France’s recovery boosts Macron’s re-election hopes

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
High Base ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation is lower than in other major EU economies and unemployment is falling, albeit from a high base, as the country approaches presidential elections in April. Impacts Macron’s steady lead in the polls will boost investor confidence ahead of the presidential elections. While Spain is calling on the EU to start treating COVID-19 like influenza, France is unlikely to embrace such thinking until after April. The EU recovery fund and more flexible EU fiscal rules will enable the next government to pursue investment-led growth beyond 2022.

Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
State Investment ◽  
The Eu

Significance Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her success in broadening RN’s appeal, widespread anti-establishment sentiment and Macron’s unpopularity and mixed record on COVID-19. Impacts To revive the economy, Macron will likely campaign for reform of EU fiscal rules to enable greater levels of state investment. Further terrorist attacks or assaults on police would increase the salience of immigration and law and order ahead of the 2022 election. Ahead of the election, Macron will be reluctant to show public support for the EU-China investment agreement.

Banned vote sets Catalonia on independence path

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
State Model ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Nationalist Party ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Eu

Significance Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said his government would “act at the end of this week or the beginning of next”, after more than 2 million Catalans voted for independence on October 1, despite a variety of state measures designed to prevent voting. Impacts International sympathy for the independence bid may force the EU to address the issue of separatism within member states for the first time. Rajoy’s handling of the Catalan challenge could damage the standing of his PP in future elections. Spanish debate about how to avoid secession will increasingly focus on the search for cross-party agreement on a different state model. The Catalan issue undermined the support Rajoy has received from the Basque Nationalist Party, preventing approval of the 2018 budget. Economic growth will be affected by a loss of international investor confidence, which would also be problematic for a Catalan republic.

Moderation is waning in Italy-EU conflict

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Deficit Reduction ◽  
Parallel Currency ◽  
Excessive Deficit Procedure ◽  
The Eu

Subject Italy's budget conflict. Significance June 5 marked a resumption in hostilities between Italy and the EU, after the European Commission sent a letter to Rome saying its spending plans were breaking EU fiscal rules. The Commission will now begin the process of implementing an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) against Italy aimed at reducing its deficit and debt. This will likely involve deficit reduction measures that could precipitate the collapse of the populist government. Impacts If an EDP is blocked, efforts to launch it will start again in September if Italy’s budget preview shows Rome not complying with EU rules. An EDP could lead to higher borrowing costs and make it more difficult for Rome to reduce its excessive debt, which is around 132% of GDP. A League-led right-wing government would push for aggressive tax cuts, potentially leaving Italy in the same predicament that it faces now. The implementation of a parallel currency to boost the supply of money would fuel concerns that Italy is prepared to leave the euro-area.

Prospects for the EU in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance Two of the most pressing issues will be reforms to EU fiscal rules and Poland's challenge to the primacy of EU law.

France’s Macron faces important election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Working Classes ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
Tackle Climate Change ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance Given the proximity to next year’s presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron and his main rival, National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen, view the regional elections as an important opportunity to test electoral strategies and build momentum. Impacts Seeking re-election could force Macron to mute his backing for the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). He will likely use the economic crisis to campaign for more flexible EU fiscal rules and further EU fiscal cooperation. Macron will intensify efforts to tackle climate change, but be careful to not anger the working classes or those living in rural areas.

Fajardo and Uribista blocs vie for power in Colombia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type

Subject Election preparations. Significance On December 10, the centre-left Coalition Colombia (CC) alliance announced that Sergio Fajardo would be its candidate in the May 2018 presidential elections. The same day, the Democratic Centre (CD) of former President Alvaro Uribe (2002-10) selected Ivan Duque as its contender. Duque will now face Marta Lucia Ramirez, of the Conservative Party, to decide who will lead the centre-right electoral coalition formed in advance of the vote. Despite the respectable poll ratings of several other candidates, the contest looks likely to become a race between the Fajardo and Uribista coalitions. Impacts FARC presidential candidate Rodrigro Londono Echeverri has negligible support in polls, and is unlikely to do well. Duque’s popularity may rise as campaigning advances and more people become aware that he is Uribe’s candidate. Pension and public spending reforms will be needed under the next government to reduce the deficit and comply with statutory fiscal rules.

Guinea’s presidential polls will be next battleground

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Strategic Choices ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Electoral Fraud ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Opposition Movement ◽  
The Eu

Significance The twin votes were marred by an opposition boycott, allegations of electoral fraud and apparent state-backed violence. With a COVID-19-related state of emergency now in operation, the Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), an umbrella civil society and opposition movement which opposed the new constitution, faces difficult strategic choices as it seeks to prevent President Alpha Conde seeking a third term in December’s scheduled presidential elections. Impacts Conde’s likely candidacy will further polarise the country and heighten the risk of civil unrest. In the event of an opposition candidate winning the presidency, the new constitution will almost certainly be repealed. A Conde candidacy and poll-related violence could see the EU issue targeted sanctions against Conde and his allies, including travel bans.

Domestic factors will weigh on Central Europe’s autos

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Trade Policy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Car Industry ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Eu

Subject Central Europe’s car industry. Significance The uncertainty surrounding US foreign trade policy has created headwinds to growth for Central Europe (CE) and its automotive sector, even though CE auto exports are highly concentrated on the EU, and CE has only limited trade exposure to the United States. Business and consumer confidence is patchy among some of the fastest-growing economies in the region, such as Poland. Impacts CE auto production will be an important driver of economic growth in 2018-19; Slovakia has the highest per capita auto production globally. Robust GDP growth should help partly offset declines in business or investor confidence in the short term. However, the worsening price competitiveness of the car industry will be a concern.

Scenarios for European growth are narrow

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Economic ◽  
Political Backlash ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject European economic outlook. Significance European economic growth is set to continue on a downward trend and might turn negative. Despite the need for substantial macroeconomic expansion, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which it can be engineered within Europe, while pressures outside the EU will make the economic environment more fragile. Impacts Only a recession in Germany which triggers a strong political backlash could see Berlin implement a significant fiscal stimulus package. While Europe’s dependency on Saudi oil is low, a prolonged decline in production would add to pressure on its economy. Italy’s new government will respect EU fiscal rules and reduce concerns that Italy could leave the euro.

Corporate social responsibility and earnings management in the EU: a panel data analysis approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Earnings Management ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
The Eu

Purpose Over the past decades, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been considered as a significant corporate strategy and also has been documented as a main information dissemination mechanism of corporations to shareholders, creditors and other external stakeholders. This fact makes the CSR activities and CSR performance interconnected with the quality of firms’ financial reporting. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of CSR performance on the earnings management (EM) behaviour using a sample from 24 European Union (EU) countries summing up to 121,154 firm-year observations over the period 2003–2018. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a multi-country data set with various dimensions of CSR performance including indexes regarding workforce, community relations, product responsibility and human rights protection. The empirical analysis is conducted with panel data regressions. Findings Evidence supports the negative association between CSR and EM indicating that high CSR performing firms are associated with less income smoothing and discretionary accruals, thus with higher financial reporting quality. Practical implications Regulatory agencies in the EU could use the findings of the study for the improvement of the accounting framework via enhancing the use and publications of social and environmental responsibility information and reports. Social implications Also, the current paper could be of interest not only to academic researchers but also to potential and existing investors in European corporations. The negative association between CSR performance and EM could be used by investors in assessing the risk of firms and the quality and reliability of their financial information. Originality/value This is the first study within the EU, which considers the multi-facet characteristics of CSR on the quality of accounting earnings and offers useful policy implications for regulators and investors.

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