Colombia’s economy will begin to recover in 2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
The Government

Significance This partial revival, fuelled by an increase in household consumption, nevertheless fell short of offsetting the devastating effects of the strict COVID-19 lockdown measures imposed in the first half of the year. The economy closed 2020 with a 6.8% contraction, according to the latest figures published by the national statistics agency. Impacts The Central Bank will maintain its accommodative stance to support economic recovery; inflation expectations remain well anchored. The weakness of the ruling coalition in Congress will see Duque struggle to advance his agenda. Protests will resume as restrictions ease and the government ends financial support measures delivered over the last year.

Donor commitments could kickstart Madagascar recovery

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Facility ◽  
The Government ◽  
Made In ◽  
Governance Reforms

Significance The aim was to build on progress made in July when the government secured a three-year IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme. The country’s central bank reported that donors committed to over 6.4 billion dollars in financial support, with subsequent estimates as high as 10 billion dollars. Impacts Passing budgetary measures will prove difficult due to a thin parliamentary majority. The government will likely prioritise EU reform and infrastructure demands -- Brussels has pledged 800 million euros over four years. Failure to implement governance reforms could lead to a suspension of IMF funding.

Pakistan will struggle to widen tax base

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
The Government

Significance He will release a mini-budget on January 23. Revenue collection in the first half of fiscal year 2018/19 (July-June) showed 3.8% annual growth. The government targets a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP for 2018/19, down from 6.6% in 2017/18. Impacts Financial support from allies will shape Pakistan’s diplomacy, Islamabad likely to align more closely with Saudi policy. By avoiding an IMF bailout for now, Pakistan would be able to avoid US pressure during talks with the Fund. The central bank will likely undertake monetary tightening.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

India’s 5G auction will boost Reliance’s digital plans

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Sector Banks ◽  
Spectrum Auction ◽  
Floor Price ◽  
The Government

Significance This came after the government announced plans for a 4G spectrum auction in March 2021, after a five-year gap. There is growing speculation that this will be followed by an auction of 5G spectrum later in the year. Impacts Reliance’s lead on 5G will boost its broader digital business strategy. New financial support to indebted telcos will help to avoid further strain on public sector banks. Data tariffs are likely to remain competitive in India, even after a new floor price.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

RUFO expiration will not end Argentina debt lawsuits

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Debt Markets ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Government ◽  
Severe Shortage

Significance Debt markets have failed to pressure Argentina to end the impasse with holdouts, with the government arguing that it could not offer them new terms without offering similar concessions to holders of restructured debt. With elections scheduled for October, the current government is likely to kick the problem to its successor, leaving Argentina facing continued litigation in US and UK courts. Impacts The Central Bank has effectively managed drawdowns of dollar reserves, helping the government to maintain its hard line against holdouts. While this policy persists, the country will remain locked out of international capital markets. The severe shortage of dollars will continue, and will continue to dampen growth prospects until resolved.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

Kenyan MPs will assert legislative independence

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Party Support ◽  
The Relationship

Significance The bill received cross-party support in parliament, illustrating its independence from the executive, which opposes the bill. The relationship between the executive and legislative branches is complex, with constituents and the president vying for influence among lawmakers. Impacts MPs will oscillate between independence and compliance over the next twelve months. By vetoing the banking legislation, Kenyatta risks opposing a popular measure with elections looming. Banks will compromise with the government and central bank on self-regulation to avoid legislated rates.

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