LNG use will be crucial to nations’ energy transitions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Net Zero

Significance LNG is cleaner than most fossil fuels but still incompatible with net zero emissions. India, China and other Asian economies see LNG imports as a ready and economically viable means of displacing coal and oil use. Natural gas and then LNG demand will eventually peak as the energy transition accelerates over the next 20 years. Impacts LNG market growth will embed fossil fuel use and infrastructure in developing economies’ energy mixes. Recent market volatility and record spot LNG prices may reverse the trend of greater reliance on spot transactions than long-term contracts. Although the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of LNG use in transport are far from clear, it will gain market share in the next few years. LNG project developers will seek to cut GHG emissions from their projects to prolong LNG's attractiveness in the energy transition.

scholarly journals Does Resource Abundance Require Special Approaches to Climate Policies? The Case of Russia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Makarov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Structural Differences ◽  
Global Movement

Abstract As the world’s largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Consequently, Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and use instruments of climate policies which are utilized in energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia’s emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuels energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future.

Emissions in different stages of economic development in nations

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amulya Gurtu ◽  
Anandajit Goswami
Keyword(s):  
Development Policy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Green Technologies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainable Technologies ◽  
Development Trajectory

PurposeThis paper analyzed country-wise energy consumption, sources of emissions, and how it gets impacted by their socioeconomic development and provides a framework for integrated climate and development policy.Design/methodology/approachAn analysis of energy supply, consumption and emissions across developed and developing economies using long-term empirical data.FindingsThe framework provided areas to be focused on reducing emissions during the economic and social development trajectory of nations.Research limitations/implicationsIt provides a holistic and integrated picture of the context of emissions that induced global warming and developmental challenges for different types of countries.Practical implicationsAll nations must reduce fossil fuel consumption to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to keep the planet's temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the preindustrial period.Social implicationsSustainable/green technologies might need upfront investment to implement sustainable technologies.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this paper is to provide a long-term integrated perspective on energy demand and supply, emissions, and a framework for the formulation of an integrated climate and development policy.

Saudi Arabia will implement a dual climate policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Oil And Gas Resources ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
Energy Companies

Significance Ahead of COP26, Saudi Arabia announced a Green Initiative and ambitious targets including net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. At the same time, officials are arguing that continued development of oil and gas resources is compatible with pursuing the long-term goal of decarbonisation. Impacts Saudi Arabia may struggle to wean the electricity sector off its near-total reliance on fossil fuels. State-owned firms Aramco and Sabic will seek to develop new revenue streams from technologies that contribute to global decarbonisation. Shareholder pressure on international energy companies may give Aramco a short-term boost, but a supply squeeze risks unsustainable prices.

Prospects for fossil fuels in 2018

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Long Term Trends

Significance US shale is now the swing provider in global oil markets and rising prices have encouraged production increases. With prices for future delivery lower than spot rates, buyers are paying a premium to obtain prompt supplies and helping to draw down stocks. Fossil fuel prices are likely to remain stable in the short term, but long-term trends will have an increasing impact.

scholarly journals The triple crisis of debt, demand and decarbonisation: a preliminary analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on commodity-dependent developing economies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keston K. Perry
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to offer a preliminary overview and analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on commodity-dependent developing economies (CDDEs). Using debt, decarbonisation and demand as empirical and analytical prisms to understand impacts and dynamics, the paper offers “rent space” as a theoretical tool to appreciate the changing possibilities for using resource rents for capital accumulation and expand development frontiers. It maps out the certain common features among this group of developing countries facing an increasingly adverse and uncertain situation. It offers a political economic perspective on the global dynamics and internal political situation that constrain these countries’ ability to manage the effects of this external shock that date to the 2008 crisis, and to therefore shore up an effective recovery in the coming years. Design/methodology/approach The paper draws together secondary literature and evidence from a number of sources including the World Bank, United Nations and International Monetary Fund on the empirical situation in these countries in view of COVID-19. The paper uses a thematic approach to understand how the current crisis has exposed these embedded and worsening vulnerabilities in this group of countries. Findings Results demonstrate the wide-ranging effects of COVID-19 as an existential crisis of demand in short and medium term, the explosion of debt due to actually occurring financialisation and the looming medium and long-term consequences of decarbonisation that may oblige countries to abandon exploitation of fossil fuel resources. Originality/value In the final analysis, COVID-19 has revealed a number of lingering effects of the commodity boom and global financial crisis. The increased indebtedness that resulted not only underscores the long-term unviability of commodity-based development as a strategy but also reveals new unprecedented weaknesses and challenges. Given the current configuration of global and domestic political economy dynamics, the paper shows that the “rent space” in fossil fuel exporters is particularly constrained and shrinking, compared to mineral exporters, but all showing a trend towards concentration in commodity production overall and worsening prospects for green recovery or industrial pathway.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE CAUSALITY OF CO2 EMISSIONS, CONSUMPTION OF FOSSIL FUELS, ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA IN 1990-2019

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (02) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Melati Intan Kurnia ◽  
Hadi Sasana ◽  
Yustirania Septiani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Fossil Fuel Consumption

<p><em>Increasing economic growth will spark against increased energy consumption. But on the other hand, increasing economic growth will also trigger the occurrence of natural damage and degradation of environmental quality derived from CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are caused by oxidation process of fossil fuel energy. This research aims to know the causality relationship between CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption, and economic growth in Indonesia, as well as long-term relationship between CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption, to economic growth in Indonesia in 1990 – 2019. The used data is the secondary data that is in the form of data time series. The dependent variables of this study are economic growth, while independent variables are CO2 emissions, fossil fuel consumption, electricity consumption. The method that is used in this study is Vector Error Correction Model. The results showed that there was a one-way causality between economic growth and fossil fuel consumption, and between electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. The research also shows that on long-term CO2 emissions has a negative influence, while the consumption of fossil fuels and electricity has a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth in 1990-2019.</em></p><p><strong><em>K</em></strong><strong><em>eywords</em></strong><em>: CO2, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth.</em></p>

scholarly journals A climate investment trap in developing economies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Ameli ◽  
Olivier Dessens ◽  
Matthew Winning ◽  
Jennifer Cronin ◽  
Hugues Chenet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Green Electricity ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Sustainable Finance ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Finance is vital for the green energy transition, but the access to low cost finance is uneven as the cost of capital differs substantially between regions. This study shows how modelled decarbonisation pathways of developing economies are disproportionately impacted by assumptions around their cost of capital (WACC). For example, representing regionally specific WACC values indicates 35% lower green electricity production in Africa for a cost-optimal 2°C pathway. Moreover, results show that early convergence of WACC values for green and brown technologies in 2050 would allow Africa to reach net-zero emissions approximately 10 years earlier than when convergence is not considered. A “climate investment trap” arises for developing economies when climate-related investments remain chronically insufficient. Elements of sustainable finance frameworks currently present barriers to these finance flows and radical changes are needed so that capital is better allocated to the regions that most need it.

scholarly journals Energy Transition and Climate Change in Decision-Making Processes

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 13404
Author(s):  
Georgios Tsantopoulos ◽  
Evangelia Karasmanaki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Fuel Technology

Humans have been using fossil fuels for centuries, and the development of fossil fuel technology reshaped society in lasting ways [...]

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

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