Sudan's economic reform will prove challenging

Significance Bringing tangible improvements to the economy will be a major challenge for Sudan’s new transitional government. Economic hardship and anger over perceived government corruption were recurring causes of protests over recent years and could be again. Impacts The government will publicise its efforts to stabilise prices, although actually achieving this may prove elusive. Efforts to secure removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism will be a major focus, but this process will take time. Delisting would be welcomed by businesses and investors, and would boost debt relief prospects, but will not resolve underlying challenges. Significant new foreign investment will depend on the government’s performance, but fresh injections of international aid can be expected.

Significance While a huge step towards a possible democratic transition, the real challenge facing Sudan’s revolution will come in its implementation phases. Impacts Senior TMC figures will continue to wield disproportionate influence due to their control of key institutions and economic sectors. Economic reform will be a central challenge; the situation will likely get worse before it gets better. The deal could see Sudan removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism and move towards debt relief, though both may take time.


Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zia Wahdat ◽  
Michael Gunderson

PurposeThe study investigates whether there is an association between climate types and farm risk attitudes of principal operators.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits temperature variation in the diverse climate types across the US and defines hot- and cold-climate states. Ordered logit and generalized ordered logit models are used to model principal operators' farm risk attitudes, which are measured on a Likert scale. The study uses two datasets. The first dataset is a 2017 survey of US large commercial producers (LCPs). The second dataset provides a Köppen-Geiger climate classification of the US at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin for a 25-year period (1986–2010).FindingsThe study finds that principal operators in hot-climate states are 4–5% more likely to have a higher willingness to take farm risk compared to principal operators in cold-climate states.Research limitations/implicationsIt is likely that farm risk mitigation decisions differ between hot- and cold-climate states. For instance, the authors show that corn acres' enrollment in federal crop insurance and computers' usage for farm business are pursued more intensely in cold-climate states than in hot-climate states. A differentiation of farm risk attitude by hot- and cold-climate states may help agribusiness, the government and economists in their farm product offerings, farm risk management programs and agricultural finance models, respectively.Originality/valueBased on Köppen-Geiger climate classification, the study introduces hot- and cold-climate concepts to understand the relationship between climate types and principal operators' farm risk attitudes.


Significance A 2018 peace agreement was meant to provide space for economic reform and recovery, but it has failed to deliver this. Moreover, the outlook for improvement remains poor. Impacts Many South Sudanese will remain reliant on international organisations to provide basic services. Corruption and mismanagement will deter foreign investment, including in the oil sector, the main source of government revenue. Despite a formal end to the conflict, persistent insecurity and the risk of further unrest will constrain the recovery.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


Significance The outcome comes as little surprise, given the repressive tactics used by the Ortega administration in the run-up to the vote, which included the disqualification or imprisonment of numerous opposition candidates. The United States and other international actors are now poised to put increased pressure on the re-elected government. Impacts The prospect of extended sanctions will act as a further disincentive to foreign investment. Ortega’s efforts to boost regional support through increased alignment with Honduras may lead to greater bilateral trade. More undocumented Nicaraguan migration looks inevitable, whether due to continuing political repression or worsening economic hardship.


Significance The government is nevertheless shaken. Protests were triggered by severe economic hardship, and reflect a loss of public confidence that the government can improve matters. The state’s repressive response has led to expressions of disconformity from individuals hitherto loyal to the system, which may signal emerging fissures within the ruling elite. Impacts Piecemeal reforms, announced to appease protesters, will do little to improve Cubans’ lives. Sweeping reforms are unlikely as they would strain elite cohesion. Diaz-Canel’s handling of the crisis illustrates the limitations of his authority. Perceptions of elite unity, long key to political stability, are now problematic, offering little flexibility or hope of change.


Significance The country’s economy has been in decline for some time, and the government is increasingly plagued by corruption scandals. Impacts A contested election will likely further undermine the increasingly fraught relationship between Zambia and international donors. New government borrowing to fund populist policies will further complicate economic reform prospects. The replacement of recently deceased Chief Justice Irene Mambilima may become politicised given the courts’ role in resolving poll disputes.


2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Greenough

In mid-April of 1958 the Government of Pakistan summoned the press to announce a grave need for international aid to cope with smallpox and cholera epidemics in East Pakistan. In response, and with the backing of the US State Department, Dr. Alexander D. Langmuir, chief epidemiologist of the CDC, led a team of epidemiologists to assist authorities in Dacca strengthen their immunization programs. Langmuir's superiors hoped for a Cold War advantage, but he saw an opportunity for trainees in the Epidemic Intelligence Service to learn about public health in a developing country. Langmuir later described the episode as a "wild and wondrous ride," but it had been more like a nightmare: the East Pakistan health department had collapsed; a popular movement had taken over vaccination and squandered vaccine supplies; hostile journalists had questioned the Americans' deeper motives; and a professional rivalry opened between the Americans and a British epidemiologist named Aidan Cockburn. By the time the epidemic subsided in July 1958, 30 million Bengalis had been vaccinated for smallpox but another 20,000 had succumbed to the disease. This episode was CDC's first sustained foreign intervention, a precursor to its extensive role in the 1970s helping WHO eradicate smallpox from Bangladesh.


Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.


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