Kazakhstan reliant on Russia but not compliant

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
Economic Function ◽  
Economic Risks

Significance Russia has long had ambitions to invest the EEU with political as well as economic function, but Kazakhstan has resisted this strongly. The Kazakh authorities still see the EEU as a vital mechanism for intra-regional trade. However, proximity to the dominant economy has downsides, and there are signs that Kazakhstan is vulnerable to economic risks emanating from Russia. Impacts The Russian elite seems oblivious to the anger the EEU sanctions issue has created in Kazakhstan. Belarus's new anti-West stance sets it and Russia apart in the five-member EEU. EEU scepticism could shift Kazakh-Russian relations substantially once Nursultan Nazarbayev finally leaves the political scene.

Moldovan armed forces will need continued NATO support

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Capacity Building ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Moldova's armed forces. Significance Russia's military build-up in Crimea and other parts of the continent, combined with its intervention in Syria, continue to alarm nations in Eastern Europe. With Moscow maintaining a military contingent in Transnistria and its growing military presence regionally, Moldova's armed forces and their relations with NATO will come under greater focus. However, Moldova's financial plight will make military reform and boosting defence spending difficult. Impacts The banking scandal that has rocked the political scene will push defence reform lower down the political agenda. A more militarily capable Moldova would be a useful partner for Ukraine in the future. Moldova may be invited to participate in more NATO exercises to enhance capacity-building measures.

Iraq’s elections point to broad-based unity cabinet

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Government ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Reforms ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Iraq is struggling to finalise the results of national elections on May 12. However, the probable broad outlines of the next parliament are already visible, with the political scene still deeply fractured. Impacts Postponement of the 2019 budget will put off much-needed fiscal reforms. Sub-national elections due later in 2018 may be disrupted by national government formation. Any attempt to exclude militia factions from government could drive up security risks.

Mauritania opposition crackdown aims at 2019 election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gold Mine ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Journalists say the move is part of a wider crackdown that includes a judicial campaign against senate members who dispute the government’s right to abolish the upper house after winning a constitutional referendum on August 5. Officially, the focus of the crackdown is concern that an exiled businessman, Mohamed Bouamatou, may be financing opponents of the regime. However, the strategy also has a wider intimidatory effect on opponents and independent voices that might scrutinise the government. Mohamed Ould Ghadda, one of the most prominent critics, is already in jail, journalists and trade unionists have been subjected to questioning and the state prosecutor is pursuing other senators. Impacts The senate’s abolition removes a key institutional channel through which opponents can try to hold the government to account. Abdelaziz will become even more dominant on the political scene now that the senate has been shut down. The start of gas exports from the Tortue field in 2021 and expansion of the Tasiast gold mine will boost the government’s confidence.

Likely Israeli coalition will quickly step up spending

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Religious Right ◽  
The Political ◽  
Equal Division ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Composition and agenda of a likely unity government. Significance De facto opposition leader Benny Gantz on March 26 agreed to enter a coalition with incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The government, terms for which have yet to be finalised, would end the political deadlock that three back-to-back elections failed to break. Although the prospective coalition will enjoy a Knesset majority of at least 75 seats, it will also cover a wide and awkward ideological spectrum. Impacts Netanyahu will remain the dominant figure on the political scene for another 18 months, if not beyond. Equal division of portfolios between Blue and White and religious-right parties will mean a more moderate government than the previous one. Gantz’s decision has split his party and leaves the centre-left weaker and more divided than ever. The new coalition will address issues that have been put on hold during the extended interregnum and restore normal government functioning.

Croatian president and premier unlikely to agree

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Limited Capacity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
The Eu

Significance Centre-left candidate Zoran Milanovic won the second round with 53% of the vote. Grabar-Kitarovic’s embarrassing campaign performance only partly explains her humiliating second-round defeat; more significant is the growing split in the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which backed her. The political scene may see major changes, but not necessarily a move to the left. Impacts Political turmoil will hamper Croatia’s already limited capacity to handle its rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. A change of president may improve Croatia's poor relations with neighbours Bosnia and Serbia. Milanovic is a known quantity whose personal, political and diplomatic capacity will be an improvement on Grabar-Kitarovic’s. Milanovic has frosty relations with Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, and Bosniaks remember him saying privately that Bosnia was not a country. Plenkovic’s weakened position will affect the Bosnian HDZ's leader, Dragan Covic, seen as neglecting Bosnian Croat interests.

Prospects for Africa in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Risks

Subject Prospects for Africa in the second quarter. Significance Nigeria's tightly-contested election dominates the political outlook in the coming quarter, posing an unprecedented test for the democratic credentials and institutions of the continent's largest economy. Economically, oil exporters face fiscal and foreign exchange earnings falls, putting a drag on regional growth rates. Regional disparities are also significant. Oil importers can expect a boost to budgetary and external accounts. However, the mixed global outlook will usher in other economic risks.

Bosnia's problematic party scene will delay reform

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Culture ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Pluralism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Government Institutions ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Party congresses' ratcheting up of political tensions. Significance Many of the divisions and problems present in executive, legislative, judicial and other institutions at all administrative levels in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) derive from structural weaknesses in the political scene and poor political culture. All main parties are likely to maintain or further radicalise their positions, destabilising an already difficult political situation. This, in turn, could bring down the reform agenda which is under a tight, year-end deadline, jeopardising financial liquidity and challenging an EU breakthrough. Impacts The easy re-election of party leaders with little or no opposition shows the continuing low level of democracy and political pluralism. Some parties' congress declarations clearly show the further advance of radical nationalist and separatist agendas. BiH's patronage system will continue to impair the capacities of political parties and the effectiveness of government institutions.

Prospects for Israel in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Scene

Subject Prospects for Israel in 2020. Significance The political scene is currently in deadlock after a second inconclusive election in September; Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition Blue and White alliance, currently has the mandate to form the next coalition after incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu failed. Talks are ongoing around how to form a national unity government.

Garcia's death will not revive APRA's fortunes in Peru

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Judicial Activism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Face ◽  
Car Wash ◽  
Political Scene

Significance Garcia’s death removes from the political scene one of Peru’s most influential politicians. The twice former-president had been closely identified as a recipient of bribes from the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht, although he consistently denied allegations against him. He was one of several senior political figures, both in Peru and in Latin America more broadly, to be embroiled in the so-called ‘Car Wash’ investigation. Impacts APRA’s ability to rebuild political support in the country is doubtful. The Peruvian and Brazilian examples of judicial activism will not necessarily be paralleled elsewhere. President Martin Vizcarra will push ahead with his reform agenda in the face of congressional opposition.

Elections conduct will cloud Niger's new presidency

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Heads Of State ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The ruling party’s Mohamed Bazoum won the February 21 second round with 55.75% of the vote against 44.25% for former President Mahamane Ousmane. Ousmane, an ally of Amadou, alleged fraud and refused to accept the results. Impacts Bazoum will enter office with good relationships with his fellow Sahelian and African heads of state, to whom he is a well-known figure. Bazoum should have the parliamentary muscle to carry out his agenda; the ruling party has a plurality of seats. Key politicians have now been fixtures of the political scene since the 1990s, eliciting a sense of political stagnation among the young.

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