Guinea’s presidential polls will be next battleground

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Opposition Movement ◽  
The Eu

Significance The twin votes were marred by an opposition boycott, allegations of electoral fraud and apparent state-backed violence. With a COVID-19-related state of emergency now in operation, the Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), an umbrella civil society and opposition movement which opposed the new constitution, faces difficult strategic choices as it seeks to prevent President Alpha Conde seeking a third term in December’s scheduled presidential elections. Impacts Conde’s likely candidacy will further polarise the country and heighten the risk of civil unrest. In the event of an opposition candidate winning the presidency, the new constitution will almost certainly be repealed. A Conde candidacy and poll-related violence could see the EU issue targeted sanctions against Conde and his allies, including travel bans.

'Soros scare' tactics will wane for European populists

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East European ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Strategic Goal

Subject Attacks on George Soros in Central-Eastern European states. Significance Wealthy Hungarian-US financier and philanthropist George Soros has recently become instrumentalised by Central-Eastern European (CEE) politicians who present him as the symbol of a remote, non-native amd illegitimate elite. In part because of the anti-Soros campaign, opposition to liberal ideas and globalisation and broader rhetorical and administrative attacks on dissent are fast becoming mainstream in CEE countries. Impacts The rise of illiberal politics in CEE will deepen existing divisions within the EU and hinder further integration. Anti-Soros mobilisation in CEE furthers Russia’s strategic goal of undermining Western cohesion. As philanthropy comes under attack, East European civil society groups are likely to suffer, further weakening young democracies.

Majority may make Georgian ruling party invincible

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Identity Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Roll Back ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Significance The United National Movement (UNM) trailed far behind but will form the main parliamentary opposition. Turnout was low by Georgian standards at 51.6% and reflected voter fatigue with both main parties. A third of seats in parliament will be filled only after second-round elections take place, which will be held by November 2. Impacts A constitutional majority for Georgian Dream would allow it to roll back democratic advances. The EU and civil society groups will pay closer attention to encroachments on rights and freedoms. UNM will undergo a period of identity crisis.

Foreign support will not bring Venezuela investment

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Movement ◽  
The Eu

Significance Maduro is ending 2018 on a bullish note, before beginning his second six-year term on January 10, 2019. Constant US pressure was met this week with the arrival in Caracas of Russian supersonic bombers, after an official visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the previous week. The EU is moving behind dialogue efforts, but prospects for negotiations are poor absent a unified opposition movement -- a vacuum that facilitated the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)’s landslide in December 9 municipal elections. Impacts Maduro’s government will continue to work around isolation efforts by the Lima Group and the United States. The PSUV’s landslide win in the municipal elections will do nothing to bolster the government’s credibility abroad. The Russian intervention may lead Washington to reconsider strategy on Venezuela.

France’s recovery boosts Macron’s re-election hopes

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
High Base ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation is lower than in other major EU economies and unemployment is falling, albeit from a high base, as the country approaches presidential elections in April. Impacts Macron’s steady lead in the polls will boost investor confidence ahead of the presidential elections. While Spain is calling on the EU to start treating COVID-19 like influenza, France is unlikely to embrace such thinking until after April. The EU recovery fund and more flexible EU fiscal rules will enable the next government to pursue investment-led growth beyond 2022.

Third term bid will cloud Zambian funding prospects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Considerable Progress ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors

Significance A recent IMF mission reported considerable progress towards agreement on a proposed 1.2-billion-dollar rescue package. However, the increasingly authoritarian bent of the Patriotic Front (PF) government is complicating prospects for wider financial assistance. International donors are wary of supporting President Edgar Lungu who stands accused of rigging the 2016 presidential elections, undermining civil society, and interfering with the judiciary to secure a controversial third, five-year term in office. Impacts Without a comprehensive economic recovery plan in place shortly, ratings agency downgrades could take place later this year. The removal of popular subsidies on food and electricity is likely to trigger popular protest and result in opposition gains. Rising demand for copper in the United States and China may result in a spike in prices, alleviating economic decline.

Authoritarian consolidation in Belarus: What role for the EU?

European View ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 178168582110618
Author(s):  
Giselle Bosse
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Eu Policy ◽  
The Eu

The aim of this article is to review the EU’s relations with Belarus over recent decades; to examine the patterns, opportunities and limitations of the EU’s policies vis-à-vis the authoritarian regime; and to evaluate the effectiveness of the EU’s responses to the brutal crackdown on civil society and political opposition following the flawed presidential elections in August 2020. It is argued that, despite its careful balancing act between principled approach and pragmatic engagement, the EU’s perception of the Belarusian regime has been overly optimistic and often influenced by the appeal of short-term geopolitical and economic gains. How should the EU deal with a consolidating and increasingly ruthless dictatorship at the heart of Europe? By way of conclusion, the article maps a number of ‘lessons learned’ and suggestions for future EU policy towards Belarus.

Hungary's Fidesz is still set for re-election in 2018

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
The Political ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Movements ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Game

Subject The chances of political game-change by the 2018 elections. Significance Governing Fidesz has lost the political momentum it gained from its tough stance on refugees. Its response to the widely supported teachers' movement and scandals at the Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) have sapped its popularity. Fatigue with a party that has ruled Hungary single-handedly since 2010 gives the opposition a chance to challenge its hegemony. Impacts Fidesz will maintain its combative position towards the EU on refugee quotas to regain its lost popularity. Jobbik's ideological moderation will attract undecided voters unless it succumbs to internal divisions. Left-wing parties may draw on civil society opposition movements and organise referendums on controversial issues.

France’s robust terrorist response comes with risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Civil Society Organisations ◽  
Radical Islam ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Immigration And Asylum ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Charlie Hebdo

Significance The French government has responded by closing mosques viewed as suspicious and investigating civil society organisations suspected of fostering radicalisation. President Emmanuel Macron -- who recently said that Islam is in crisis -- has firmly defended France’s secular tradition and the publication by Charlie Hebdo of a controversial Prophet Mohammed cartoon. Impacts Macron’s robust stance on radical Islam threatens to weaken his relations with leaders in Muslim-majority countries. Terrorist groups and extremists will feel energised by recent attacks and emboldened to carry out further attacks. The rising terrorism risk across the EU will make member states even less willing to cooperate on immigration and asylum reform.

Summit for Democracy raises more policy questions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Midterm Elections

Significance The online meeting, which included civil society groups and representatives from the business sector, was ostensibly a forum for considering strategies to bolster democratic institutions. However, it also offered implicit criticisms of China and Russia while playing to Biden’s domestic agenda, in particular efforts to strengthen voting rights and bolster social spending. Impacts The second summit is expected soon after the November 2022 US midterm elections, when further claims of electoral fraud are likely. Criticism of Washington’s choice of participants will spark calls for a multinational committee to set the invitation list. Controversy over Taiwan’s inclusion in the Summit for Democracy will increase during 2022.

Western Balkans might seek new relationship with EU

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Nation Building ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
Republika Srpska ◽  
The Eu

Significance Non-economic priorities such as nation-building and partisan political interests have often shaped large developmental projects in the Western Balkans, facilitated by no-questions-asked capital from China, Russia and Turkey. The COVID-19 pandemic has created the opportunity to attract more promising projects, not least in the pharma and digital sectors. More vigorous assessment of the environmental and economic consequences of state-led development could facilitate the region’s prosperity and alignment with the EU. Impacts Civil society groups will put significant pressure on governments and investors to raise standards. Calls for the EU to support civil society and activists in Western Balkans directly will intensify. Serbia’s economic assertiveness could contribute to isolating Kosovo and encouraging breakaway tendencies in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska (RS).

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