Boko Haram will pose renewed threat to Nigeria’s army

Significance The attacks come on the back of a general uptick in violence by the terrorist group both in north-east Nigeria and across its borders. The renewed violence suggests that even in its current degraded and divided state, Boko Haram’s various factions retain the capacity to hurt civilians and security personnel in north-eastern Nigeria and disrupt crucial humanitarian efforts. Impacts Renewed violence in north-eastern Nigeria will hamper the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance and government resettlement efforts. Despite current divisions, growing military successes by Boko Haram’s competing factions could potentially facilitate closer coordination. Growing terror attacks could reduce the impetus for the military to address human rights concerns or decommission local vigilante groups.

Significance Delivery of relief to 8.5 million people in north-eastern Nigeria is complicated by persistent insecurity due to the Boko Haram insurgency, the dependency of the aid community on military cooperation for access, alleged corruption and mismanagement by government agents and contractors, an uncertain domestic political situation and ambiguity about mid-term funding from international sources. These challenges have led to an enduring humanitarian disaster and the possibility of reversals on the regional security front. Impacts Political uncertainty due to President Muhammadu Buhari’s poor health will hamper national efforts on the humanitarian front. An unimproved humanitarian situation will complicate the military’s counter-insurgency campaign, and harm long-term security efforts. Ongoing corruption revelations, particularly within the military, could undermine security sector and federal executive relations. Renewed Niger Delta militancy and pro-Biafra separatism could distract the federal government's attention from the north-east.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


2021 ◽  
pp. e001696
Author(s):  
Chris M A Kwaja ◽  
D J Olivieri ◽  
S Boland ◽  
P C Henwood ◽  
B Card ◽  
...  

IntroductionCivilian–military relations play an important yet under-researched role in low-income and middle-income country epidemic response. One crucial component of civilian–military relations is defining the role of the military. This paper evaluates the role of Nigerian military during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola epidemic.MethodsFocus groups and key informant interviews were conducted throughout three states in North East region of Nigeria: Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. Participants were identified through mapping of stakeholder involvement in Nigerian epidemic response. English-translated transcripts of each key informant interview and focus group discussion were then coded and key themes were elucidated and analysed.ResultsMajor themes elucidated include developing inclusive coordination plans between civilian and military entities, facilitating human rights reporting mechanisms and distributing military resources more equitably across geographical catchment areas. The Nigerian Military served numerous functions: 37% (22/59) of respondents indicated ‘security/peace’ as the military’s primary function, while 42% (25/59) cited health services. Variations across geographic settings were also noted: 35% (7/20) of participants in Borno stated the military primarily provided transportation, while 73% (11/15) in Adamawa and 29% (7/24) in Yobe listed health services.ConclusionsRobust civilian–military relations require an appropriately defined role of the military and clear civilian–military communication. Important considerations to contextualise civilian–military relations include military cultural–linguistic understanding, human rights promotion, and community-based needs assessments; such foci can facilitate the military’s understanding of community norms and civilian cooperation with military aims. In turn, more robust civilian–military relations can promote overall epidemic response and reduce the global burden of disease.


2022 ◽  
pp. 76-91
Author(s):  
Isaac Terungwa Terwase ◽  
Muhammad Yusuf ◽  
Abubakar Sambo Mohammed ◽  
Safwan Mikaila Sani

The Boko Haram conflict started in Nigeria from a city in the north-eastern part of the country known as Maiduguri in 2009 during the administration of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua. It was a new thing to Nigeria considering the fact that the country was yet to witness terrorism and its activities. Boko Haram later continued after the death of President Yar'Adua, and they became stronger during the President Jonathan's administration. Boko Haram later transformed from an insurgent group into a terrorist group where they spread from Nigeria to other parts of African countries such as Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. This has it effects, impacts, and consequences on trade in Africa. The objective of this chapter is to draw the impact of terrorism on trade with specific attention to Nigeria and Chad.


