Impeachment leaves untimely leadership vacuum in Seoul

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Support Rate

Significance Park is already a lame duck with barely a year left to serve and her public support rate is just 5%. Her authority is irretrievably lost, but she refuses to resign. The uncertainty and ferment that have paralysed government in Seoul for weeks will therefore continue for several months. Impacts In a first-past-the-post system, deep divisions may prevent the opposition from capturing the presidency, despite its ostensible advantage. The consensus behind the West's hard line on Pyongyang could collapse if South Korea's next president favours outreach, as looks likely. Economic problems will gradually worsen in the absence of strong leadership capable of tackling tough issues. Paralysis in Seoul will prevent effective responses to changes to US foreign policy when Donald Trump takes office as president.

US foreign policy will go right after Tillerson

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Deputy Director ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance President Donald Trump said he dismissed Tillerson as he wants his cabinet to be more in line with his thinking; Trump and Tillerson had clashed over policies and priorities. CIA Director Mike Pompeo will be nominated to succeed Tillerson. The nominee to replace Pompeo at the CIA will be current CIA Deputy Director Gina Haspel. Impacts A better-coordinated foreign policy team could help Trump prepare for his new push on North Korea-US ties. Pompeo may find as secretary of state that he disagrees more openly with Trump; the CIA director is not public-facing. Conceivably, the 2018 midterm elections could further delay Trump nominees, but secretaries could work in an acting capacity.

Biden’s US foreign policy agenda is emerging

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending

Significance Biden and Republican President Donald Trump, seeking re-election, are already sparring over US-China policy; this and other differences over foreign policy will mark the candidates’ campaigning. Impacts Biden would reduce US tariffs on China, favouring more targeted tariffs, but still push for Chinese economic reform. He would increase US attention to the Asia-Pacific, and work with China on North Korean denuclearisation. The next president will likely have to trim US defence spending and commitments overseas. Biden will refer to the Obama administration’s record as evidence of his fitness to govern.

Trump values reshape US foreign human rights agenda

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Future Thinking ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range

Significance The report is intended to guide future thinking on human rights in US foreign policy and to emphasise a global battle for values versus China and Russia. It also has a clear electoral aspect, as the selected rights will appeal to religious conservatives and strict constructionists in the legal sector, two groups that President Donald Trump will rely on as he seeks re-election this November. Impacts A Democratic president would discard the Commission on Unalienable Rights and the report. A Democratic president would focus on a wide range of ‘new’ human rights areas. The report will curtail Trump's scope to downplay rights disputes with Russia and China.

Ukraine will seek a louder voice in adverse conditions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Green Light ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Phone Call ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Adverse Conditions ◽  
Pipeline Project ◽  
Nord Stream

Significance Just as Zelensky's July 2019 phone call with then President Donald Trump was fading from memory, Biden's green light for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, in a deal with Germany, has undermined Ukraine's confidence in both countries. Kyiv is now seeking to make its own voice heard and assert its rights as a significant player rather than a pawn in international affairs. Impacts Kyiv will present the Biden summit as an achievement, whatever the outcome, although this is unlikely to affect Zelensky's ratings. The opposition will place the blame for Nord Stream 2 squarely on the Zelensky administration. Biden's decisions on Afghanistan will increase Ukrainian worries about US foreign policy commitments.

Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Foreign Governments

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2017. Significance During his first months in office, President Donald Trump has generated significant uncertainty about US alliance commitments, participation within international institutions and foreign governments’ standing in Washington. However, many of his subordinates at the cabinet and sub-cabinet level have attempted to normalise the Trump administration’s foreign policy positions to assuage allies’ nervousness, but have proved subject to presidential contradiction on multiple occasions.

Declining multilateralism could damage Germany’s image

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
German Foreign Policy ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
German Politics ◽  
The Eu

Subject German foreign policy. Significance The global economic downturn caused by the escalating COVID-19 pandemic strikes Germany in an already precarious phase. Declining multilateralism, particularly resulting from Brexit and US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, is threatening to undermine the structures that have been responsible for Germany’s modern security and economic successes. It could also accentuate Germany’s power, which would raise concerns across the EU of ‘German dominance’. Impacts Reluctant cooperation among member states in upcoming EU decisions will make Berlin more forceful in asserting its national interests. Due to increasing political fragmentation, German politics will become more domestically focused. The strong likelihood of future coalition governments will ensure that German foreign policy does not undergo a significant reorientation.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2019. Significance In 2019, President Donald Trump will work to advance the foreign policy initiatives he started in 2017-18, including on Iran, North Korea and China.

New sanctions will return US-Russia ties to old ire

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Policy Tool

Significance The White House has indicated that President Donald Trump will sign the legislation authorising the new measures, despite the fact it limits presidential discretion to waive the sanctions as an instrument of US foreign policy. Congress overwhelmingly voted in favour of the bill, which expands sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Russia. Impacts Mulled US plans to provide arms to Ukraine would spur a more hostile line from Moscow towards Trump if carried out. There are few voices in Washington advocating an activist approach to European firms’ minor dealings with Russia. The bill’s focus on past grievances, rather than clear changes in behaviour sought, will hinder its effectiveness as a policy tool.

Trump's US foreign policy narrative turns to 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
National Security ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Religious Freedom ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Difficult Time

Significance The news comes at a difficult time for President Donald Trump: he needs foreign policy wins to contribute to his chances of re-election in November 2020, and he has invested political capital in improving ties with North Korea. Moreover, foreign policy related controversies have seen Trump put under formal impeachment investigation. Impacts Trump will likely take a less hawkish tone towards Iran and North Korea with the departure of John Bolton as national security adviser. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s foreign policy influence will grow, provided he maintains the president’s favour. The administration will renew its push to emphasise religious freedom as a foreign policy objective. If the impeachment investigations turn up damaging evidence, Trump will have to divert more time to fighting allegations.

Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy to end-2019. Significance President Donald Trump will return to Washington today after a ceremonial and commemorative visit to the United Kingdom, Ireland and France this week. The visit went off largely without incident, and in that sense it was successful. However, for the remainder of 2019, the Trump administration will grapple with various foreign policy challenges after some setbacks this year. That will matter electorally, since Trump is already campaigning for 2020 and his administration's agenda frequently fuses foreign and domestic policy.

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