Modi’s party may be close to power in West Bengal

Significance Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) has governed the state for a decade. It faces a tough challenge in the upcoming poll from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Impacts Poll-related violence will likely escalate during the month-long election as rival supporters take to the streets. In the four other elections taking place in March-April, the BJP’s alliance will perform best in Assam and Puducherry. Defeat for the TMC in West Bengal could lead to the party’s disintegration.

Subject The movement to create a separate Gorkhaland out of West Bengal state. Significance After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government last month abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status, and divided the state into two union territories, speculation grew that the Modi administration might try to hive off West Bengal state’s Gorkhaland region, currently administered by a semi-autonomous Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA). Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to strengthen its position in West Bengal, currently governed by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). Impacts Agitation in Gorkhaland could set back tourism, a major source of income for the area, and India’s tea industry, a major employer there. The alleged exclusion of 100,000 Gorkhas from Assam state’s National Register of Citizens may hurt the BJP’s image in northern West Bengal. Gorkha politicians who have turned to the BJP may desert the party if higher-level officials continue to prevaricate over Gorkhaland.


Subject The nationally ruling Bharatiya Janata Party's ambitions in West Bengal state. Significance West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee last month issued a fresh challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as she turned attention to the 2021 state election. In the recent general election, the BJP won just four fewer parliamentary seats in West Bengal than Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). Impacts There will be frequent outbreaks of violence between TMC and BJP cadres in West Bengal. Banerjee will encourage external investment in the state and promise new jobs, hoping to appeal to voters. The BJP’s rhetoric over immigration could strain India’s relations with Bangladesh.


Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.


Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), retained a majority in Assam and won in Puducherry. It fared less well elsewhere: the BJP failed to gain power in West Bengal, despite campaigning especially hard there. Impacts Violence in West Bengal involving rival supporters will likely continue for several more weeks. BJP strategists will now focus on the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, determined to ensure the party holds power in that key state. Congress, India’s main opposition party, faces a deepening crisis of confidence after its underwhelming poll performance.


Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier in the month that the reforms would be revoked. The laws sparked a major protest movement among farmers, who maintained that the legislation favoured corporate players over them. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) probably feared that the agitation would hurt it in some of the state elections due early next year. Impacts Modi’s government may in the medium term try to revive aspects of the repealed legislation in a piecemeal way. The BJP will step up appeals to Hindu nationalism in the upcoming state polls, hoping to shore up support from its base. Any crackdown by security forces on ongoing farmer protests would work against Modi’s party in the elections.


Significance The dialogue centred on how to work more cooperatively to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government ahead of the next general election, due in 2024. The National Democratic Alliance, led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), had landslide wins in the 2014 and 2019 polls. Impacts The BJP will try to destabilise rival parties by encouraging their lawmakers to quit them. West Bengal state’s ruling All India Trinamool Congress, a major BJP opponent, will become more influential in the north-east. Muslims may feel increasingly vulnerable to verbal and physical attacks.


Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.


Significance Each of these states except Punjab has a government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Punjab is one of just three states with a chief minister that belongs to India’s main opposition Congress party. Impacts A poor showing by Congress would further reduce its leverage with other opposition parties in talks over forming a broad anti-Modi alliance. Victory in UP would enhance Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s national profile. Election campaigning will likely lead to a spike in COVID-19 cases.


Subject E-commerce in India. Significance Following nationwide protests from small traders in late 2014, key sections of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government have demanded that Prime Minister Narendra Modi act against India's rapidly growing e-commerce platforms. Particular targets are the largest e-commerce players, mostly Indian, but including Amazon India, which have benefitted from large infusions of foreign capital and stand accused of side-stepping India's strict limits on foreign investment in multi-brand retail. Impacts Any improvement in transport and distribution infrastructure will boost e-commerce. Proliferation of mobile and banking facilities is key to expanding online retail. Small traders will oppose the expansion of e-commerce, causing greater political losses for the BJP than any other party.


Subject Forthcoming state elections. Significance Legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala states, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, will be held between April 4 and May 19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a strong contender only in Assam. The overall results will have a significant bearing on his economic reform agenda. Impacts A communal campaign by the BJP in West Bengal would prevent an alliance with the TMC. The GST and land reform bills will not pass until parliamentary gridlock ends. Poor showing in forthcoming polls will dampen investor confidence in Modi.


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