Policy doubts will keep Turkish assets under strain

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Global Growth

Subject The relief rally in Turkish assets. Significance The lira has risen despite the continued strength of the dollar, suggesting that Turkey’s tighter monetary and fiscal policy is paying dividends. However, these policies have also brought about a sharp economic adjustment, causing output to contract on a quarterly basis in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a premature loosening of policy ahead of local elections in March. Impacts Plunging oil prices will help suppress inflation rates in advanced and emerging economies but raise concerns that global growth is slowing. Investors will become increasingly concerned about the health of the global economy and the risk of a Fed policy mistake. Retail investors will remain risk-averse, as EM bond and equity funds continue to suffer outflows.

Prospects for the global economy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy to end-2016. Significance Global growth could accelerate in the second half of 2016. Some emerging economies are facing better conditions thanks to the weaker dollar and some rebound in commodity prices, while others remain in recession. US growth slowed in the first quarter, while Japan's government just avoided a relapse into recession. Euro-area growth is robust compared to its recent trends, but cannot be relied upon to provide much support for the rest of the global economy.

Determinants of stock market reaction to cross-border acquisitions: evidence from emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samta Jain ◽  
Smita Kashiramka ◽  
P. K. Jain
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Acquiring Firms

PurposeThe global economy has witnessed an exponential increase in cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) by emerging market companies (EMCs), demanding a relook at their internationalization strategy. The purpose of the study is to investigate whether the announcement of CBAs by EMCs creates value for the equity-holders of acquiring firms and identify factors affecting the valuation of acquiring companies.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates the announcement impact of CBAs of CNX Nifty 500 Indian and SSE 380 Chinese companies. The event study analysis of 553 Indian and 125 Chinese acquisitions supports the contention that CBAs are indeed a strategic choice of EMCs for value creation.FindingsCBAs generate positive and statistically significant abnormal returns for shareholders of both Indian and Chinese acquirers. The markets, however, differ in terms of their motivations; country-level factors have been observed to exert significant influence on the returns of Indian acquirers. Indian companies experience larger value creation on acquiring firms established in developed, institutionally closer and/or economically distant markets. The findings support the asset-seeking motive of Indian companies.Originality/valueThe research work contributes to the evolving stream of CBAs literature with a focus on the globalization strategies of EMCs. The present study is a modest attempt to lay the foundation for a new theoretical framework (asset-seeking perspective) of overseas acquisitions from emerging economies. The existing studies on emerging economies have emphasized, in isolation, either Indian CBAs or international acquisitions by Chinese firms. Being so, the study is unique and original in the sense that it is a comparative study of India and China.

Global rebalancing to support sustainable growth

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Low Energy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
Global Growth

Significance Risks to its central scenario are more balanced and less skewed to the downside. Global imbalances are shrinking, partly thanks to low oil prices. This is boosting disposable income in oil-importing countries at the expense of oil-exporting ones. The dollar's strength is also helping rebalance the global economy, although the euro-area's growing current account surplus is contentious. Impacts Disinflation has become widespread, especially within advanced economies, but should be temporary. Low energy prices are estimated to add between 0.5-1.0 percentage points to global growth by 2016. A revision of guidelines and rules is required to reduce the risk of another financial crisis.

Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Of China ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Global Growth ◽  
China’S Economy

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the fourth quarter. Significance Three threats are on the horizon. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates this year. This move, though well signalled, may have negative repercussions, especially in emerging markets (EMs). Secondly, China's economy, a key to global growth, is slowing and its financial markets are exceptionally volatile. These factors have already elicited policy interventions such as renminbi depreciation and further rate cuts by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Finally, there is no apparent end in sight to weak global demand and the fall in commodities prices that has left commodity-exporting countries struggling with precipitous drops in revenue.

Prospects for the global economy in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy in the second quarter. Significance Heightened geopolitical risk undermines the potential for any short-term strengthening of world economic activity. In the second quarter, global growth should be similar to that experienced in early 2015. Over the first half of this year, it will remain in the 3.0-3.5% range, similar to the 2014 growth rate of 3.3%. Many countries remain vulnerable to international tensions: there will be no early recovery in the commodity-producing economies of the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, or in Eastern Europe.

