Prospects for US politics to end-2019

Subject Prospects for US politics to end-2019. Significance As President Donald Trump continues his commemorative visit to Europe today, back home in Washington speculation is growing fast over whether congressional Democrats will impeach him and whether they can unseat him in 2020. Serious policymaking hurdles also await attention, including raising the country’s debt ceiling and spending caps in time for the new fiscal year on October 1.

Subject US public accounting oversight and proposed reforms. Significance Earlier this month, President Donald Trump released his budget proposal for the 2021 fiscal year. Among the proposals is merging the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) into the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) beginning in 2022. The move would further weaken US securities law and the accounting framework, which has steadily eroded in recent years. Impacts Shifting oversight over audit quality to the SEC would greatly reduce resources available for this function. House Democrats will be reluctant to give Trump legislative victories before November. Under Trump, the SEC will further shrink its enforcement activities; this process began before he became president.


Significance With an election due soon, the governing Liberal-National Coalition’s pledge to ring-fence the defence spending commitments made in 2016 was under some pressure. However, defence spending in fiscal year 2021/22 will grow by over 4% in real terms and stay above the symbolic level of 2% of GDP. Impacts Growing popular and bipartisan concern with Chinese aggression is a conducive environment for increased defence spending. Low interest rates and a stronger Australian dollar are also supporting sustained levels of defence expenditure. Washington may increase pressure on Australia to conduct freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. Major business groups are concerned that increased criticism of China in national politics will produce yet more punitive backlash.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Fernández-Villarino ◽  
J. Andrés Domínguez-Gómez

PurposeThis study aims to explore how responsible corporate behaviour, specifically self-imposed financial regulatory control, might subsequently be reflected in the financial performance of companies subject to such regulation.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors aim to explore how financial compliance in the form of the Economic Control Regulation (ECR) has impacted on the financial performance of professional football clubs in Spain. To this purpose, the authors adopted a quasi-experimental before and after study design. This type of design assesses the object of study before and after a specific event in order to determine whether this event has had any effects on the object. In this case, the event was the coming into effect of the ECR in the fiscal year of 2012, and the object hypothetically affected was the clubs’ economic performance.FindingsThe authors can confirm that in general terms and for the whole set of clubs analysed, the ECR has had a strong and positive effect on financial performance.Research limitations/implicationsIn this study, the authors wish to establish a link between the idea of “compliance” and that of “responsible corporate management practice”. It is not just a matter of compliance with the law. The fact of complying with certain laws could, in general terms, or from the point of view of common sense, be qualified as “responsible behaviour”. However, under the contemporary concept of corporate responsibility, compliance with the law is a behaviour that must be taken for granted. Responsibility, therefore, would entail going beyond such expected behaviour to one that exceeds the environment's expectation of the corporate actor.Practical implicationsWhat extent improvements in financial performance have also boosted social performance. Confirming such a positive effect endorses the argument that ethical improvements in corporate culture have a general effect on business sustainability in its different aspects: economic, social, environmental and in governance.Social implicationsThe authors may foresee that the culture of compliance will spread from the finance departments to other management areas. Its connection with ethical business practice is directly linked to the more complex concept of the “citizen company”. There are suggest interesting bases on which professional football clubs might move from a traditional profit-oriented company model towards a more contemporary one oriented towards relationships of integrity with the sport's environment. This study shows that the ECR has been a starting point for the development of Spanish professional football clubs towards this type of “citizen company”.Originality/valueIt was a single-sector study whose principal value lies in the verification of whether responsible economic management (the main consequence of applying the ECR) had any effects on company profits, financial results and other important indicators. In addition to fostering responsibility, this new management model involves a special innovation, as it is based on self-regulation (i.e. on regulations not imposed by national or supranational states), designed and implemented to ensure the sector's viability.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyi Qin ◽  
Jun Cai ◽  
Steven Wei

