Indonesia risks worsening Papuan discontent

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Target State ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
West Papua ◽  
State Infrastructure ◽  
External Scrutiny

Significance The legislation additionally introduces certain changes to the provinces’ governance that ostensibly promise to improve local socio-economic conditions. However, many Papuans say these were made without consultation and do little to address their problems. Impacts The Indonesian government will step up deployment of security personnel to Papua and West Papua. Insurgents will continue to target state infrastructure in the provinces. Jakarta will come under growing external scrutiny over its handling of peaceful protests in the region.

Indonesia’s elections will prompt more Papua unrest

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Political Violence ◽  
Mining Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Council ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
West Papua

Subject Situation in Papua province. Significance Papua province is under increasing scrutiny ahead of Indonesia’s elections in April. An attack by separatist rebels early last month resulted in deaths of security personnel and civilians. President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s government later in the month finalised a deal to assume a controlling stake in the province’s economically important Grasberg mine. Impacts Anti-government political violence is unlikely to diminish Jokowi’s substantial support in Papua or West Papua province. Violence at current levels will have little impact on mining operations or industrial food estates in Papua. Greater pressure on pro-independence Papuan activists, such as mass arrests, could lead to increased militancy and radicalisation. Papua will receive further international scrutiny during Indonesia’s campaign to become a member of the UN Human Rights Council.

Israel fears Iranian encroachment via Syria

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Buffer Zone ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Target State ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The Face ◽  
State Infrastructure

Significance The Israeli security establishment is worried that border arrangements established during the Syrian war may erode. It sees the Syrian Golan Heights as of great strategic importance, fearing their retaking by the Damascus regime would allow an Iranian presence on its border through proxies such as Lebanese Hezbollah. Impacts Israel’s cross-border deterrent strikes will increasingly risk Syrian retaliation and Moscow's displeasure. Any major Hezbollah terrorist attack or cross-border operation from the Golan Heights could provoke a new Israeli offensive in Lebanon. The next Israeli assault on Lebanon would likely target state infrastructure as well as Hezbollah positions, raising the stakes. Tensions over the Syrian Golan Heights, as well as an Iranian proxy presence, will test Moscow's relationship with Jerusalem and Tehran. As a last resort in the face of a cross-border threat, Israel could seek to establish a risky buffer zone in the area.

Key military appointment shores up Jokowi’s stability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Mandatory Retirement ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Intelligence Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Personnel

Significance Andika is the son-in-law of AM Hendropriyono, a retired general and former head of the State Intelligence Agency who is an influential adviser to Jokowi. Andika's appointment will run to December 2022, when he will reach the mandatory retirement age of 58. Impacts Deployment of security personnel to Papua will increase. Jokowi will continue to rely heavily on Hendropriyono’s advice. As with Andika’s appointment, political calculations will be key in Jokowi’s next pick as TNI chief.

Even if politicians deal, Lebanon faces a bleak future

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Financial Strain ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Food Shortages

Significance The audit and wider structural economic reforms are preconditions for urgently needed foreign aid. Economic conditions in Lebanon are still worsening, with power cuts, food shortages and rising poverty. Impacts A new government would allow reform planning to resume and temporarily stall the decline of the currency. The easing of the global pandemic will somewhat reduce the financial strain, as Lebanon reopens its economy. Soaring poverty rates could provoke large-scale ‘bread riots’ in the coming months. Further devaluation of the currency will make poor Lebanese more dependent on sectarian protection and strengthen patronage. If the situation worsens, sectarian rural areas could revert to warlordism in the medium term.

scholarly journals The performance of corporate bond issuers in times of financial crisis: empirical evidence from Latin America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Berninger ◽  
Bruno Fiesenig ◽  
Dirk Schiereck
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Decisions ◽  
Theoretical Approaches