Prospects for the global economy in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy in 2016. Significance Adverse trends visible across many regions at end-2015 suggest that global growth will stay subdued in 2016. Leading international institutions forecast an upturn in activity, but also emphasise obstacles and risks ahead. They encourage efforts to support growth prospects. However, little has been done so far regarding infrastructure investment, structural reforms and other pro-growth policies except for the ECB considering a boost to its quantitative easing (QE) programme.

Reflation trade benefits Central Europe’s currencies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Significant Deterioration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Current Account Balances

Subject The outlook for the koruna, forint, zloty and leu. Significance Although emerging market (EM) bond and equity funds suffered heavy outflows in the week to February 14, the Czech koruna has barely budged against the dollar and the euro, after rallying sharply over the past few months. The Polish zloty and Hungarian forint have also remained stable, after enjoying sharp gains versus both currencies. The Romanian leu remains under pressure, owing partly to a significant deterioration in the country’s fiscal and current account balances. Impacts The surge in volatility in global markets in early February is abating partly because of strong economic and corporate fundamentals. Also, the global economy is enjoying its strongest synchronised expansion since 2010. The dollar will remain under significant strain despite the tightening of US monetary policy, with the dollar index at a three-year low. German business confidence, at a record high in January, is buoying sentiment across the euro-area and within export-dependent CE.

What will the “Eyes and Ears” of the SEC choose to see and hear this year? OCIE announces examination priorities for 2015

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-29
Author(s):  
Kenneth Berman ◽  
Michael P. Harrell ◽  
Gregory Larkin
Keyword(s):  
Private Equity ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Equity Fund ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Private Equity Funds ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Analyze Data

Purpose – To discuss and interpret the recently published summary of the select priorities of the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (“OCIE”) in connection with the National Exam Program for 2015. Design/methodology/approach – This article highlights the broad OCIE focus areas and provides detail on the associated initiatives. Findings – OCIE’s priorities appear to place particular emphasis on retail investors and investors saving for retirement and market-wide risks, including cybersecurity. The examination priorities also emphasize OCIE’s evolving ability to analyze data to identify and examine registrants that may be engaged in illegal activity. Of particular interest to private equity fund sponsors, the National Exam Program will continue to conduct examinations that focus on fees and expenses borne by investors in private equity funds. Practical implications – In view of the OCIE’s priorities, recent public comments by OCIE officials (concerning, for example, presentation of performance data) and our experience representing private equity firms being examined by OCIE, private equity fund sponsors should continue to be prepared for rigorous examinations on these issues and the areas of focus highlighted by the SEC in the past three years. Originality/value – The article summarizes the OCIE’s recently published examination priorities for 2015 that cover a broad range of market participants and target a variety of their products, practices and procedures, including a continued focus on private equity fund sponsors.

ECB will decide Central Europe’s turn from rate rises

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Car Industry ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Inflation Rates ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
China’S Economy

Significance Pressure is mounting on the ECB to justify its withdrawal of monetary stimulus, following a sharp fall in German industrial activity in November that has increased the risk of Europe’s largest economy slipping into recession in the final quarter of 2018. The downturn across the euro-area, which is dragging down inflation rates and government bond yields, is starting to dampen growth in Central Europe. Impacts The euro-area economy’s outlook has dimmed, with Germany’s ten-year government bond yield plumbing its lowest level since April 2017. The open Hungarian and Czech economies are most at risk from a euro-area slowdown, since the weakness is concentrated in the car industry. However, sentiment towards emerging market bond and equity funds has improved despite a global growth scare centred around China’s economy.

Prospects for the global economy in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
To Come ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Prospects for the global economy in 2019. Significance Rising interest rates, unfavourable trade conditions and, in some cases, adverse demographics and tightening labour markets will dampen global growth in 2019. The outlook is dull at best and could herald worse to come in 2020.

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