Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2019. Significance President Donald Trump will return to Washington today after a ceremonial and commemorative visit to the United Kingdom, Ireland and France this week. The visit went off largely without incident, and in that sense it was successful. However, for the remainder of 2019, the Trump administration will grapple with various foreign policy challenges after some setbacks this year. That will matter electorally, since Trump is already campaigning for 2020 and his administration's agenda frequently fuses foreign and domestic policy.

Brexit impact on UK-US ties will hinge on new leaders

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Data Transfer ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Position ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK 'Brexit' referendum's impact on US foreign policy. Significance President Barack Obama lobbied hard for the United Kingdom to remain in the EU, citing the need for a strong and trusted US partner within the organisation. The referendum results in favour of leaving ('Brexit') are clearly a setback that could curtail long-standing US economic, political and security interests in Europe. Impacts The United Kingdom may seek to use the upcoming NATO summit to regain some international stature following the Brexit vote. Brexit will complicate UK-US as well as EU-UK data transfer arrangements. Some Republicans' pro-Brexit positions are more likely to reflect political manoeuvring against the White House than a firm policy position.

Religion’s role in US foreign policy to grow

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
Religion And Politics ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Religious Persecution ◽  
Muslim Countries ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance Any Trump-Rouhani meeting would undoubtedly involve discussion of religion and politics, since these issues have set both governments at odds since the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979. This is important, since the nature of the influence that religion is having on US foreign policy is changing under Trump’s administration. The administration has often downplayed the role of ‘values’ (understood to be the promotion of democracy and human rights) in foreign policy. Now, religious freedom is emerging as a values framework. Religion is also used more frequently to justify the administration’s policies towards complicated issues including Iran and Syria, and counterterrorism. Impacts Defense Secretary James Mattis would likely oppose any attempt at regime change in Iran. Emphasising religious freedom will play well to pro-evangelical voters, likely most benefitting Republicans. The administration will increase funding for anti-genocide and anti-religious-persecution measures. Perceptions that the Trump administration is ‘anti-Muslim’ could constrain it advancing foreign policy in Muslim countries. US sanctions could be imposed on religious grounds, which could affect US and other investors.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

Member states will drive EU foreign policy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Foreign Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
National Defence ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, member states have the dominant foreign policy role in the EU. After Brexit, that will be France and Germany despite the United Kingdom insisting that it wants to maintain as close a relationship with the EU as possible. Impacts EU reformers will light on foreign policy as an area to drive forwarded integration. However, the EEAS lacks the competencies and institutional horsepower to be a force for integration. The strategic needs of the 27 post-Brexit EU members will be various, thus acting as a drag on integration. Smaller EU member states will see more advantage than larger ones in collectively pursuing foreign policy goals through Brussels. Larger member states will be unwilling to submit their national defence policies to greater EU authority.

EU integration will be restricted post-Brexit

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU direction post-Brexit. Significance Some Europhiles believe that the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU removes a veto-wielding disruptor, thereby enabling the EU to achieve deeper political and economic integration. However, opposition to integration will remain strong, with former UK policy allies in the EU now looking to occupy the ground left by the United Kingdom. Impacts German-French hopes to create European champion firms to bolster EU competition will strengthen following Brexit. The relative weight in the EU of countries opposed to using sanctions as a foreign policy tool, such as Italy and Hungary, will now grow. Future defence and security initiatives could be established outside EU structures in order to accommodate the United Kingdom.

London will diverge from the EU on foreign policy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
The Political ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Uk Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK foreign policy. Significance Last week the EU and United Kingdom published their negotiating objectives for the future relationship. The European Commission’s negotiating mandate largely reflects the Political Declaration, including a desire for close formal cooperation in defence, security and foreign policy. The United Kingdom’s objectives indicate that it wants less formal cooperation as it seeks to de-institutionalise its relationship with the bloc. Impacts The economic impact of Brexit could cut the size of the UK defence budget, which has already fallen more than 10% in real terms since 2010. The absence of formal channels of EU-UK cooperation and coordination could result in a weakening of the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia.  The re-election of US President Donald Trump would herald a further four years of transatlantic tensions.

Biden’s US foreign policy agenda is emerging

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending

Significance Biden and Republican President Donald Trump, seeking re-election, are already sparring over US-China policy; this and other differences over foreign policy will mark the candidates’ campaigning. Impacts Biden would reduce US tariffs on China, favouring more targeted tariffs, but still push for Chinese economic reform. He would increase US attention to the Asia-Pacific, and work with China on North Korean denuclearisation. The next president will likely have to trim US defence spending and commitments overseas. Biden will refer to the Obama administration’s record as evidence of his fitness to govern.

Impeachment leaves untimely leadership vacuum in Seoul

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Support Rate

Significance Park is already a lame duck with barely a year left to serve and her public support rate is just 5%. Her authority is irretrievably lost, but she refuses to resign. The uncertainty and ferment that have paralysed government in Seoul for weeks will therefore continue for several months. Impacts In a first-past-the-post system, deep divisions may prevent the opposition from capturing the presidency, despite its ostensible advantage. The consensus behind the West's hard line on Pyongyang could collapse if South Korea's next president favours outreach, as looks likely. Economic problems will gradually worsen in the absence of strong leadership capable of tackling tough issues. Paralysis in Seoul will prevent effective responses to changes to US foreign policy when Donald Trump takes office as president.

Japan's foreign policy caution will not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.

Brexit will pose dilemmas for UK constitution

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Corporate Tax ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Constitutional System ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit and the UK constitution. Significance After Brexit, the United Kingdom will move from a protected constitutional system, established by EU treaties, to one dominated by the sovereignty of Parliament. Such an unprotected system is difficult to reconcile with the protection of rights and with devolution. Impacts There will likely be entrenched division over the prospect of a codified constitution and what it includes. The United Kingdom should remain in a close and strategic foreign-policy relationship with the EU. There will be pressure from free-market Conservative MPs to lower tariffs and deregulate personal and corporate tax to encourage business.

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