PurposeThe fundamental theory of Modigliani and Miller (1958) states that a firm's financing decisions are independent from the firm's value. Nevertheless, several empirical studies as well as theoretical approaches from the past decade impugn this relation for real markets with their immanent inefficiencies. However, these questions are rather than academic in nature: Especially the influence of macroeconomic conditions on the market perception of debt issues is from high economic importance, since the need for new liquidity usually becomes even more urgent when the economic conditions worsen.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the reaction of shareholders to the issue of debt by Latin American firms under special consideration of the macroeconomic sentiment. To do so, a sample of debt issued by Latin American companies between 2003 and 2010 is empirically examined through an event study.FindingsThe authors empirically demonstrate that specifically in Latin America, debt issuing companies show a significant underperformance during recessionary periods and an overperformance during nonrecessionary periods. These findings differ from previous results for mature capital markets. The authors conclude that not only the overall economic conditions matter to explain stock market reactions on bond issues but also the maturity of the corporate debt market plays an important role.Originality/valueThe authors provide first evidence that the previously described changes in the returns on specific stocks depending on the economic sentiment (Baker and Wurgler, 2006) are under certain conditions also present in the market for corporate debt.

scholarly journals An analysis of Indonesian government policies against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Roziqin ◽  
Syasya Y.F. Mas’udi ◽  
Iradhad T. Sihidi
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Narrative Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
Safety Net ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Social Restriction ◽  
The Government

PurposeCOVID-19 cases in Indonesia continue to increase and spread. This article aims to analyse the Indonesian government policies as a response in dealing with COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachThis article is a narrative analysis with the approach of a systematic literature review.FindingsThis article found that the Indonesian government responded slowly to the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of its spread in March 2020. The government then issued some policies such as physical distancing, large-scale social restriction (PSBB - Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar) and social safety net. These policies will only work if the society follows them. The society could be the key to success of those policies, either as the support or the obstacles.Practical implicationsThis policy analysis with literature review, conducted from March to July 2020 in Indonesia, provides experiences and knowledge in how to respond to the dynamic problems of public policy in dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, especially in the context of a developing country.Originality/valueThe novelty of the article lies in the unique policy response in a diverse society. It suggests that the policymakers should pay more attention to the society’s characteristics as well as the mitigation system as a preventive measure and risk management to make clear policy in the society.

Converging crime rates among European countries? A note

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 524-534
Author(s):  
Christos Kollias ◽  
Theodosia Leventi ◽  
Petros Messis
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Traits ◽  
Convergence Process ◽  
Unemployment And Crime ◽  
Empirical Methodology

Purpose Social change and modernization theories postulate that as countries grow they gradually move toward a condition of similarity in various spheres exhibiting similar economic and social traits. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a process of convergence in terms of criminality levels is present in the case of European countries. Design/methodology/approach The research question at hand is tackled through conventional s and ß-convergence methodologies and a battery of unit root tests in the case of 16 European countries over the period 1972-2012. Findings The findings reported, herein, are quite uniform irrespective of the empirical methodology employed to investigate the issue at hand. The result points to a process of convergence in terms of crime rates. However, this convergence process, although present and statistically traceable, is a rather gradual one as this is depicted both by the value of the β-coefficient as well as by the trend of the coefficient of variation. Originality/value Most of the studies in this strand of the literature focus on investigating the association between economic conditions such as unemployment and crime or on the effectiveness of crime thwarting policies. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first paper that addresses the issue of convergence in terms of crime rates in the case of European countries.

Is CSR reporting always favorable?

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (7) ◽  
pp. 1506-1525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bilal Al-Dah ◽  
Mustafa Dah ◽  
Mohammad Jizi
Keyword(s):  
Profit Maximization ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Outside Directors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Accounting Performance ◽  
Moderating Variables ◽  
Csr Reporting ◽  
High Participation ◽  
Csr Disclosure ◽  
Macroeconomic Environment

