Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

Mongolia mine move raises nationalisation fears

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Mining Company ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Main Obstacle ◽  
The Government

Subject The sale of the Erdenet mine. Significance The day before parliamentary elections in June last year, Prime Minister Saikhanbileg Chimed announced the sale of 49% of shares held by the Russian government in the Erdenet Mining Corporation and the Mongolrostsvetmet mining company to Mongolia Copper Corporation, an unknown private Mongolian company. Subsequent parliamentary inquiry concluded that the sale was unconstitutional and the government ordered the shares transferred to the state on February 16 this year. The government’s actions received wide public support while polls reveal that the electorate views corruption as the main obstacle to Mongolia’s development Impacts Talk of 'nationalisation' in the Western media threatens to derail Mongolia's efforts to fix its image and attract foreign investors. The unusual circumstances of the sale raise suspicions of corruption and collusion between Mongolia's previous government and largest bank. The new government's will to scrutinise sale demonstrates the strength of Mongolia’s democracy.

Central Mali violence risks wider spillover

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Central Region ◽  
The State ◽  
Ethnic Violence ◽  
Response Mechanism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Joint Force ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
G5 Sahel Joint Force ◽  
Humanitarian Work

Subject Ethnic violence. Significance More than 202,000 people have been displaced in central and northern Mali this year, according to a July assessment by the Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM), which coordinates humanitarian work. Levels of violence have nearly doubled, with 599 fatalities in the first half of 2019 compared with 333 in the same period last year, according to data from ACLED. In recognition of this, the UN Security Council has expanded the mandate of the Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to include stabilisation of Mali's increasingly restive central region. Impacts The security situation may increase the authorities’ bunker mentality and could empower northern actors to further sideline the state. Neither the UN nor France is likely to withdraw from Mali any time soon. The viability of the G5 Sahel Joint Force will eventually be called into question.

New UN mission is unlikely to stem rising Haiti unrest

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Pressure ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Un Security Council

Subject New UN mission. Significance The UN Security Council announced in late June that it had approved a new mission to Haiti, which will start up in October immediately following the drawdown of its current mission. The move signifies the ongoing commitment to Haiti of the UN, which has been present in the country since 2004. Three successive missions launched by the organisation have had reduced military peacekeeping components in recognition of Haiti’s improving stability. However, with political and social unrest rising, Haiti may feel the lack of an international component to support its fledgling security forces. Impacts The end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians in the United States in 2020 will exacerbate social pressure on Haiti. The Dominican Republic may increase border security during Haiti’s protests in order to prevent any migration surges across the border. The new UN mission is currently open-ended and could be revised should tensions worsen.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Earthquake complicates Haiti's long-term challenges

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Black Market ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Assistance ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Socioeconomic Challenges

Significance The 7.2-magnitude earthquake caused widespread damage to buildings and infrastructure. The disaster comes amid political turmoil, following the assassination of President Jovenel Moise last month, and threatens to compound pre-existing socioeconomic challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, surging crime rates, and fuel shortages in some areas. Impacts The Dominican Republic is sending aid, but will also increase security along its border to prevent increased migration. Gangs will seek to extort humanitarian groups or siphon off relief supplies to sell on the black market. Henry’s increased reliance on external assistance could affect trust in his administration, especially if elections are delayed too long.

Russia may entrench its influence in CAR

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Security Council ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Sites ◽  
Un Security Council

Significance Russia on June 28 rejected as “lies” similar allegations by the United States, United Kingdom and France at the UN Security Council. The exchanges come against the backdrop of rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and France in CAR. Impacts Touadera’s ongoing offensive against rebel forces threatens to deliver a fatal blow to the peace deal he struck with them in 2019. Expanding Russian control over key mining sites could be a persistent source of frictions absent sophisticated local arrangements. Human rights concerns will deter some African leaders from engaging with Russia, but not all.

Economic demise set to continue, but farming is a hope

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Relations ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The hryvnia crisis, which has seen the currency's value plummet, has deepened. However, as reported by Reuters, the NBU decision was suddenly reversed following heavy criticism from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who said the move was bad for the economy. Overall, Ukraine's economy continues to be weak and vulnerable to shocks. The local economy had already been struggling for most of 2012-13, owing largely to weak external demand and deteriorating trade relations with Russia. However, the political turmoil that the country found itself in soon after the February 2014 change of power exacerbated these troubles significantly. Impacts Continued economic decline will prompt the government to take new unpopular belt-tightening measures in order to get international aid. Rapid economic reforms increase the risk of mass social discontent with far-reaching political implications. Should key merchandise exports fall further, producers could face an effective loss of their main markets.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

South African foreign policy will see cosmetic changes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
South African ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Land Reform ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council

Subject South African foreign policy. Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa has focused largely on domestic issues in his first six months in office. However, a push for new foreign direct investment of 100 billion dollars over five years, coupled with the securing of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council from 2019-20, have raised hopes of a fresh foreign policy approach across several fronts. Impacts Despite Ramaphosa's reassurances, radical land reform proposals could undermine attempts to improve the wider investment climate. New US tariffs on steel, aluminium and possibly automobiles could offset advantages from the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Confidence-building economic measures will be necessary to stem the large sale of government bonds by foreigners.

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