Zambia’s Patriotic Front faces major election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Significance The country’s economy has been in decline for some time, and the government is increasingly plagued by corruption scandals. Impacts A contested election will likely further undermine the increasingly fraught relationship between Zambia and international donors. New government borrowing to fund populist policies will further complicate economic reform prospects. The replacement of recently deceased Chief Justice Irene Mambilima may become politicised given the courts’ role in resolving poll disputes.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Myanmar Panglong meeting will be modest success

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dialogue ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Adequate Response ◽  
National League ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Sticking Point

Subject Outlook for Myanmar's Panglong conference, beginning on August 31. Significance Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government will convene the '21st Century Panglong' peace conference on August 31; today, government, political party and ethnic representatives are reviewing the political dialogue framework for the conference and seeking to finalise agreements, while yesterday a Panglong convening committee was assembled. Billed as the next step in Myanmar's national reconciliation and peace process, the name invokes the 1947 Panglong conference. However, critical questions remain over the 2016 meeting's scope and attendees, and whether it will provide an adequate response to Myanmar's protracted civil conflicts. Impacts A successful conference would bolster the government politically, and encourage international donors and investors. Excluding civil society groups from future conferences could exacerbate frictions. The talks will likely reveal tough remaining obstacles to a true nation-wide ceasefire, even if non-signatory EAGs are included. Chinese influence over the peace process will be a sticking point, potentially igniting nationalist concern.

Kurti’s downfall weakens Kosovo during COVID-19 crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Partner ◽  
The Government

Significance The government had just 50 days in power. LVV’s junior coalition partner, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), initiated the ballot: 82 parliamentarians voted for the motion, including most LDK members, and 32 opposed it, mainly LVV members. Impacts The LVV’s fall from power ends Kosovo’s best hope for political and economic reform since the country broke from Serbia in 1999. The government’s expulsion from office has outraged many, although the COVID-19 lockdown means people cannot take to the streets in protest. The lifting of 100% tariffs has allowed Serbian imports to resume, to the benefit of Serbian exporters and Kosovo consumers.

Sudan's economic reform will prove challenging

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Corruption ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Bringing tangible improvements to the economy will be a major challenge for Sudan’s new transitional government. Economic hardship and anger over perceived government corruption were recurring causes of protests over recent years and could be again. Impacts The government will publicise its efforts to stabilise prices, although actually achieving this may prove elusive. Efforts to secure removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism will be a major focus, but this process will take time. Delisting would be welcomed by businesses and investors, and would boost debt relief prospects, but will not resolve underlying challenges. Significant new foreign investment will depend on the government’s performance, but fresh injections of international aid can be expected.

Ethiopian economic reform may prove challenging

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
The Government ◽  
Reform State

Subject Ethiopia economic reform prospects Significance Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has come to power at a crucial moment in the country’s economic trajectory, as Ethiopia’s centralised state-led development model begins to show significant signs of stress. Abiy now faces the enormous task of rethinking the economic policies of a 27-year-old regime while addressing the grievances of diverse population groups, whose sense of economic and political marginalisation has boiled over. Impacts The government will scramble to reform state-owned enterprises as part of its effort to salvage poorly managed mega-projects. The private sector’s lack of political capital could make it difficult for businesses to influence policy changes in their favour. Businesses may struggle if ruling elites revert to the position that the problem is not too much but too little state intervention. International donors may have more leverage over the new administration, as it looks to secure financial support and technical assistance.

Pension reform could derail France’s Macron

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Innovation Fund ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Macron’s economic reform agenda. Significance President Emmanuel Macron views his reforms through the prism of power: by strengthening the economy, he hopes to win credibility with Germany, whose support he needs to reform the EU and euro-area. However, the apparent ease of his labour regulations reform in September does not diminish the risk of his next two targets: unemployment benefits and pensions. Impacts With a shrinking share of euro-area exports, France will see limited benefit from the stronger global economy. Business confidence may increase if the government eases the regulatory burden on medium-to-large businesses. Financing an innovation fund by selling off some state assets will take time and likely have little impact on confidence.

Malawi election ruling will have far-reaching impacts

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The Court's heavy criticism of the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) means that changes of both personnel and structure are likely. The judgement has also given momentum to the opposition and talks about forging a coalition -- which would have comprehensively defeated the ruling party had it been in place for the original election -- have already begun. Impacts Significant energy and resources will be diverted to running a fresh election, deflecting attention away from pressing development concerns. The ruling is widely seen to have validated post-election popular protests and will encourage future mass mobilisation over controversies. The government will rely heavily on international donors to meet the cost of holding new elections given difficulties funding the 2019 poll. If the opposition can forge an effective coalition, a transfer of power is highly likely. The Kenyan and now Malawian legal precedents may embolden electoral courts elsewhere on the continent, especially in more democratic states.

Bahrain will press ahead with deeper economic reforms

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Business Interests ◽  
Fiscal Adjustments ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince

Significance The trial comes amid an escalating crackdown against domestic opposition forces. The crackdown has been presented as a response to Iranian-backed subversion, but the government also has grounds for concern about popular discontent at worsening economic conditions, particularly among the country's Shia majority. Impacts Unpopular fiscal adjustments alone are unlikely to prompt major civil unrest, but could reinforce the Shia community's sense of exclusion. Hardliners are likely to intensify the crackdown further as economic reforms target allied business interests. The crown prince has a chance to rebuild influence on the back of economic reform, but hardliners will continue to dominate. Bahrain's dependence on Saudi Arabia for financial and security support will increase, although Riyadh faces formidable challenges itself.

Reforms' concrete impact on Turkey may not be obvious

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
International Business ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Laws And Regulations

Subject The outlook for economic reform. Significance The government is carrying out a series of changes to laws and regulations affecting the business environment, aiming to make the economy more competitive and encouraging investors. Legislation on taxation and labour markets is already before parliament. Some landmark changes could be made, particularly in taxation. Other steps may be minor or partial, and their contribution to the economy and business environment may be less clear. Impacts The reform process may well help stabilise Turkey's ranking in international business indices. For individual firms, significant opportunities or benefits could arise, or changes in the environments in which they operate. Financial markets will react positively to progress on reforms, despite a focus on global financial and economic conditions and politics.

Burundian constitutional reform will deepen crisis

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Basic Needs ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Extrajudicial Killings ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Subject Burundi constitutional reform Significance President Pierre Nkurunziza's third term has been marred by accusations of state-sponsored extrajudicial killings, a regional refugee crisis and international ostracism. Recently, he has launched a campaign to amend the constitution to allow him to run for the presidency again. The government has also hinted at other significant constitutional changes and restructurings of laws governing parties and politics. This would further contract Burundi’s democratic space, already in peril since a 2015 coup attempt and contested presidential election. Impacts Nkurunziza’s plans will face little opposition either from non-partisans within the ruling party or from the formal opposition. Despite deteriorating conditions, most international donors will provide only minimal levels of aid to meet basic needs. Without significant intervention, assassinations and disappearances linked to the regime will likely continue.

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