Somali oil and gas potential faces institutional gaps

Subject Somalia's oil ambitions. Significance In February, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) launched a licensing round for 15 offshore energy blocks at a conference in London. Somalia’s oil potential is significant -- some estimates suggest around 100 billion barrels of oil waiting to be discovered -- but serious institutional hurdles stand in the way. Impacts Trust between the FGS and regional administrations will erode further if the FGS continues unilaterally to market energy blocks. Signs that security may be worsening rather than improving may curb investor curiosity. Kenya’s recent steps to revamp the regulatory environment and formalise revenue-sharing make it a more attractive investment prospect.

Subject Alberta's climate policy. Significance Alberta's recently announced climate policy marks a sharp reversal of the regulatory environment, after years of energy-friendly provincial governments in Edmonton. Alberta Premier Rachel Notley's emissions reduction plan signals a robust policy shift for the province, with sectoral, national and international knock-on effects. Impacts Albertan energy producers will seek to exchange their support of the climate plan for government support of midstream projects. The Alberta government may forgo a significant increase in oil and gas royalty rates to retain investment in the oil sands. Alberta's health services may see job-loss-related strains, such as increased rates of mental health problems, suicide and substance abuse.


Significance The signings come after the government revised a regulation issued earlier this year that in effect made renewable energy uncompetitive. This year, a series of regulation and policy reversals governing Indonesia’s energy and mining sectors have revealed an unstable regulatory environment, with a negative effect on foreign investment. Impacts Weak demand at oil and gas block auctions will put pressure on Jakarta to revise “gross split” production contracts further. Despite regulatory revisions for individual sectors, regulatory inconsistency will further dampen the investment climate. A cabinet reshuffle is likely soon. Regulatory controversies could dent Widodo’s policy credibility ahead of the 2018 regional and 2019 national elections.


Subject Equatorial Guinea energy prospects. Significance With the US market buying less of its gas, Equatorial Guinea’s government is trying to revive its ailing economy and international status by finding new energy markets within Africa. Several events are planned next year showcasing the country’s oil and gas potential, and ambitions as a regional energy hub. However, questions over the likely successor to 76-year-old President Teodoro Obiang cloud the picture. Impacts Should Teodorin Obiang succeed his father, he could remove his popular brother from the oil ministry. New oil entrants must consider the risk of regime change resulting in more resource-nationalist policies from a new president. Barring an uprising or coup, the ruling Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea is likely to dominate politics for the foreseeable future.


Subject Outlook for Sarawak and Sabah states. Significance The Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) alliance, which governs in Sarawak state, supports the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, which earlier this month displaced the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition from the federal government upon the appointment of Muhyiddin Yassin as prime minister. The Warisan party, which governs in Sabah state, had supported the PH in the federal parliament. Impacts Steep declines in global oil prices will have a negative impact on state economies in eastern Malaysia. The GPS will seek a greater role for the state-owned Petros in Sarawak’s oil and gas sector. Sarawak expanding control over its oil and gas sector would increase pressure on Sabah to do likewise.


Significance In 2015 the economic downturn and the electoral calendar undermined provincial finances. The outlook is no better for 2016, forcing provincial governors to seek fresh funds. In this context, the discussion of a new revenue-sharing regime between the federal and provincial governments has re-emerged. Impacts Provincial adjustment measures would put governability at risk; convergence to fiscal balance is expected to be gradual. Governors will exploit their relative political strength to get financial aid from the federal government. Though reform of the revenue-sharing scheme is politically difficult, there is room to reduce discretionary bias in other federal transfers.


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