Thailand’s Prayut may keep power in a civilian regime

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
National Council ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.

Pre-poll loss may hurt Thailand’s key anti-junta party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Constitutional Court earlier this month banned the Thai Raksa Chart Party, an offshoot of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party. A 500-member House of Representatives, based on mixed-member proportional representation, and a 250-member Senate, hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order, will together decide on the next prime minister. Impacts The military will exercise considerable influence over post-election policymaking through the Senate. Foreign direct investment may increase following the installation of a civilian administration. Relations with the West, especially the EU, are likely to improve under a civilian government.

Thailand’s Prayut will face pushback over order

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Powers ◽  
Negative Report ◽  
The Military

Subject Opposition reaction to the Thai junta's order on political parties. Significance Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on December 22 used emergency powers to change the recently passed Political Parties Act, leaving parties with a one-month period in April 2018 to re-register members. Nipit Intarasombat, deputy leader of the royalist Democrat Party, on December 25 said his party could lose 2 million members due to the limited timeframe. The Act and Prayut’s order are galvanising opposition to the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO). Impacts Cooperation between the Pheu Thai Party (PTP) and Democrats will not endure beyond their opposition to Prayut’s order. The possible creation of a pro-military party in March could result in a number of defections from PTP and Democrat leaders. A extended stand-off between the ruling junta and the Democrats will not affect the military’s legitimacy. Though unlikely, a negative report on Prawit by the NACC may force Prayut to remove a strong ally from the cabinet. Pressures surrounding the election and corruption will not affect recent improvements in economic growth.

Thailand’s poll will be delayed beyond February 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Activities ◽  
The Military

Subject Latest on Thailand's long-awaited elections. Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha recently suggested the general election would be held only after the coronation of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, after earlier saying it would occur by February 2019 at the latest. The ban imposed by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) on political activities remains in place, but the Constitutional Court has cleared the organic laws governing political parties and MPs. The Pheu Thai Party (PTP) faces the prospect of losing members to the new pro-military Phalang Pracharat party. Impacts Pressures surrounding the poll will not affect the government’s spending plans. Prayut will likely engage in negotiations with veteran politicians and provincial clans to canvass support ahead of the elections. Despite improvement in EU-Thailand ties, full normalisation will only happen under a civilian government.

Thailand will face regular legislative gridlock

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
National Council ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Military

Significance A seven-party coalition led by the main anti-junta Pheu Thai Party is short of the halfway mark in the 500-member House of Representatives. The pro-junta Phalang Pracharat Party has fewer seats than Pheu Thai. However, with the 250-member Senate hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), it has a strong chance of mustering the requisite support of half the National Assembly (the House and Senate together) to return incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to power. Impacts The military will be the dominant force in Thai politics. Amid flagging exports, the new government could widen tax incentives to boost domestic consumption. Negotiations on an EU-Thailand free trade agreement will likely resume.

Uganda former PM aspirant will provoke backlash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Internal Disruption ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Pre-election politics in Uganda. Significance The long-expected announcement on June 15 by sacked Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi that he will run for president will bring bitter tensions between him and President Yoweri Museveni out into the open. It is highly unlikely to threaten the latter's 30-year rule but may provoke internal disruption within the ruling party as Museveni makes an example of internal dissent. Impacts Loyalty among the military and police forces will remain central to Museveni's power. Museveni effectively distances himself from graft scandals, while Mbabazi's reputation remains tarnished by several high-profile cases. Oil firms could see some benefits, if Museveni decides to assure them of his solid hold on power. The government was already likely to unleash inflation-inducing spending during the election, but Mbabazi's campaign increases this risk.

Political pressure mounts on Japanese media

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
Press Freedom ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Media ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Media ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

Significance The issue of media independence has become a fraught one under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's administration, with perceptions rising among journalists and the public that the government is subjecting the media to political pressure. Critics of the administration speak of censorship and threats to freedom of expression. Japan's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen from 22nd in 2011-12, before Abe took office, to 61st in 2015. Impacts The government seems likely to try to marginalise the criticisms of constitutional scholars, like it marginalises its other critics. International media as well as domestic journalists are likely to feel some pressure from the authorities. In the near term, the issue is unlikely to destabilise the government, or derail passage of security legislation.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Tunisia’s democratic transition will struggle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Democratic Transition ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Government

Significance This follows former Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa’s announcement on March 29 of a new, non-ideological party that includes technocrats and former ministers -- the Alternative Party. Six years after the 2011 Arab uprisings, Tunisian politics is still in flux -- facing serious social and economic challenges. Impacts Protests and industrial strikes will continue in the months ahead as the government tries to reduce public spending. Political parties are losing the trust of the population. Further cabinet reshuffles are likely, but political leaders are wary of making bold structural reforms.

Mexico’s brain drain to continue unabated

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Brain Drain ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Agency ◽  
National Council ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University

Subject Mexico's brain drain. Significance Recent studies suggest increasing numbers of skilled professionals are emigrating from Mexico. A report by the University of Zacatecas (UAZ) published in March shows more than 1.4 million Mexicans with postgraduate degrees left the country between 1990 and 2015 due to a lack of professional development opportunities. According the National Council for Science and Technology (CONACYT), the government agency responsible for policy in this area, 46% of skilled emigrants live in Europe, 30% in the United States, 12% in Latin America and 7% in Canada. Impacts Emigration of skilled workers will be a fiscal burden as it annuls the benefits of investing in human resources. Policies to attract foreign talent could mitigate the problem, but there is no evidence that this is being considered. A contentious election outcome could trigger instability, further fuelling the outward flow of highly skilled Mexicans.

Watershed Thai election is unlikely

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Appeal ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.

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