'Soros scare' tactics will wane for European populists

Subject Attacks on George Soros in Central-Eastern European states. Significance Wealthy Hungarian-US financier and philanthropist George Soros has recently become instrumentalised by Central-Eastern European (CEE) politicians who present him as the symbol of a remote, non-native amd illegitimate elite. In part because of the anti-Soros campaign, opposition to liberal ideas and globalisation and broader rhetorical and administrative attacks on dissent are fast becoming mainstream in CEE countries. Impacts The rise of illiberal politics in CEE will deepen existing divisions within the EU and hinder further integration. Anti-Soros mobilisation in CEE furthers Russia’s strategic goal of undermining Western cohesion. As philanthropy comes under attack, East European civil society groups are likely to suffer, further weakening young democracies.

Subject Prospects for Central-Eastern Europe in 2017. Significance In the absence of robust business confidence, Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will implement short-term monetary and fiscal policies to support growth; GDP growth will suffer from global market vicissitudes and rising political tensions in key trading partners inside and outside the EU. The crisis in the EU will continue to bear down on South-Eastern Europe (SEE), bringing an effective end to the policy of enlargement.


Significance Tallinn is keen to showcase its success in developing its digital capabilities in both the public and private sectors. Estonia is one of a cluster of nine EU tech-sector high-performers, but is an outlier among Central-Eastern European (CEE) economies. Impacts Other CEE countries would profit from official policies as effective as Estonia's Digital Agenda 2020, adopted in 2014. However, Estonia may need a new impetus, having made no progress in its DESI ranking, unchanged in 2017 from 2016. The growth of the tech sector in those CEE states that are EU members will impact on the rest of the region. There are plans to create a 'digital community' with states of the Eastern Partnership. Companies based in Romania, Bulgaria and Poland are increasingly hiring graduates with tech skills from Moldova and Ukraine.


Subject Instability in eastern EU. Significance The EU has long reinforced Central-East European (CEE) member states with regulations and constraints. As it became absorbed in the euro-crisis and the nationalist surge, these countries felt less constrained and freer to act. Consequently, short-term or incoherent policy goals and elite-driven illiberal agendas are impeding good governance, anti-corruption efforts and further democratisation in some of CEE; none are exempt from government instability and rising nationalism. Impacts Instability in CEE is likely to discourage bold decisions on EU enlargement to North Macedonia and Albania. Economic malaise will make CEE governments less choosy regarding Chinese investments. An increasingly disenchanted public will be even more susceptible to internal and Russian disinformation campaigns.


Significance The United National Movement (UNM) trailed far behind but will form the main parliamentary opposition. Turnout was low by Georgian standards at 51.6% and reflected voter fatigue with both main parties. A third of seats in parliament will be filled only after second-round elections take place, which will be held by November 2. Impacts A constitutional majority for Georgian Dream would allow it to roll back democratic advances. The EU and civil society groups will pay closer attention to encroachments on rights and freedoms. UNM will undergo a period of identity crisis.


Significance The UK government says it is determined that free movement of people from the EU will end after Brexit. Impacts An upcoming immigration White Paper will provide greater clarity about the UK government’s approach. Proposals to reform the EU's Posted Workers Directive could trigger Eastern European opposition, deepening the east-west divide. Stricter post-Brexit UK immigration policies could lead to labour shortages and skills gaps in sectors such as agriculture and health. Improving euro-area economic prospects could encourage EU nationals living in the United Kingdom to return to the continent.


Subject Alleged discrepancies between the quality of foods on sale in the western and eastern EU. Significance Governments in eastern EU member states are recycling long-heard rumours that multinational food brands sold there are of poorer quality than in western states. Tests by some national authorities appear to confirm these fears. Such practices would not be illegal, but they exacerbate broader worries about second-class citizenship in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), compounded by uncertainty over the direction the EU will take in coming months. Impacts The east-west divide will deepen as a new front is opened ahead of a likely EU reform push later this year. CEE’s political significance will receive a momentary boost as countries show a united front on one of only a handful of issues. A reaction against multinationals from within the EU could make protectionism more respectable elsewhere in the world.


Subject Trump’s effect on US-European relations. Significance Staff turnover and fragmented decision-making at the highest level in the White House and State Department are leaving mounting problems in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) to the Defense Department and NATO. Along the Eastern frontier, concerns over Russian aggression have led to competition for more US attention from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Impacts Acceptance of the ‘America First’ doctrine will indirectly authorise nationalist politics in Europe. Trump’s admiration for their methods will empower East European ‘strongmen’. Turkey will further distance itself from core principles of NATO collaboration.


Headline EUROPE: Biden may help curb Central-Eastern corruption


2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-78
Author(s):  
Radosław Dziuba

At the beginning of the 1990s Poland, like the majority of the Central and East European countries (CEECs) undergoing transformations, overcame its initial distrust and began to recognize that the only path to regional stability and national economic growth was economic integration. The Central and Eastern European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), signed by the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia on 21 December 1992 in Cracow, provided for the elimination of a number of trade barriers and the growth in commercial exchanges between the signatory nations, aimed at facilitating their integration with the European Union at a later stage. This article constitutes an attempt to assess the main effects of the implementation of CEFTA on the functioning of its member states as well as their further integration as Member States of the EU. It also presents the main provisions of the modernized CEFTA 2006, and the current problems related to implementation of the agreement. It also discusses the opportunities and prospects for Croatia, as a former CEFTA member state, upon its scheduled accession to the EU in July 2013. This article is intended as an introduction to further and deeper analysis in this area.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document