India faces huge COVID-19 burden absent more testing

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Daily Wage ◽  
Wage Earners ◽  
Limited Testing ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject India's attempts to curb the spread of COVID-19. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 24 announced a 21-day lockdown in response to the COVID-19 crisis, describing this as a “curfew” for India’s 1.3 billion people. Although people can leave their homes to procure essentials such as food and medicine, and certain key services are exempt from the shutdown, the aim of the drastic measure is to prevent community spread of the coronavirus, through social distancing. India has recorded little more than 700 cases of COVID-19, but it has undertaken only limited testing for infection. Impacts The government will aim to curtail the spread of misinformation about COVID-19, such as pseudoscientific theories about possible cures. People attacking healthcare professionals due to fears they may spread the coronavirus will face strong punitive action from authorities. A stimulus package announced by Delhi yesterday should ease some concerns among daily-wage earners about food security amid the lockdown.

Post-virus downturn could hurt Hungary’s government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Soft Power ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
European People’S Party ◽  
The Government ◽  
Stimulus Package

Significance The pandemic has strengthened Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s position in the short term. However, the government has done little on the economic front; a conservative stimulus package raises doubts that a lasting downturn can be averted and is driving medium-term risks to ruling Fidesz’s position. Impacts Tensions within the European People’s Party over Fidesz will deepen, but probably not lead to the party’s exclusion. China’s soft power will be boosted as its role in combating the virus is contrasted with Western indecisiveness. Large multinational manufacturing and services firms could penetrate the economy further but may not be able to drive a quick rebound.

COVID-19 lockdown will deepen India’s rifts

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Basic Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
Global Leader ◽  
The Government ◽  
Daily Wage ◽  
The Right

Subject Impact of India's COVID-19 lockdown. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi today extended India’s COVID-19 lockdown to May 3. Police have frequently resorted to heavy-handed tactics to enforce restrictions on movement, and the lockdown has left millions unable to earn a daily wage. Impacts Modi will aim to assert his credentials as a global leader by encouraging greater international cooperation in handling the pandemic. Even after curbs on movement are lifted, the government will likely cite public health concerns to restrict the right to protest. There will be growing calls for a universal basic income.

UK freeports agenda may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Central Component ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Government

Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.

Five-party Czech government must compromise on policy

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Uncertainty

Significance The five-party coalition enters office at a time of intense economic and social uncertainty resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, rising debt and soaring energy prices. Prime Minister Petr Fiala's greatest challenges involve negotiating between the five coalition partners and restoring respectability to Czech politics. Impacts The new government will be less sceptical about closer EU integration, given the upcoming Czech EU presidency from mid-2022. The government will try to reopen EU Green Deal chapters to renegotiate compensation for highly industrialised member states. Former Prime Minister Andrej Babis may run for president in 2023. Babis will strive to avoid losing parliamentary immunity from prosecution relating to the Stork’s Nest affair and alleged EU subsidy fraud.

Third COVID wave will further dampen Algeria's economy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Government

Significance The government has reimposed social distancing restrictions, but a reinvigorated pandemic will hurt the economy further and forestall any economic turnaround. Impacts Algeria may find itself at a disadvantage compared to Morocco and Egypt, which have made greater progress countering the pandemic. The longer Algeria’s economic turnaround is delayed, the more likely it is that the country will have to resort to external financing. If the country’s economic crisis becomes more acute, the president would likely reshuffle the cabinet in an effort to shift blame. The president himself may also come under pressure to resign.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

South Africa’s COVID-19 lockdown dilemma

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Michael Ward
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
South African ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Grocery Shopping ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Medical Emergencies ◽  
Daily Wage ◽  
The Masses ◽  
Wage Earners

Learning outcomes The case presents a significant amount of information on the outbreak of COVID-19 and the expected impact on the economy. Although the case is necessarily concise, several links are given to the online articles and video material on which the case is based. This allows participants to deepen their knowledge of the virus and their understanding of its likely economic impact. To frame the discussion, several philosophies, ranging from Libertarianism to Marxism, are lightly expounded. Readers will need to consider divergent ideas; the sanctity of human life versus the monetary value of a life; the hysteria evoked by COVID-19 deaths versus the placid acceptance of an annual 66,000 deaths by another disease – TB; and the differential economic impact of the virus across extremes of inequality. Perhaps, the key issue relates to the skewness in the death rate: Should young people’s livelihood be sacrificed for a few old people about to die anyway? The case also illustrates the essence of a dilemma – a situation in which a difficult choice has to be made between two or more alternatives, especially ones that are equally undesirable. Case overview/synopsis In March 2020, South African President Cyril Ramaposa ordered a 21-day national “lockdown” to enable and enforce social distancing in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19. Many other countries had already taken similar steps, but in a country with 43,000 murders annually, South Africa’s response to only 11 COVID-19 deaths and 1,071 cases was both rapid and harsh. Schools, businesses, social areas and parks were closed. Medical emergencies, essential services and weekly grocery shopping were the only permissible activities. Two weeks after lockdown, there were 1,845 cases and 18 deaths, a far cry from the predicted 30,000 cases and 300 deaths, estimated on the basis of the three-day doubling rate at the start of lockdown. Many businesses, pulverised by closure, daily wage earners and those fearful of losing jobs were hopeful that the lockdown would not be extended. In a country with immense inequality, how would the masses under the age of 65 years, already in poverty and now with their lives pulled apart by an imported disease of the wealthy, respond to extended social and economic deprivation followed by bailouts for business? Complexity academic level MBA and Executive Education Supplementary materials Teaching Notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 11 Strategy.

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.

Fast growth may avert foreign banks' exit from Hungary

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

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