EU-UK FTA leaves open the prospect of future conflict

Significance The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers. Impacts The deal will make it slightly easier to reach a UK-US free trade agreement, though strong divisions remain. The strict conditionality associated with the FTA suggests Euroscepticism will remain an important feature of UK politics. The process and costs associated with Brexit makes it less likely that Eurosceptic member states will attempt to leave the EU.

2018 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-32
Author(s):  
Rumiana Yotova

ON 16 May 2017, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) delivered its Opinion 2/15 concerning the competence of the EU to conclude the Free Trade Agreement with Singapore (EUSFTA) (ECLI:EU:C:2017:376). The Opinion was requested by the Commission which argued, with the support of the European Parliament (EP), that the EU had exclusive competence to conclude the EUSFTA. The Council and 25 of the Member States countered that the EUSFTA should be concluded as a mixed agreement – that is, by the EU and each of its members – because some of its provisions fell under the shared competence of the organisation or the competence of the Member States alone.


Significance The two sides have long been dialogue partners. They are widely expected to step up negotiations over an inter-regional free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts ASEAN and the EU will collaborate more over COVID-19 recovery efforts, including development and supply of vaccines. The two sides will expedite talks on an air transport agreement to boost connectivity. Non-traditional security issues such as climate change will be key areas of focus in bilateral consultations.


Significance The country's vote to leave the EU has added momentum to a realignment of UK economic and foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific region underway for some years. Parliamentarian Richard Graham, a prime ministerial trade envoy, visited Manila in late August to explore the prospects for closer ties, including a Philippines-UK free trade agreement (FTA). Impacts China will tolerate greater Philippine-UK engagement if London stays out of South China Sea disputes. If controversy over Duterte's crime crackdown grows, May might face domestic political pressures to keep Manila at arm's length for now. Duterte's abrasive political style may deter fresh investment pledges. Closer defence ties with Manila would aid improvements in the United Kingdom's ties with ASEAN and its other members.


Subject India-Europe ties. Significance Negotiations between India and the EU for a free-trade agreement (FTA) are to recommence in January. These talks began in 2007 and have been paused many times -- most recently in August 2015, over the EU's banning of 700 Indian generic drugs. Impacts India's rivalry with Pakistan is the greatest impediment to South Asian economic cooperation. European partners risk alienating voters by appearing soft on immigration. India will not allow its European links to erode other key alliances, especially its defence ties with Russia.


Subject FTA impact on business. Significance London and Brussels will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) in February. While an FTA is far preferable to trading without one in place, it will pose significant bureaucratic and financial costs for business. Impacts The first key obstacle is deciding on the sequencing of the talks, with London anxious to not allow the EU to dictate the timetable again. London will hope that this phase of talks exposes EU divisions, which could put pressure on Brussels to compromise on important issues. Brexit uncertainty means businesses will continue delaying significant investment decisions, which will dampen growth in 2020.


Subject EU-Vietnam trade ties. Significance Trade between the EU and Vietnam will grow following the signing of a free-trade agreement (FTA) on August 4. The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) is the first the EU has concluded with a developing country and the second with an ASEAN member after Singapore. Impacts South-east Asian competition over trade with Europe will increase. EVFTA's success will rely on business awareness of the agreement's provisions. The deal will not hasten conclusion of a pan-ASEAN-EU free-trade agreement


Subject UK-US trade talks. Significance The first round of virtual UK-US free trade negotiations began on Tuesday May 5 and conclude today. While a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States is a stated priority for the UK government, it will be difficult to conclude a comprehensive deal this year, in particular due to divisions over agrifood and medicine, while there is also not enough time. However, the chances of the United Kingdom and United States agreeing a deal narrower in scope than a fully-fledged FTA are higher. Impacts The main obstacles in reaching an FTA will be regulatory ones. It will be almost impossible for London to address regulatory obstacles with the United States without increasing them in trade with the EU. Washington knows an FTA is politically important for the Conservative government, giving it leverage to shape a favourable deal.


2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-37
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Junaidi

Using trade flows data of ASEAN countries and China from 2002 to 2017, this studyestimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China’s trade balance in general,and also for Indonesia’s trade balance in specific by elaborating the impact of ACFTA onthe trade flows both exports and imports. Using the gravity model and estimating by OLSand PPML, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementationof ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China in general, andfor Indonesia in particular. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN membercountries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact ofACFTA on exports. Tariff’s elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA on Indonesiashows a negative and statistically insignificant effect on imports and exports. Thus, tariffshave not played significant role on increasing Indonesia’s exports and imports. As a result,the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia’s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly since theimpact of tariffs on exports and imports are not significant.


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