US state governments will circumvent policy gridlock

Significance Over 6,000 state-level officials were elected on November 6. The results matter for state-level policy and the federal-level political conversation it influences, and for the political arithmetic of future elections. Impacts California especially will attempt to create a parallel policy track to that occurring in Washington. The Florida and Arizona Senate races face recounts; these would not change control of the US Congress in 2019. By 2020, pressure is likely to have grown for Puerto Rico and Washington DC to gain greater representation.

Subject Post-default politics in Puerto Rico. Significance While the US federal election will attract most national media attention over the coming months, Puerto Rico's governor, resident commissioner (non-voting representative to the US Congress), bicameral Legislative Assembly and local mayors will also be elected on November 8. Since Puerto Rico defaulted on its public debt in July, the next cohort of public officials will be charged with tackling an exceptionally complex knot of severe policy problems involving the island's finances, public services, pensions and constitutional status. Impacts The legislated requirement to use US-flagged vessels for intra-US shipping under the Jones Act will keep Puerto Rico's import costs high. Partisan rancour at the federal level is likely to complicate nominations for fiscal oversight board appointments. The response to Zika will place significant strain on Puerto Rico's already-weakened public health sector.


Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gibran Cruz-Martinez

This essay aims to briefly collect the historical context of colonialism in Puerto Rico since the Spanish era but primarily focuses on revealing the reasons to consider Puerto Rico as a colony and non-self-governing territory of the US – rather than a neocolony of the US. Later, the article addresses the three non-colonial options recognized by the 1514 United Nations (UN) Resolution and the results of the five referendums on the political status of the Caribbean archipelago held over the last five decades. The essay concludes that Puerto Rico is undoubtedly a colony and asks for the United Nations and the sovereign countries of the world to denounce this illegal colonial relationship that subordinates residents of Puerto Rico to the will of the US Congress where they have no voting representatives.


Significance The missed payment marks the island’s second default of 2017 after missing payments in January. The federal fiscal control board imposed by the US Congress has given the indebted Puerto Rican government until February 28 to formulate new budget proposals for the next two years and a ten-year fiscal plan. The control board also extended a temporary stay on creditor litigation to May 1. Impacts A public health or migration crisis involving Puerto Rico’s US citizens would present the White House with political difficulties. Holders of bonds from the highly indebted US Virgin Islands will watch congressional action on Puerto Rico closely. Cuts to employee benefits and tuition increases at the University of Puerto Rico are likely to spark protests.


Significance Under the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) passed by the US Congress earlier this year, the oversight board can set the island’s fiscal policy independent of the insular government should no agreement be reached. Garcia Padilla will depart office in January and a governor from the pro-statehood New Progressive Party of Puerto Rico (PNP), Ricardo Rossello, will inherit the management of complex federal-commonwealth arrangements and the island’s economic and social crisis, as Puerto Rico restructures over 70 billion dollars in debt. Impacts Republican plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act (‘Obamacare’) would worsen Puerto Rico’s public health crisis. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate lift-off will punish US sub-national borrowers that have thus far avoided difficult spending cuts. Across-the-board US tax cuts, absent special measures, would see potential investors look to the mainland, rather than Puerto Rico.


Significance The Democrats are seeking to revive their party’s fortunes in legislative and electoral battles from the nadir following the political upsets of 2016. As the party seeks to orientate itself towards the administration of President Donald Trump at the federal level, its congressional leaders must balance the centrist considerations of legislative strategy under Republican rule with the expectations of frustrated progressive voters and activists in the party base. The Democrats also face electoral tests in the 2018 midterms and -- more importantly -- when Trump seeks re-election in 2020. Impacts House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is likely to face a post-midterms leadership challenge. More extreme Republican primary challengers backed by Steve Bannon could cost the Republicans otherwise winnable Senate seats. A sizeable contingent of Democratic senators are likely to vote with the 2020 presidential primaries in mind. A conservative Supreme Court ruling allowing partisan gerrymandering in key states will hinder Democratic House gains. Democratic weakness at the state level will have negative electoral and policymaking consequences at federal level.