Purpose In addition to their profit maximization objective, firms are often challenged to meet environmental and social demands. The purpose of this paper is to test whether a firm’s macroeconomic environment moderates the efficiency of its social and environmental disclosures. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the Bloomberg database to collect data on the FTSE 350 listed firms for the years 2007-2012. The sample is split into crisis and post-crisis periods, to study the investor reaction to social disclosures under different economic conditions. Findings The results suggest that the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosure on future firm performance depends on the surrounding macroeconomic environment. During tight economic situations, market participants become more self-centered and penalize firms diverting scarce resources toward non-profitable societal engagements. Moreover, the findings indicate that firms with a high participation of outside directors and low accounting profit experience negative future performance when engaging in social disclosures during times of crisis. Practical implications Corporate governance is a system of interconnected practices that is affected by various firm and environmental characteristics. The results are in line with the premise that, depending on macroeconomic changes and specific firm attributes, CSR reporting may have dissimilar implications across different situations and conditions. Social disclosures and engagements are not always favorable, and should only be utilized in non-recessionary periods by firms possessing certain characteristics in terms of board composition and accounting profitability. Originality/value This study identifies key moderating variables which present additional obstacles for firms engaging in CSR during adverse economic conditions. Outsiders’ inferior firm-specific expertise, along with the firm’s poor accounting performance, present additional financial constraints for firms engaging in CSR activities during economic downturns.

Sensor cooperative scheduling method for low-altitude maneuvering target tracking in complex environment

Sensor Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunpu Zhang ◽  
Gongguo Xu ◽  
Ganlin Shan
Keyword(s):  
Target Tracking ◽  
Sensor Scheduling ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Complex Environment ◽  
Tracking Accuracy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Target State ◽  
Maneuvering Targets ◽  
Scheduling Method ◽  
Low Altitude

Purpose Continuous and stable tracking of the low-altitude maneuvering targets is usually difficult due to terrain occlusion and Doppler blind zone (DBZ). This paper aims to present a non-myopic scheduling method of multiple radar sensors for tracking the low-altitude maneuvering targets. In this scheduling problem, the best sensors are systematically selected to observe targets for getting the best tracking accuracy under maintaining the low intercepted probability of a multi-sensor system. Design/methodology/approach First, the sensor scheduling process is formulated within the partially observable Markov decision process framework. Second, the interacting multiple model algorithm and the cubature Kalman filter algorithm are combined to estimate the target state, and the DBZ information is applied to estimate the target state when the measurement information is missing. Then, an approximate method based on a cubature sampling strategy is put forward to calculate the future expected objective of the multi-step scheduling process. Furthermore, an improved quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO) algorithm is presented to solve the sensor scheduling action quickly. Optimization problem, an improved QPSO algorithm is presented to solve the sensor scheduling action quickly. Findings Compared with the traditional scheduling methods, the proposed method can maintain higher target tracking accuracy with a low intercepted probability. And the proposed target state estimation method in DBZ has better tracking performance. Originality/value In this paper, DBZ, sensor intercepted probability and complex terrain environment are considered in sensor scheduling, which has good practical application in a complex environment.

Residential property market determinants: evidence from the 2018 Australian market downturn

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 157-175
Author(s):  
Peng Yew Wong ◽  
Woon-Weng Wong ◽  
Kwabena Mintah
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Residential Market ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to validate and uncover the key determinants revolving around the Australian residential market downturn towards the 2020s. Design/methodology/approach Applying well-established time series econometric methods over a decade of data set provided by Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia and Real Capital Analytics, the significant and emerging drivers impacting the Australian residential property market performance are explored. Findings Besides changes in the significant levels of some key traditional market drivers, housing market capital liquidity and cross-border investment fund were found to significantly impact the Australian residential property market between 2017 and 2019. The presence of some major positive economic conditions such as low interest rate, sustainable employment and population growth was perceived inadequate to uplift the Australian residential property market. The Australian housing market has performed negatively during this period mainly due to diminishing capital liquidity, excess housing supplies and retreating foreign investors. Practical implications A better understanding of the leading and emerging determinants of the residential property market will assist the policy makers to make sound decisions and effective policy changes based on the latest development in the Australian housing market. The results also provide a meaningful path for future property investments and investigations that explore country-specific effects through a comparative analysis. Originality/value The housing market determinants examined in this study revolve around the wider economic conditions in Australia that are not new. However, the coalesce analysis on the statistical results and the current housing market trends revealed some distinguishing characteristics and developments towards the 2020s Australian residential property market downturn.

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