ASEAN-EU free trade pact will take time to materialise

Significance The two sides have long been dialogue partners. They are widely expected to step up negotiations over an inter-regional free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts ASEAN and the EU will collaborate more over COVID-19 recovery efforts, including development and supply of vaccines. The two sides will expedite talks on an air transport agreement to boost connectivity. Non-traditional security issues such as climate change will be key areas of focus in bilateral consultations.

Significance Talks will be held virtually because of restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. A key focus will be finalisation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free trade agreement (FTA) involving the ten ASEAN members and five of the bloc’s dialogue partners. Impacts Discussion at the summits about non-traditional security issues such as climate change are unlikely to result in substantive outcomes. Countries deemed to be at low risk from COVID-19 may push for a common framework to reboot business and leisure travel. Formal launch of a COVID-19 ASEAN Response Fund, announced at June’s ASEAN summit, may spur greater regional cooperation over the pandemic.


Significance The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers. Impacts The deal will make it slightly easier to reach a UK-US free trade agreement, though strong divisions remain. The strict conditionality associated with the FTA suggests Euroscepticism will remain an important feature of UK politics. The process and costs associated with Brexit makes it less likely that Eurosceptic member states will attempt to leave the EU.


Significance The country's vote to leave the EU has added momentum to a realignment of UK economic and foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region underway for some years. Parliamentarian Richard Graham, a prime ministerial trade envoy, visited Manila in late August to explore the prospects for closer ties, including a Philippines-UK free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts China will tolerate greater Philippine-UK engagement if London stays out of South China Sea disputes. If controversy over Duterte's crime crackdown grows, May might face domestic political pressures to keep Manila at arm's length for now. Duterte's abrasive political style may deter fresh investment pledges. Closer defence ties with Manila would aid improvements in the United Kingdom's ties with ASEAN and its other members.


Significance Delhi and London have a strategic partnership, but relations have for many years been lukewarm. Each side has talked up the prospect of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts India-UK trade will grow, even without an FTA. The number of Indian students at UK universities will increase. COVID-19 vaccine development, along with science, technology and climate change, will be key areas of focus in bilateral consultations.


Subject India-Europe ties. Significance Negotiations between India and the EU for a free-trade agreement (FTA) are to recommence in January. These talks began in 2007 and have been paused many times -- most recently in August 2015, over the EU's banning of 700 Indian generic drugs. Impacts India's rivalry with Pakistan is the greatest impediment to South Asian economic cooperation. European partners risk alienating voters by appearing soft on immigration. India will not allow its European links to erode other key alliances, especially its defence ties with Russia.


Subject FTA impact on business. Significance London and Brussels will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) in February. While an FTA is far preferable to trading without one in place, it will pose significant bureaucratic and financial costs for business. Impacts The first key obstacle is deciding on the sequencing of the talks, with London anxious to not allow the EU to dictate the timetable again. London will hope that this phase of talks exposes EU divisions, which could put pressure on Brussels to compromise on important issues. Brexit uncertainty means businesses will continue delaying significant investment decisions, which will dampen growth in 2020.


Subject EU-Vietnam trade ties. Significance Trade between the EU and Vietnam will grow following the signing of a free-trade agreement (FTA) on August 4. The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) is the first the EU has concluded with a developing country and the second with an ASEAN member after Singapore. Impacts South-east Asian competition over trade with Europe will increase. EVFTA's success will rely on business awareness of the agreement's provisions. The deal will not hasten conclusion of a pan-ASEAN-EU free-trade agreement


Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance The first round of virtual UK-US free trade negotiations began on Tuesday May 5 and conclude today. While a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States is a stated priority for the UK government, it will be difficult to conclude a comprehensive deal this year, in particular due to divisions over agrifood and medicine, while there is also not enough time. However, the chances of the United Kingdom and United States agreeing a deal narrower in scope than a fully-fledged FTA are higher. Impacts The main obstacles in reaching an FTA will be regulatory ones. It will be almost impossible for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. Washington knows an FTA is politically important for the Conservative government, giving it leverage to shape a favourable deal.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document