Australia’s energy mix will fuel overseas disputes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The UN summit will follow Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s refusal to reduce Australia’s fossil fuels reliance during talks with Pacific leaders in Tuvalu this month. Impacts Australian domestic concerns will dictate emission policies, even at the risk of harming Pacific relations. Renewables will dominate the long-term electricity fuel mix, but coal is still needed to maintain output. Australian public opposition will hinder potential investment in nuclear power.

Australian fires may destabilise prime minister

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decisive Action ◽  
Climate Disasters ◽  
Change Mitigation

Significance The bushfires will wipe billions of dollars off 2020 economic growth and could push Australia’s economy into deficit in this quarter. Insurance claims already exceed 700 million dollars (417 million US dollars). Impacts With climate disasters likely to become more intense, long-term investment will be needed to protect communities. Damage to Australia’s image will hurt tourism and intensify pressure for decisive action on emissions. Labor and the Greens could benefit from the coalition’s political difficulties and stance on climate change. The coalition will approach climate change mitigation as an economic issue, partly to avoid party splits. Fossil fuels’ economic importance means the Liberals will not change energy policies right away.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

LNG use will be crucial to nations’ energy transitions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Net Zero

Significance LNG is cleaner than most fossil fuels but still incompatible with net zero emissions. India, China and other Asian economies see LNG imports as a ready and economically viable means of displacing coal and oil use. Natural gas and then LNG demand will eventually peak as the energy transition accelerates over the next 20 years. Impacts LNG market growth will embed fossil fuel use and infrastructure in developing economies’ energy mixes. Recent market volatility and record spot LNG prices may reverse the trend of greater reliance on spot transactions than long-term contracts. Although the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of LNG use in transport are far from clear, it will gain market share in the next few years. LNG project developers will seek to cut GHG emissions from their projects to prolong LNG's attractiveness in the energy transition.

Sirisena win spells change and challenge for Sri Lanka

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Potential Game ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Game Changer

Significance Sirisena's victory is a potential game-changer: instead of entrenching the autocratic tendencies of his predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration, the election results hold out the promise of democratic consolidation under a new government with a robust mandate for constitutional and policy reform. However, the diversity of the coalition backing Sirisena and the sharing of power with newly appointed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe augur a period of volatility. Impacts If Tamil parties emerge as 'kingmakers' in April, governance of war-torn Northern and Western provinces is likely to be overhauled. Delhi, Washington and Brussels will welcome the political transition. Long-term growth prospects will turn on the precise rebalancing of budgetary allocations.

UK support for Hinkley Point is likely to continue

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power Station ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Power Station ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk

Subject The project to build a new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point. Significance Reports that construction of the planned nuclear power station at Hinkley Point may be postponed will raise further concerns about the project's prospects as well as the long-term direction of the UK electricity sector. The reports follow weeks of debate in the United Kingdom and France over whether construction should go ahead and over further delays in the final investment decision on the project (now scheduled for May). Impacts Depending on how the French government decides to support EDF, approval by the European Commission may be needed. The Austrian government has legally challenged the Commission's approval of UK plans to support the project. The UK government's existing plans for maintaining electricity supply -- the so-called 'capacity auctions' -- may need to be revisited.

French trade union rivalry is likely to intensify

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Movement ◽  
Trade Union ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject French trade unions. Significance French trade unions have found themselves at the centre of a continuing and powerful social movement against the labour reform proposed by the government under President Francois Hollande and Prime Minister Manuel Valls. However, the strong opposition is not just driven by the content of the reform but also by the power struggle among trade unions which are now split into 'reformist' and 'non-reformist' camps. Impacts The division between trade unions is likely to lead to a radicalisation of the non-reformist unions with violent strikes continuing. The government will be held responsible for the lock-down, which will weaken Hollande's re-election bid further. The labour reform dispute could relegitimise non-reformist trade unions in the long term, complicating future reform attempts.

US pressures may overshadow Canada's innovation budget

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporation Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regulatory Convergence

Significance The government tabled its budget at the end of March, announcing major investments in skills development, innovation, the environment and infrastructure. The budget aims to strengthen the long-term growth potential of the Canadian economy. However, more immediate economic challenges are likely to occupy the administration of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over the remaining three years of its electoral mandate. Impacts Washington's free-market and protectionist push will hinder regulatory convergence with Canada. A likely cut to US corporation tax could erode Canada's competitive advantages. NAFTA negotiations are more likely to focus on technical tweaks to procurement and rules of origin than dramatic overhaul of its structure.

Iran could sunder Hungary-Israel illiberal alliance

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Small Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
United Front ◽  
The Eu

Subject Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s visit to Jerusalem. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's July 18-20 visit to Jerusalem invited a great deal of controversy, largely related to his approach to Hungary’s interwar history and erosion of democratic institutions. An ideological affinity and common strategic interests support a warm long-term relationship. Impacts Following the examples of Austria, Poland and Hungary, other CE countries will strengthen their relationship with Israel. Common positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will become increasingly difficult to forge at international forums, including the EU. The profiles of small-country leaders with an illiberal outlook will rise as they show a united front on more issues.

Future of China-UK engagement lies in Beijing’s hands

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Educational Partnerships ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Large Numbers

Significance Prime Minister Boris Johnson talks of a “calibrated” China policy that combines toughness in particular areas with continued engagement in others. Impacts Migration of Hongkongers to the United Kingdom in large numbers would invigorate anti-Beijing activism. Chinese investments in UK nuclear power are unlikely to proceed as planned. Beijing’s extraterritorial attempts to suppress dissent in the United Kingdom will intensify. Universities and researchers should expect a push for government-mandated reviews of UK-China research and educational partnerships. Beijing may target particular firms or economic sectors to ‘punish’ London, but most bilateral trade will continue.

Saudi Aramco signals fresh momentum behind IPO plans

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Minority Shareholders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Original Plan ◽  
Dominant State ◽  
Market Capitalisation

Significance Reports last month that Aramco had selected Lazard for a contract to work as adviser on the IPO breathed new life into a deal that has been marking time since mid-2018. Prospective investors have also been encouraged by Aramco’s recent announcement of interim results, marking a further development in public disclosure following the successful 12-billion-dollar bond issue in April. The original plan was to offer a 5% stake to generate 100 billion dollars for the Public Investment Fund (PIF), based on a 2-trillion-dollar valuation. Impacts The new advisory team may recommend modifying the planned IPO terms, especially given Aramco’s acquisition of 70% of SABIC. The IPO will give Aramco an opportunity to elaborate further its long-term strategy to adapt to the global shift away from fossil fuels. A listing of Aramco’s shares would boost Saudi market capitalisation and attract additional investment inflows. The interests of new minority shareholders and the dominant state shareholder could diverge, including over dividend policy.

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