2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (7) ◽  
pp. 822-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Søren Halkjær ◽  
Rainer Lueg

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze how specialization in hospitals affects operational performance, measured by the length of stay and readmission rate. The authors assess a public policy change in the Danish healthcare sector from 2011 which required that some hospital services had to be centralized leading to specialization within the merged departments. Design/methodology/approach Taking an institutional theory perspective, the authors conduct a natural experiment. The data include 24,694 observations of urological patient treatments from 2010 to 2012. Findings The econometric difference-in-difference analysis finds that the readmission rate decreases by approximately four percentage points in the departments affected by the policy change. Contrary to expectations, the length of stay increases by 0.38 days. The authors complement the natural experiment with a mixed-methods approach that includes proprietary data from the management control system of the hospital, public documentation on the policy change, as well as interviews with key informants. These data suggest that operational deficiency is related to the fact that specialization was externally enforced through the public policy change. The authors illustrate how the hospital staff struggle for legitimacy after this policy change, and how cost savings obstructed the specialized department in achieving its goals. Originality/value The authors conclude that the usual economies-of-scales-based logic of (higher)volume-(better)outcome studies cannot easily be transferred to specialization in hospitals, unless one accounts for the institutional reason of the specialization.


Subject Ukraine's debt. Significance October 29 marked the expiry of the period given by Ukraine to Russia to agree to debt-restructuring terms accepted by all other Eurobond holders two weeks earlier. The latest and supposedly final meeting of creditors with Ukrainian negotiators once again saw no significant progress regarding the restructuring of the 3-billion-dollar Eurobond maturing in December that Moscow demands be repaid in full. Impacts If Ukraine defaults to Russia this will not affect restructuring prospects for other creditors. Issuance terms for new Eurobonds do not envisage the possibility of cross-defaults in case of a default on any old issues. Should Kyiv be forced to pay Russia's Eurobond it will do so out of Ukraine's foreign reserves which total 13 billion dollars.


Headline CZECH REPUBLIC: Policy change must fit migrant change


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