Significance The campaign was dominated by tensions with the federal government over the border controls instituted by Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan as part of efforts to limit the spread of COVID-19 in the state. These tensions have fed state-level concerns about the increasing reach of the federal government in Canberra. Impacts Labor continues to dominate state governments across the country but remains in opposition at the federal level. States may seek a new revenue model, including the right to levy income taxes. Business groups may side with the states as they push for reforms in their relations with Canberra.


Author(s):  
Matthew D. Thibeault

In this article, I explore John Philip Sousa’s historic resistance to music technology and his belief that sound recordings would negatively impact music education and musical amateurism. I review Sousa’s primary arguments from two 1906 essays and his testimony to the US Congress from the same year, based on the fundamental premise that machines themselves sing or perform, severing the connection between live listener and performer and thus rendering recordings a poor substitute for real music. Sousa coined the phrase “canned music,” and I track engagement with this phrase among the hundreds of newspapers and magazines focused on Sousa’s resistance. To better understand the construction of Sousa’s beliefs, I then review how his rich musical upbringing around the US Marine Band and the theaters of Washington DC lead to his conception of music as a dramatic ritual. And I examine the curious coda of Sousa’s life, during which he recanted his beliefs and conducted his band for radio, finding that in fact these experiences reinforced Sousa’s worries. The discussion considers how Sousa’s ideas can help us better to examine the contemporary shift to digital music by combining Sousa’s ideas with those of Sherry Turkle.


2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 497-512
Author(s):  
Gulcan Onel ◽  
Jaclyn Kropp ◽  
Charles B. Moss

Purpose Over the past four decades, real values of farm real estate and the share of assets on farmers’ balance sheets attributed to farm real estate have increased. The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors that explain the concentration of the US agricultural balance sheet around a particular asset, farm real estate, and the extent to which the degree of asset concentration varies across United States Department of Agriculture production regions. Design/methodology/approach State-level data from 48 states and entropy-based inequality measures are used to examine changes in asset distributions (real estate vs non-real estate assets) both within and between regions over time. Findings The agricultural balance sheet is found to concentrate into real estate in the USA over the period 1960-2003 with the rate of concentration varying across production regions. In some regions, the concentration is mainly due to changes in real estate prices, while in other regions concentration is also driven by changes in real estate holdings or changes in total factor productivity. Originality/value This study formally estimates the degree to which the concentration of balance sheet items can be explained by the observed changes in farm real estate prices relative to observed changes in agricultural factor productivity or changes in farm real estate holdings. The computed regional differences in asset concentration and its main drivers have implications for changes in equity and solvency positions of farmers as well as agricultural lenders’ risk exposure.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1173-1189
Author(s):  
Karen Ann Craig ◽  
Brandy Hadley

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the political cost hypothesis and the effects of political sensitivity-induced governance in the US bond market by using yield spreads from bonds issued by a diverse sample of US government contractors. Design/methodology/approach Fixed effects regression analysis is used to test the relation between the political sensitivity of government contractor firms and their cost of debt. Findings Results illustrated that government contractors with greater political sensitivity are associated with larger yield spreads, indicating that bondholders require a premium when firms endure the costs of increased political oversight and the threat of outside intervention, reducing the certainty of future income. However, despite the overall positive impact of political sensitivity on bond yield spreads on average, the authors found that the additional government oversight is associated with lower spreads when the firm is facing greater repayment risk. Practical implications Despite the benefits of winning a government contract, this paper identifies a direct financial cost of increased political sensitivity because of additional firm oversight and potential intervention. Importantly, it also finds that this governance is valued by bondholders when faced with increased risk. Firms must balance their desire for government receipts with the costs and benefits of dependence on those expenditures. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature in its exploration of political sensitivity as an important determinant of the cost of debt for corporate government contractors. Specifically, the authors document a significant risk premium in bond pricing because of the joint effects of the visibility and importance of government contracts to the firm.


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