Africa ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Higazi ◽  
Jimam Lar

ABSTRACTNorth-east Nigeria is an area of great ethno-linguistic diversity and religious pluralism, with Islam and Christianity both having a strong presence. The majority of the population is Muslim but there is also a substantial indigenous Christian minority, who form a majority in some local government areas. This paper draws on fieldwork by the authors in two north-eastern states, Bauchi and Gombe, to explore why, despite comparable religious demographics, there are marked differences in the levels of collective violence experienced in the two states. Although ethno-religious violence has increased across northern Nigeria since the 1980s, some areas have been more affected than others. To understand why this is, it is necessary to place ethnic and religious differences in their local historical and political contexts. This paper compares Gombe and Bauchi and argues that, although there are complaints of marginalization among different groups in both cases, Gombe State has developed a more inclusive system of government and local conflict management than Bauchi State. We explore what accounts for this difference in the articulation and management of belonging and whether the contrast is significant enough to explain differential levels of violence. In doing so, we consider how inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations have been shaped historically in the two cases and compare current forms of collective mobilization, considering different social and political spaces within each state. The paper also briefly outlines the impacts of the radical insurgent group Jama'at ahl al-sunna li'l-da'wa wa'l-jihad, nicknamed Boko Haram, in Bauchi and Gombe states.


Significance Mass protests took place yesterday in Niger's capital against the insurgency, while Chad's military announced training exercises with the United States to "warm up" for the fight. Over the past year, Boko Haram militants have encroached from north-east Nigeria into remote border areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The regionalisation of the insurgency and the response will see the intensity and impact of the conflict increase. Impacts Population displacements could become a significant problem, bringing added instability risks to the border region. The risk of attacks on international aid organisation personnel will grow as they seek to deliver aid to affected communities. The conflict will not yet impinge on oil operations in Chad and Niger; existing fields and infrastructure are not close to affected areas.


Significance Boko Haram has been severely weakened by the regional military offensive underway since February. With some assistance from Nigerian soldiers, troops from Chad, Cameroon and Niger have forced the insurgents to retreat from the majority of areas under their control. Completing the defeat of Boko Haram -- at least as a guerrilla force -- will be one of the incoming administration's first priorities. Impacts The incoming government will seek to fund pledges to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation of the north-east. However, it is set to inherit a cash-strapped economy, after one of Nigeria's most expensive elections. As laid out by the respected Borno state governor, substantial international aid assistance will be required. Such reconstruction work will also be important to allow the return of tens of thousands of refugees.


Significance Attacks by Boko Haram’s two factions pose the greatest immediate danger, but insecurity from banditry in Zamfara and Sokoto states and inter-communal conflicts across much of the north-central ‘Middle Belt’ could impinge on the elections and after. Impacts An over-extended military and partisan political divisions will hamper the development of a coordinated counterinsurgency response. Journalists and human rights groups could face a growing clampdown over critical reporting on the military. Ethnic and religious-inspired Middle Belt clashes risk disrupting polling in rural areas and fuelling worsening cycles of reprisal violence.


Subject Bangladesh's narcotics crackdown. Significance Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is overseeing a ‘drug war’, with security personnel targeting illegal trade in yaba (methamphetamines). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has criticised the campaign, in which an estimated 150 people have been killed and at least 13,000 arrested since mid-May. The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to retain power in the general election, due by late December. Impacts The yaba trade will worsen social conditions in Rohingya refugee camps. India’s north-east could face an increasing problem of yaba trafficking. Bangladesh’s election campaign is likely to involve widespread use of undeclared money.


Subject Kidal's significance. Significance In mid-February, the government deployed 600 soldiers and auxiliary forces to the far north-eastern city of Kidal and 200 more to Timbuktu, another key northern city. There are also plans to deploy troops to Menaka and Taoudenit. All these towns have been under the de facto control of shifting constellations of rebels, former rebels and militias since April 2012. The return of the military as part of a ‘reconstituted army’ consisting of one-third government soldiers, one-third former rebel fighters and one-third government-aligned militia members indicates a softening of tensions. Impacts The Kidal deployment may blunt some Western criticism of the Malian government’s performance. Legislative elections in March and talks with jihadists could yet change political balances in Kidal. Relations between the government and former rebels in the north are better now than in years. The Algiers Accord’s different provisions are so interconnected that the success of any one depends on agreement on multiple other elements.


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