Iran’s hopes of swift economic recovery will be dashed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader

Significance His government is in an impasse with the conservative parliament over the draft budget for the new fiscal year beginning on March 21. Rouhani needs the US sanctions to be lifted fast and a COVID-19 vaccination campaign to allow for an exit from the pandemic in order to meet his economic promises. Impacts The supreme leader will become even more closely involved in shaping economic policy, with the autarkic ‘resistance’ narrative dominant. Khamenei may seek a new ‘jihadi manager’ president, linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC), who follows his economic vision. Progress with vaccinations, which began on February 8, will likely be slow, as supplies have become highly politicised.

Tehran will weigh options to contain plane protests

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
High Level ◽  
Dispute Resolution Mechanism

Significance The authorities’ belated admission of the error, on January 11, sparked new waves of student-led protests across several cities, with outspoken slogans targeting the supreme leader and Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). These coincide with heightened external tensions over the continued fallout from the US killing of senior IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani and European countries’ decision yesterday to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism of the 2015 nuclear deal over Iran’s violations. Impacts The incident will play into February parliamentary polls, but if it reduces turnout it could paradoxically help conservatives. With splits emerging between the president and military, further clumsy mishandling of the investigation could revive public anger. If the crisis becomes more serious, high-level resignations could follow.

Mosul will test US efforts to rebuild Iraqi army

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Department Of Defense ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
And Training

Subject US Iraqi Train and Equip Fund. Significance The US Department of Defense has requested an additional 630 million dollars for the Iraqi Train and Equip Fund (ITEF) in the 2016-17 fiscal year. This fund, hurriedly brought into existence in the summer of 2014, was developed to provide assistance and training to the Iraqi army in the wake of its disastrous performance against Islamic State group (ISG) forces. Forces trained under the ITEF will be a key component of the planned offensive to retake the ISG stronghold of Mosul later this year. Impacts The programme is unlikely to continue once Mosul has been retaken -- although other funding streams will continue. Its success would strengthen the Iraqi army, thereby empowering central government against pro-Iran, hardline militias. Its failure would strengthen these militias and increase the prospects of a semi-permanent fragmentation of the Iraqi state.

Iran will struggle to create a ‘resistance economy’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Supreme Leader

Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.

ECB QE and growth may obscure Polish political risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inconclusive Result ◽  
The Us

Significance Having fallen against the resurgent dollar this year, the zloty has lately been strengthening, since the US Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by striking a more dovish stance than expected on both the timing and pace of the anticipated tightening in monetary policy. While the zloty and Polish stocks had suffered because of fears of a rise in US interest rates, local bonds have been underpinned by the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) programme. The effects of QE and a brisker economic recovery may temporarily offset the risk of an inconclusive result in the parliamentary election in October. Impacts Investors have yet to price in the risk of a hung parliament in Poland following October's election. The vote could lead to the formation of a weak and unstable coalition government. The risk of an unstable coalition is particularly high, given the strong likelihood that PO's share of the vote will decline sharply.

Puerto Rican budget and statehood wrangles will worsen

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Foreign Investor ◽  
Control Board ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Us

Significance Fiscal pressures are causing controversy in Puerto Rico, but so too is fiscal policy-making. On July 5, Governor Ricardo Rossello announced that he would seek a court injunction that would prevent the budget he has signed from being disallowed in favour of the nearly 9-billion-dollar budget devised by the US-based federal fiscal control board. Impacts Domestic and foreign investor confidence in Puerto Rico is likely to fall further, complicating economic recovery and reform. The episode will further damage Puerto Rican politicians’ credibility when they make representations to Washington. The polarisation over Puerto Rico’s long-term future, and the US statehood question, will deepen. Delays in repairing the island’s economy, and then reforming it for the future, could see worker outflows.

Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions may grow with time

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Supreme Leader ◽  
Ultimate Purpose

Subject The goals of North Korea's nuclear programme. Significance The pace of North Korea's nuclear weapons programme has accelerated significantly under its third and current supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, but Pyongyang provides little clarity about its ultimate purpose and what level of capability it considers adequate. Impacts Nuclear blackmail has a poor record of success, but that may not prevent Pyongyang from trying. Pyongyang may continue developing its nuclear capabilities even after it has demonstrated the ability to hit the US mainland. The risk of conflict will rise if Seoul and Washington decide that Pyongyang's aim is not defensive.

