Prospects for South Africa in 2020

Subject Prospects for South Africa in 2020. Significance Fiscal woes and muted growth prospects are weighing heavily on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government as it attempts to stabilise ailing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and rein in public debt amid the prospect of further rating agency downgrades. Anti-corruption reforms are gaining momentum, while opposition parties undertake leadership changes and strategic manoeuvring ahead of the 2021 local elections.

Subject Urban governance in South Africa. Significance Amid preparations for 2016 local elections, the Treasury has warned that 86 out 278 municipalities are in "financial distress". Urban debt woes are causing fiscal risks elsewhere in the state apparatus, notably for power utility Eskom. Political interference in senior appointments and consequent high executive turnover and skills deficits are partly to blame. However, it is also clear that some municipalities are unviable. Impacts Municipalities in former 'homeland' areas will be hard to reform due to the added layer of government created by traditional chiefs. High wage demands from public sector unions may force municipalities to cut capital or maintenance spending, hurting service delivery. The fortunes of large cities such as Johannesburg will continue to diverge from smaller municipalities.


Significance The appointment follows Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan's reconstitution of the Eskom board in January, aimed at restoring credible governance to the utility, which has been plagued by corruption allegations and a liquidity crisis. Hadebe is the twelfth acting or permanent head of Eskom in the last decade. Impacts Partial reforms to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are unlikely to be sufficient for rating agency upgrades later this year. ANC efforts to tone down proposed controversial land reform measures, by avoiding constitutional amendment, may partially placate investors. Proposed tariff hikes by Eskom will face opposition from opposition parties, trade unions and industry groups.


Significance Both reflecting and channelling recent localised protests about various issues, this movement of non-party youth has become a focal point for growing frustration with President Joao Lourenco’s government. With wide appeal, the movement has also taken both the ruling and opposition parties by surprise. Impacts The demonstrations will make it more challenging for the MPLA to win local elections if, and when, they are held. UNITA will struggle to maintain its current balancing act of backing the protests but not wanting to appear to foment unrest. Parliamentary consensus on the remaining bills for local elections may prove elusive: the MPLA will likely insist on contentious provisions.


Significance As part of Occidental Petroleum’s 56-billion-dollar bid to buy Anadarko, the former has agreed to sell the latter’s African assets to Total for 8.8 billion dollars. This will give Total new assets in Mozambique, Ghana, Algeria and South Africa. Impacts Total could prove a financially and technically stronger partner than Anadarko to develop future phases of the Mozambique LNG project. The deal could lead to further delays for Total's Uganda project as it focuses on more appealing prospects amid lingering tax disputes. The acquisition may be complicated by political developments in Algeria and recent leadership changes in state-owned energy firm Sonatrach.


Significance The new forecast is based on strong results in the second quarter, better-than-expected tourism revenues over the summer months and the approval of the Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan by the European Commission in July. Mitsotakis also announced several new measures, including tax cuts to stimulate spending. Impacts High unemployment (14.2% of the labour force) and structural labour market weaknesses will constrain growth. Structural reforms lost momentum during the pandemic, dampening medium-term economic growth prospects. Public opposition to vaccination might necessitate new movement restrictions by year-end, inhibiting growth. Availability of a EUR30bn liquidity buffer will support sovereign ratings and investor interest in the short term. Short- and medium-term public debt refinancing risks remain low as 75% of debt stock is held by the official sector.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheunesu Zhou

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between public debt, corporate debt service costs and private capital formation in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the long-run characteristic of investment, the study adopts the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares approach and tests for cointegration using Hansen (1992)'s Parameter Instability test.FindingsWe find that private capital formation increases in domestic debt and decreases in external debt during the pre-crisis period. However, during the period post the Global Financial Crisis, we find evidence of domestic public debt crowding out private capital formation, whereas external debt crowds-in capital formation. Debt service costs are found to reduce investment due to the effect of the debt overhang throughout the period under analysis.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper has important implications for macroeconomic policy. In particular, there is need for deleveraging and allocation of a higher proportion of debt to public infrastructure expenditure which has complementary effects on private investment.Practical implicationsDebt overhang signal that South African firms could be over-leveraged, which hinders future growth prospects. Firms that face high levels of debt should consider debt restructuring.Originality/valueEmpirical studies undertaken to explore this relationship have yielded contradicting results suggesting that the relationship between public debt and private investment is heterogeneous depending on a given economy or prevailing macroeconomic environment. In particular, existing research does not provide evidence on whether recent increases in public debt in South Africa have led to crowding-in or crowding-out of private investment. This paper therefore contributes to empirical literature on the impact of public debt on private investment within a small open economy.


Significance The gold sector has so far avoided strikes (NUM concluded a wage agreement affecting two firms on October 2), unlike the wider mining sector. Government policies and support initiatives, along with leadership changes, are unlikely to improve the outlook. Impacts The special tax commission's rejection of windfall taxes on mining will provide a moderate confidence boost. However, strong support for such measures from ANC provincial bodies could keep them on the party's agenda. The NUM strike raises the risk of power blackouts given the country's dependence on Eskom's finite coal reserves. NUM rival, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU), could reject the gold sector wage agreement, raising strike risks. AMCU only has sufficient members for a protected strike at Sibanye Gold, opening the possibility of retrenchments.


Subject Indian growth is high but public debt is rising. Significance Despite evidence that demonetisation slowed the economy in the first quarter of 2017, India is likely to revert again to being one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, India’s level of public debt is higher than in many other emerging markets while bank credit is slowing, threatening the country’s growth prospects. Impacts Central government will increase expenditure on investment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be pressed to cut interest rates further, after today reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%. India’s new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code should help to ease the problem of bad debt and non-performing loans.


Significance Mkhwebane's proposal that the SARB should promote broad-based economic growth, rather than focus on inflation and the currency, dominated debates ahead of the ANC's policy conference between June 30-July 5. Subsequently, the ruling party determined that the SARB should be nationalised, while re-affirming its constitutionally guaranteed independence and also demanding the government set up a state bank within six months. Impacts Damaging financial revelations at state-owned enterprises such as Eskom could undermine the impetus for a state-owned bank. Opposition parties could mobilise with civil society groups to try force Mkhwebane’s resignation. Ongoing corruption allegations surrounding the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) could implicate the deputy minister of finance.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bongumusa Prince Makhoba ◽  
Irrshad Kaseeram ◽  
Lorraine Greyling

PurposeThe primary purpose of the study is to analyse the asymmetric effects of public debt on economic growth, using secondary data over the period 1980–2018 in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachThis study estimated a Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach, using time series data to analyse the asymmetric effect of public debt on economic growth in South Africa.FindingsThe findings revealed a significant nonlinear relationship between public debt and economic growth in South Africa. The results showed an inverted U-Shape relationship, implying a significant positive influence of public debt on economic growth during the low-debt regime. While during a high-debt regime, public debt exerted a significant negative effect on economic growth. The study proposes that policymakers ought to consider targeting a sustainable debt threshold that would enhance efficient use of public finances consistent with long-term economic prosperity.Originality/valueThis paper asymmetries and threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in South Africa, through the application of dynamic nonlinear models namely, Smooth Transition Regression (STAR) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Studies on the relationship under examination have predominantly been confined in advanced economies. This study provides rigorous empirical evidence from the South African perspective.


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