Terrorism Risk Assessment to Children: A Study in Poso

The long history of conflict in Poso, Indonesia, causes the trauma of people living in the area, including children. This study aims to examine the risks and needs of children raised amongst terrorist organizations in Poso. 33 children whose parents were involved in terrorist groups were assessed in this study and analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods. The findings show that the average risk is 1.35, which is at low risk. Moreover, they need to be addressed to prevent them from joining terrorist groups. The findings could help educational and counterterrorism practitioners to plan an intervention for children raised within the terrorism movement in Poso.

Understanding Lone-Actor Terrorists: The Global Context and How it can be Applied to New Zealand

While the Christchurch mosque attacks on 15 March 2019 were asserted to have changed New Zealand’s national security context, arguably the possibility of such an attack was foreseen, and, internationally, there was evidence of increasing risk of such attacks occurring. This paper explores the current state of international lone-actor research, and looks at how this can be applied in an endeavour to prevent future attacks in New Zealand. This paper combines an overview of the international lone-actor phenomenon, with New Zealand’s historical and contemporary terrorism context, and explores the extent that international research may have a bearing on current and future lone-actor terrorism risk here. It argues careful attention to identifiable indicators and protective factors, as well as local context, as essential in the contemplation of current and future attempts to pre-emptively identify and prevent potential lone-actor terrorism in New Zealand.

Detecting Markers of Radicalisation in Social Media Posts

This study involved the creation of factors and indicators that can detect radicalization in social media posts. A concurrent approach of an expert knowledge acquisition process (modified Delphi technique) and literature review was utilized. Seven Singapore subject-matter experts in the field of terrorism evaluated factors that were collated from six terrorism risk assessment tools (ERG 22+, IVP, TRAP-18, MLG, VERA-2, and Cyber-VERA). They identify those that are of most considerable relevance for detecting radicalization in social media posts. A parallel literature review on online radicalization was conducted to complement the findings from the expert panel. In doing so, 12 factors and their 42 observable indicators were derived. These factors and indicators have the potential to guide the development of cyber-focused screening tools to detect radicalization in social media posts.

The Use of Terrorism Risk Assessment Tools in Australia to Manage Residual Risk

There is growing concern in Australia about the residual risk of acts of terrorism or violent extremism posed by offenders after their release to the community from jail. A number of legislative measures have been passed that attempt to address this particular risk. Terrorism risk assessment tools are central to the effective operation of these new laws. Although existing tools demonstrate potential in assisting decision makers in identifying and managing persons that pose a risk of extremist violence there remain several challenges. These tools provide a useful guide to information gathering and analysis, however the assessment process is time consuming and resource intensive. Further, existing tools are currently given limited weight by the courts which impairs the effectiveness of legal measures designed to address residual risk.

Jihadist Travelers and Terrorism Risk Assessment in the Netherlands

In the Netherlands, police use IR46 as a Terrorism Risk Assessment Instrument for identifying radicalized individuals and the risk or threat they pose. Originally, its focus was on ideological radicalization as a precursor to terrorist violence. Here, it reflected mainstream thinking in terrorism studies, which held that terrorists overall are ‘normal’ in terms of mental health and socio-economic backgrounds. New empirical research called this ‘normality paradigm’ into doubt, and IR46 has changed accordingly. One example of this research was a 2015 study in Dutch police files describing behavioural problems and disorders in jihadist travelers to the Middle East. This chapter presents new findings from a follow-up study from 2019. The studies, and similar research elsewhere, have indicated that jihadist travelers on average have a history of adverse socio-economic conditions, high criminality, and more mental health problems than their peers. Individual backgrounds may have contributed to their susceptibility to extremist messages. These backgrounds can be quite diverse though, which does not allow for an accurate prediction of those who actually commit a terrorist crime. Nevertheless, insight in these backgrounds provides new angles for identifying and managing risk in individuals of concern.