A new US-Iran war will play out in Iraq and beyond

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
External Action ◽  
Personal Networks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Islamic Revolution ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
The Us

Significance The operation, authorised by US President Donald Trump, killed Qassem Soleimani, longstanding chief of the Quds Force -- the external action wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). Others also died, notably Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which had been targeted in earlier US strikes. Impacts Baghdad’s parliament will consider a bill to evict the US military presence. The confrontation with Iran will undermine efforts to combat the residual Islamic State presence. As the responses play out, oil prices are likely to rise further. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal could at last collapse. Damascus may increase its dependence on Moscow in the absence of Soleimani’s personal networks.

scholarly journals Panama Canal vs alternative routes: estimating a logit model for grains

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-120
Author(s):  
Javier Daniel Ho ◽  
Paul Bernal
Keyword(s):  
Logit Model ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Panama Canal ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Traffic Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Intelligence ◽  
Cape Of Good Hope ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Routes

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to fit a logit model for dry bulkers transporting grains through the Panama Canal versus alternative routes destined to East Asia, originating on the US Gulf and East Coast. This is with the purpose of better understanding the attributes. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, grain transits both through the Panama Canal and alternative routes, which are examined, and a logit model is developed to explain the route decision from a carrier/vessel operator point of view. Findings Transit draft is the most important attribute in the route decision process for grains according to this study. Also, Panamax bulkers are the preferred vessel size into China, especially through the Cape of Good Hope route, impacting Panama Canal’s market share for grains. Research limitations/implications This research used only a full year of grain traffic data approximating fiscal year 2018 (October 1, 2017 to September 30, 2018). Data will come mostly from the Panama Canal transit data and observations using IHS’s Market Intelligence Network (MINT). Originality/value This paper is highly dependent on visual observations of grains vessels through alternative routes using AIS data from MINT software.

Guatemala anti-corruption protests will endure

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Increased Pressure

Significance The move, which follows a series of contentious judicial appointments earlier in the year, has heightened concern over the state’s commitment to addressing corruption. President Alejandro Giammattei’s government is set to experience increased pressure domestically and from the US government, which has prioritised tackling corruption in its engagement with Central America. Impacts Protests will disrupt business activity nationwide, further weighing on Guatemala’s post-pandemic economic recovery. Investigations into spending during the pandemic have the potential to spark further unrest. The US curtailment of cooperation with Guatemala raises risks of similar action against Honduras, which has comparable corruption issues.

Dynamic frequency relationships between bitcoin, oil, gold and economic policy uncertainty index

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samah Hazgui ◽  
Saber Sebai ◽  
Walid Mensi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multiple Frequencies

Purpose This paper aims to examine the frequency of co-movements and asymmetric dependencies between bitcoin (BTC), gold, Brent crude oil and the US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a wavelet approach and a quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) method. Findings The results show a positive interdependence between BTC and commodity price returns at both medium and low frequencies over the sample period. In contrast, the dependence is negative between BTC and EPU index at both medium and low frequencies. Furthermore, the co-movements between markets are more pronounced during crises. The results show that strategic commodities and EPU index have the ability to predict BTC price returns at both medium- and long-terms. The QQR method reveals that higher gold returns tend to predict higher/lower BTC returns when the market is in a bullish/bearish state. Moreover, lower gold returns tend to predict lower (higher) BTC returns when the market is in a bearish (bullish) state (positive (negative) relationship). The lower Brent returns tend to predict higher/lower BTC returns when the market is in a bullish/bearish state. High Brent quantiles tend to predict the lower BTC returns in its extremely bearish states. Finally, higher and lower EPU changes tend to predict lower and higher BTC returns when the market is in a bearish/bullish state (negative relationship). Originality/value There is generally a lack of understanding of the linkages between BTC, gold, oil and uncertainty index across multiple frequencies. This is, as far as the authors know, the first attempt to apply both the wavelet approach and a QQR method to examine the multiscale linkages among markets under study. The findings should encourage the relevant policymakers to consider these co-movements which vary over time and in duration when setting up regulations that deem to enhance the market efficiency.

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