Indonesia’s elections will prompt more Papua unrest

Subject Situation in Papua province. Significance Papua province is under increasing scrutiny ahead of Indonesia’s elections in April. An attack by separatist rebels early last month resulted in deaths of security personnel and civilians. President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s government later in the month finalised a deal to assume a controlling stake in the province’s economically important Grasberg mine. Impacts Anti-government political violence is unlikely to diminish Jokowi’s substantial support in Papua or West Papua province. Violence at current levels will have little impact on mining operations or industrial food estates in Papua. Greater pressure on pro-independence Papuan activists, such as mass arrests, could lead to increased militancy and radicalisation. Papua will receive further international scrutiny during Indonesia’s campaign to become a member of the UN Human Rights Council.

Subject Recent uptick in protests in Papua. Significance Security in restive Papua and West Papua provinces has deteriorated in the last seven weeks amid two waves of violent protests. Despite President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s new willingness to meet with Papuan pro-independence leaders, the government lacks a strategy for reducing tensions. Impacts Jakarta may be somewhat distracted from the Papua situation by student protests over anti-corruption reforms and a proposed new penal code. Violence in Papua could harm Indonesia’s chances of gaining a seat on the UN Human Rights Council next week. Despite the unrest, Canberra is unlikely to hesitate in ratifying an Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.


Significance The attacks come on the back of a general uptick in violence by the terrorist group both in north-east Nigeria and across its borders. The renewed violence suggests that even in its current degraded and divided state, Boko Haram’s various factions retain the capacity to hurt civilians and security personnel in north-eastern Nigeria and disrupt crucial humanitarian efforts. Impacts Renewed violence in north-eastern Nigeria will hamper the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance and government resettlement efforts. Despite current divisions, growing military successes by Boko Haram’s competing factions could potentially facilitate closer coordination. Growing terror attacks could reduce the impetus for the military to address human rights concerns or decommission local vigilante groups.


Significance Separately, his administration on February 11 announced a sanctions regime to pressure the Myanmar military to reverse the recent coup. It has also instigated a return to membership of the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council, which the former US administration left in 2018. Impacts A values-based foreign policy will connect with Congress, where there is support for human rights and democracy promotion. Biden will exacerbate some political tensions over Israel as he increases US participation in international human rights foruns. Under international law, the designation of China’s treatment of Muslim Uighurs as genocide would require action from Washington.


Significance The crisis in the predominantly anglophone Northwest and Southwest regions has escalated in recent months, with a heightened security crackdown on pro-independence demonstrators resulting in civilian deaths. This has prompted a spike in violence by more radical separatist groups -- such as the Ambazonia Governing Council (AGC), which advocates a separate 'Southern Cameroons' or 'Ambazonia' anglophone state -- and the deaths of several security personnel. Impacts While Biya could invoke extraordinary measures, he is unlikely to postpone the 2018 elections and risk tainting his continued tenure. International arrest warrants issued by the government against key separatist leaders are unlikely to be acted upon by Western partners. The government's heavy-handed response will increase international scrutiny of the regime's tactics and alleged human rights abuses.


Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2018. Significance The United States yesterday withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council, the latest in a series of foreign policy moves this year shaking up the international order.


Significance The legislation additionally introduces certain changes to the provinces’ governance that ostensibly promise to improve local socio-economic conditions. However, many Papuans say these were made without consultation and do little to address their problems. Impacts The Indonesian government will step up deployment of security personnel to Papua and West Papua. Insurgents will continue to target state infrastructure in the provinces. Jakarta will come under growing external scrutiny over its handling of peaceful protests in the region.


2008 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-175
Author(s):  
Maire Leadbeater

Indonesia is trying to build an international reputation as a nascent democracy and is proud of having been re-elected in 2007 to the United Nations Human Rights Council for a three-year term. But the problems in West Papua make this democratic reform story questionable. While Indonesiakeeps this troubled province off limits to foreign journaluists and human rights investigators, Indonesia’s human rights credibility should be critically examined. Indonesia’s incorporation of West Papua has been contested ever since it took control in 1963. West Papua’s fate was sealed by a 1969 ‘Act of Free Choice’ which is known as the ‘Act of No Choice’ by the Papuans, since it was carried out under extreme duress and only 1022 men were allowed to vote (Saltford, 2003). The province remains heavily militarised and opposition to Indonesia’s rule persists.


2019 ◽  
pp. 247-265
Author(s):  
Lucie Hanzlíčková ◽  
Irena Melounová ◽  
Štěpánka Zemanová

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