India's state polls hold key to Modi's reform agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Strong Contender ◽  
Union Territory ◽  
Significant Bearing

Subject Forthcoming state elections. Significance Legislative assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala states, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, will be held between April 4 and May 19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is a strong contender only in Assam. The overall results will have a significant bearing on his economic reform agenda. Impacts A communal campaign by the BJP in West Bengal would prevent an alliance with the TMC. The GST and land reform bills will not pass until parliamentary gridlock ends. Poor showing in forthcoming polls will dampen investor confidence in Modi.

Modi may yet face a real opposition if it can unite

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Communal Violence ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The likely strategy of the BJP's opponents. Significance The opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lacks a coherent strategy at national level ahead of elections due in 2019. However, the large turnout at a public rally in Patna late last month, where Lalu Prasad Yadav brought together representatives of 18 opposition parties, suggests that there is popular support for a challenge to the BJP. Impacts States in which elections are due are more likely to see outbreaks of communal violence. Sonia Gandhi will come under increasing pressure to relinquish leadership of the Congress party. The BJP may support the creation of a separate Gorkhaland, at the risk of alienating support in the rest of West Bengal.

Modi’s party will not yet think of separate Gorkhaland

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
National Register ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tea Industry ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject The movement to create a separate Gorkhaland out of West Bengal state. Significance After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government last month abrogated Jammu and Kashmir’s special constitutional status, and divided the state into two union territories, speculation grew that the Modi administration might try to hive off West Bengal state’s Gorkhaland region, currently administered by a semi-autonomous Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA). Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming to strengthen its position in West Bengal, currently governed by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC). Impacts Agitation in Gorkhaland could set back tourism, a major source of income for the area, and India’s tea industry, a major employer there. The alleged exclusion of 100,000 Gorkhas from Assam state’s National Register of Citizens may hurt the BJP’s image in northern West Bengal. Gorkha politicians who have turned to the BJP may desert the party if higher-level officials continue to prevaricate over Gorkhaland.

Election results give Modi’s rivals some hope

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Election Results

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), retained a majority in Assam and won in Puducherry. It fared less well elsewhere: the BJP failed to gain power in West Bengal, despite campaigning especially hard there. Impacts Violence in West Bengal involving rival supporters will likely continue for several more weeks. BJP strategists will now focus on the 2022 Uttar Pradesh election, determined to ensure the party holds power in that key state. Congress, India’s main opposition party, faces a deepening crisis of confidence after its underwhelming poll performance.

Outlook for upcoming polls is mixed for Modi’s party

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
Public Consciousness

Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governs in Assam with the support of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, while another NDA party rules in Tamil Nadu. In Puducherry, a governing coalition led by India’s main opposition Congress party recently collapsed. Impacts Congress infighting over leadership will intensify, weakening the party further. The Citizenship (Amendment) Act will again stir debate nationally, having somewhat disappeared from public consciousness amid the pandemic. Modi’s recent liberal market reforms, which have prompted protests in some parts of India, are unlikely to be much of a factor in the polls.

Anti-Modi front would need Congress support to succeed

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
United Front

Significance Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had mixed results in recent state elections; it notably failed to displace Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) from power in the key battleground of West Bengal. The main opposition Congress party’s poll performance was, as expected, underwhelming. Impacts The 2022 Uttar Pradesh state poll will be the immediate focus for electoral strategists in the BJP and other locally influential parties. Congress will struggle to overcome infighting over its presidency even as it asserts its credentials to lead a broad anti-Modi alliance. Modi’s government may open corruption cases against key opposition leaders in a bid to distract them from efforts to form a united front.

Bihar sets back Modi's economic agenda for India

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
State Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won only 58. The result has implications for Modi's economic agenda and the broader use of identity politics for electoral gain. Impacts State-level cooperation for Modi's reform agenda could decline. Public protests against the BJP's political and cultural agendas are likely to intensify. This may generate fresh criticism from key financial institutions such as credit ratings agencies.

India will see anti-Modi Federal Front in early 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Jobless Growth ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Chief Minister ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 314 seats in the 545-member parliamentary lower house. Congress, which leads the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), has 48 seats, short of the 10% minimum required for it to nominate the leader of the opposition. Regionally influential politicians such as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and former Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mayawati have called for a broad anti-BJP alliance ahead of the general election due early next year. Impacts Modi’s personality will be a critical factor in election campaigning. The opposition will try to undermine Modi by highlighting the jobless growth and religious discord under BJP rule. The BJP and its opponents will try to project themselves as the champions of farmers in a bid to increase their rural support.

India’s ruling party will resist creating new states

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Tea Industry ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
New States ◽  
Hindi Language ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Agitations in India to create new states. Significance Home Minister Rajnath Singh last month negotiated an end to a 104-day protest by the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), which had sought the excision of a separate Gorkhaland from West Bengal state. India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has historically been a strong advocate of state-led development and even new states, but its willingness to redraw the map of India is declining. Impacts Darjeeling’s tea industry may continue to suffer losses in the short term but will recover thereafter. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) should improve states’ fiscal balances in the long term. The BJP may step up efforts to promote the Hindi language across India.

Namibia’s president faces increased election troubles

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Reform ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Electronic Voting ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Legal Challenge ◽  
Black Economic ◽  
Black Economic Empowerment ◽  
The Government

Significance Geingob faces a vigorous challenge from independent candidate Dr Panduleni Itula, who has capitalised on the ongoing ‘Fishrot’ corruption scandal that has engulfed the government and unnerved the ruling SWAPO party. Meanwhile, a legal challenge to the use of electronic voting machines (EVMs) risks delaying the poll. Impacts Populist policies on black economic empowerment, investment and land reform will continue to undermine wider investor confidence. Concerns about the reliability of EVMs may see the legitimacy of the election questioned. Lack of significant rainfall will worsen conditions for the quarter of the population requiring food aid amid an ongoing drought emergency.

Modi’s party may be close to power in West Bengal

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Significance Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) has governed the state for a decade. It faces a tough challenge in the upcoming poll from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Impacts Poll-related violence will likely escalate during the month-long election as rival supporters take to the streets. In the four other elections taking place in March-April, the BJP’s alliance will perform best in Assam and Puducherry. Defeat for the TMC in West Bengal could lead to the party’s disintegration.

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