Eastern revolt will complicate Sudan’s transition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Armed Opposition Groups ◽  
Umbrella Group ◽  
Eastern Sudan

Significance On the same day, a dissident faction of the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) -- the umbrella group of protest leaders, political parties and armed opposition groups behind the civilian cabinet -- made the same demand. These calls reflect intensifying rifts within government, amplified by a recent failed coup and protests in eastern Sudan. Impacts An anti-corruption body may assume some functions of the ‘Empowerment Removal Commission’, which has faced accusations of politicisation. Fears that Sudan’s ports will remain vulnerable to future stoppages will further deter foreign investment. The military may continue to deepen ties with native leaders to offset the influence of its rivals in government.

Myanmar's opposition looks to 2020

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Action ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
Opposition Group ◽  
The Military

Significance The National League for Democracy (NLD), which will soon form its first government, holds 390 of the 664 seats in parliament's two houses, or 58.7% after taking account of the 25% of seats reserved for the military. The former governing party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), is now the largest elected opposition group with 42 seats, or 6.3%. The NLD's majority constricts parliamentary political opposition. Impacts Ethnicity-based political parties may perform strongly in the 2020 election. Other 'progressive' political parties could undermine the NLD down to 2020. There could be more use of direct political action, including protests.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Long-term security will elude Pakistan military courts

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Democratic Governance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Spending ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Way

Significance A response to the deadly December 16 Peshawar terrorist attack, the legislation paves the way for re-establishing military courts to try suspected terrorists in an expeditious manner. Although all major political parties voted for the change, the idea of military courts amid civilian rule has generated bitter debate about their impact on democratic governance and efficacy in combating terrorism. Impacts Pakistan-India ties are likely to be damaged by the amendments that grant the military a legal cover to choose 'good' and 'bad' jihadis. However, Pakistan's ties with Washington could improve. Civilian finance is likely for the military courts, shrinking Islamabad's already inadequate development spending.

Yingluck impeachment raises Thai political stakes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Criminal Charges ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
The Military ◽  
Election Commission

Significance Her impeachment is part of the junta's broader effort permanently to prevent the Shinawatra family from regaining power. The second step, Yingluck's arraignment before the Supreme Court on criminal charges also related to the rice scheme, will take place in February. In addition, the Election Commission has announced that it, too, may bring charges against Yingluck in coming weeks, allegedly for using government funds for her election campaign last February. Impacts The military can prevent any violent uprising by Thaksin supporters -- for the time being. Should the junta overplay its hand, the risk of an uprising would rise, potentially jeopardising foreign investment. The risk of tighter international sanctions against Thailand is minimal.

Thai junta tightens crackdown ahead of charter vote

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Online Activism ◽  
New Democracy ◽  
The Military ◽  
Draft Constitution

Subject The political outlook for Thailand. Significance Thailand has scheduled a referendum on a new draft constitution on August 7. The pre-referendum period has been marked by a crackdown on political dissent, but also a spike in organised opposition to the junta by student-led bodies as well as new groups such as the Resistant Citizen and New Democracy Movement. Impacts A crackdown on online activism will create reputational and business risks for social media platforms. The military will monopolise politics regardless of the referendum result, further weakening political parties. International observers will maintain their distance from Bangkok but also avoid a direct confrontation.

Thailand’s Prayut will face pushback over order

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
Negative Report ◽  
The Military

Subject Opposition reaction to the Thai junta's order on political parties. Significance Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on December 22 used emergency powers to change the recently passed Political Parties Act, leaving parties with a one-month period in April 2018 to re-register members. Nipit Intarasombat, deputy leader of the royalist Democrat Party, on December 25 said his party could lose 2 million members due to the limited timeframe. The Act and Prayut’s order are galvanising opposition to the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). Impacts Cooperation between the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) and Democrats will not endure beyond their opposition to Prayut’s order. The possible creation of a pro-military party in March could result in a number of defections from PTP and Democrat leaders. A extended stand-off between the ruling junta and the Democrats will not affect the military’s legitimacy. Though unlikely, a negative report on Prawit by the NACC may force Prayut to remove a strong ally from the cabinet. Pressures surrounding the election and corruption will not affect recent improvements in economic growth.

Election results will intensify Algeria's crises

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Opposite Effect ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movement ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Military

Significance The elections revived political parties that had been marginalised by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s administration and had been criticised by the ‘Hirak’ protest movement. Tebboune had intended the polls to put an end to the Hirak protesters and to concentrate his power but they have had the opposite effect and, rather than resolving Algeria’s political crisis, they have made it worse. Impacts A parliament at odds with the president will mean that Algeria will be unable to implement policies to address its economic crisis. The persistence of the Hirak movement raises the chance of a confrontation with security forces, which could lead to widespread unrest. Tebboune may resign under pressure from the military if economic conditions worsen and demonstrations become violent.

Thailand’s poll will be delayed beyond February 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Latest on Thailand's long-awaited elections. Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha recently suggested the general election would be held only after the coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, after earlier saying it would occur by February 2019 at the latest. The ban imposed by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on political activities remains in place, but the Constitutional Court has cleared the organic laws governing political parties and MPs. The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) faces the prospect of losing members to the new pro-military Phalang Pracharat party. Impacts Pressures surrounding the poll will not affect the government’s spending plans. Prayut will likely engage in negotiations with veteran politicians and provincial clans to canvass support ahead of the elections. Despite improvement in EU-Thailand ties, full normalisation will only happen under a civilian government.

scholarly journals User engagement with political “facts” in the context of the fake news phenomenon

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 1082-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Marcella ◽  
Graeme Baxter ◽  
Agnieszka Walicka
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Information Quality ◽  
User Engagement ◽  
Government Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Subject Knowledge ◽  
Perceived Credibility ◽  
North East ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Quality Awareness

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a study that explored human behaviour in response to political “facts” presented online by political parties in Scotland. Design/methodology/approach The study consisted of interactive online interviews with 23 citizens in North-East Scotland, in the run-up to the 2017 UK General Election. Findings Participants demonstrated cognitive and critical responses to facts but little affective reaction. They judged facts swiftly and largely intuitively, providing evidence that facts are frequently consumed, accepted or rejected without further verification processes. Users demonstrated varying levels of engagement with the information they consume, and subject knowledge may influence the extent to which respondents trust facts, in previously unanticipated ways. Users tended to notice facts with which they disagreed and, in terms of prominence, particularly noted and responded to facts which painted extremely negative or positive pictures. Most acknowledged limitations in capacity to interrogate facts, but some were delusionally confident. Originality/value Relatively little empirical research has been conducted exploring the perceived credibility of political or government information online. It is believed that this and a companion study are the first to have specifically investigated the Scottish political arena. This paper presents a new, exploratory fact interrogation model, alongside an expanded information quality awareness model.

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