PurposeIn this paper, we aim to answer two questions. First, whether firms manipulate reported earnings via pension assumptions when facing mandatory contributions. Second, whether firms alter their earnings management behavior when the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) mandates disclosure of pension asset composition and a description of investment strategy under SFAS 132R.Design/methodology/approachOur basic approach is to run linear regressions of firm-year assumed returns on the log of pension sensitivity measures, controlling for current and lagged actual returns from pension assets, fiscal year dummies and industry dummies. The larger the pension sensitivity ratios, the stronger the effects from inflated ERRs on reported earnings. We confirm the early results that the regression slopes are positive and highly significant. We construct an indicator variable DMC to capture the mandatory contributions firms face and another indicator variable D132R to capture the effect of SFAS 132R. DMC takes the value of one for fiscal years during which an acquisition takes place and zero otherwise. D132R takes the value of one for fiscal years after December 15, 2003 and zero otherwise.FindingsOur sample covers the period from June 1992 to December 2017. Our key results are as follows. The estimated coefficient (t-statistic) on DMC is 0.308 (6.87). Firms facing mandatory contributions tend to set ERRs at an average 0.308% higher. The estimated coefficient (t-statistic) on D132R is −2.190 (−13.70). The new disclosure requirement under SFAS 132R constrains all firms to set ERRs at an average 2.190% lower. The estimate (t-statistic) on the interactive term DMA×D132R is −0.237 (−3.29). When mandatory contributions happen during the post-SFAS 132R period, firms tend to set ERRs at 0.237% lower than they would do otherwise in the pre-SFAS 132R period.Originality/valueWhen firms face mandatory contributions, typically firm experience negative stock market returns. We examine whether managers manage earnings to mitigate such negative impact. We find that firms inflate assumed returns on pension assets to boost their reported earnings when facing mandatory contributions. We also find that managers alter earnings management behavior, in the case of mandatory contributions, following the introduction of new pension disclosure standards under SFAS 132R that become effective on December 15, 2003. Under the new SFAS 132R requirement, firms need to disclose asset allocation and describe investment strategies. This imposes restrictions on managers' discretion in making ERR assumptions, since now the composition of pension assets is a key determinant of the assumed expected rate of return on pension assets. Firms need to justify their ERRs with their asset allocations.


Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.


Headline UNITED STATES: Trump shows command of his party


Significance The cost of gas-fired generation sets the electricity price in much of Europe today. Falling indigenous production has left Europe reliant on gas imports and exposed it to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices set by fast-recovering China. This has left retail-only electricity suppliers vulnerable and increases the risk that falling disposable incomes will undermine post-pandemic recovery. Impacts EU carbon allowance prices will stay strong. Higher energy prices will stoke inflation amid a fragile recovery, posing a dilemma for central banks. Rising gas prices have had ancillary but potentially alarming impacts as some fertiliser and CO2 producers have shut in production.


Significance However, the departure of former US President Donald Trump -- who was an enthusiastic supporter of Brexit and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson -- has made this harder to achieve. Impacts Johnson will consider holding a snap election in 2023 to capitalise on the successful vaccination campaign and economic reopening. The failure to conclude a US-UK FTA would increase the prospects of an EU-UK veterinary agreement. Without a UK-EU veterinary agreement, the chances of persistent disruption on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland will grow.


2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan Kelly ◽  
Shihwe Wang ◽  
Robert Rosenheck

Purpose Veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have high lifetime rates of smoking and often have substantial difficulty quitting. However, relatively little research has focussed on the use of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) intensive tobacco cessation counseling services by veterans with PTSD and the characteristics of veterans with PTSD who do and do not use these services. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach The present study is an analysis of national VHA administrative data fiscal year 2012 that identified utilization rates of VHA intensive tobacco cessation counseling among veterans with diagnoses of both PTSD and tobacco use disorder (TUD) (N=144,990) and the correlates of tobacco cessation counseling use. Findings Altogether, 7,921 veterans with PTSD diagnosed with TUD used VHA tobacco cessation services (5.5 percent). Veterans with PTSD who used tobacco cessation counseling services were more likely to have been homeless, to have a comorbid drug use disorder, and had used other VHA services more frequently than their counterparts who did not access tobacco cessation counseling. The use of outpatient mental health and substance use services was the strongest correlate of tobacco cessation counseling use by veterans in this sample. Notably, veterans with PTSD, TUD and HIV were more likely to engage in tobacco cessation services. Originality/value This study demonstrates that future efforts should focus on increasing provider and veteran awareness of and accessibility to VHA intensive tobacco cessation counseling for veterans with PTSD.


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